Favored In Just Four Games
June 6th, 2016
BSPN Explains
Optimism for the 2016 Bucs is easy to find if you avoid computer programs, Vegas oddsmakers, data geeks and fans of fellow NFC South teams.
There’s a huge divide between the human and inhuman brains.
BSPN has shared fresh computer data that claims Tampa Bay will be favored to win only four of its first 15 games. Week 17 is too unpredictable to generate a point spread in June, per the computer system quoted. The Bucs close the season against mighty Carolina at home.
Below are the spreads and games for which the Bucs are considered favorites:
Week 3
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay (-1)
Week 9
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Week 10
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay (-2)
Week 14
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay (-3)
Joe’s not surprised to find a load of negativity from the data-driven sources. The Bucs have shown little if any home-field advantage, and the team’s defense is a complete mystery.
Human sources, from Kurt Warner to Jason La Canfora to J.P. Peterson to Chucky, have painted a much more rosy outlook.
June 6th, 2016 at 10:47 am
no respect I tell ya. (not surprising of course)
June 6th, 2016 at 10:51 am
You guys wanna place bets this year is the year. the best we will ever be while still rated so low. Because this is the year everyone realizes we are not to be underestimated.
Bet on those underdog games
June 6th, 2016 at 11:04 am
Considering most line-makers give the home team a 3 point bump, not a ton of respect coming our way. Look forward to proving them wrong!
June 6th, 2016 at 11:07 am
We are ” perennial ” bottom feeders, every offseason we improve our roster with free agents and draft picks, but it all has ended up with the same results. Every other season we bring in a new head coach and staff, and it has been the same result. You don’t improve on PAPER, you actually has to go out and perform on the football field. I’m sick and tired of the ” individual accolades” that some players receives, we stink as a team and that means that every member of this team is rolling in stench. No one is going to respect you until you go out and punch someone lights out, until then you will always be disrespected.
June 6th, 2016 at 11:12 am
I can explain. ESPN hates Jameis. We’ll never be favored in the majority of our games until we win the Super Bowl.
June 6th, 2016 at 11:20 am
We should be used to this guys. Even in the Dungy era we didn’t garner much respect. Add to that we’ve stunk for a decade and there you have it.
I say let ’em underestimate us. Those victories will be oh so much sweeter!
June 6th, 2016 at 11:27 am
Just how I want it. Fantastic revelation, we’ll surprise a lot of people this season. Our talent level is equal to any other team in the league top to bottom. Jamies is the key ingredient,getting that first year walk thru of the league out the way was crucial. The leap we are about to witness him take in year two. Woah.
June 6th, 2016 at 11:43 am
What exactly have we done in the last 7 years or so to deserve to be favored? Until the product on the field improves, we are what our record says we are – a bad football team. Now I have tons of faith that we will prove people wrong this season, there is no reason to expect anyone outside of us to believe that. And that’s just fine with me.
June 6th, 2016 at 12:03 pm
Let’s be honest, even after our super bowl win we didn’t really get any respect. Until we are a competitive team year in and out over the course of multiple years, we will continue to be one of the NFL rag dolls.
Truth be told I’d rather be flying under the radar and surprise people. Make em eat crow. Go Bucs!
June 6th, 2016 at 12:08 pm
That’s right. We have been bottom feeders forever. Until we prove otherwise
June 6th, 2016 at 12:34 pm
The don’t know jack sh!t anyway. Blind melon chitlin.
June 6th, 2016 at 12:49 pm
Lakeland
AMEN & a hallelujah brother. Preach!
June 6th, 2016 at 1:00 pm
I’m tempering expectations for our win total this season. Our strength of schedule is jumping significantly this year (playing the AFC and NFC West) and a new coaching regime is bound to come with an adjustment period. The long-term outlook is strong, and we’ll turn some heads, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we finished right around where we did last year in terms of actual W’s.
June 6th, 2016 at 1:16 pm
I will bet this Bucs team gets more than 6 wins, even if by only one.
June 6th, 2016 at 1:17 pm
ESPN expresses more PC butthurt over Winston…
“We’ll get ’em! We’ll make pre-pre-season predictions based on nothing to show the Bucs made a bad decision with a bad man.”
LOL…
Seriously, pre-pre-season betting lines that are supposed to mean something? Hilarious!
June 6th, 2016 at 1:23 pm
This is accurate. I would say we have a chance to sweep the Falcons and Saints though. Ari, Sea, Den, KC, Car will all be tough games. Somehow though we always lose to the Rams. Possible to be Chargers and Raiders. We can beat the Bears, but will have to see.
So looking at maybe 7 wins this season.
June 6th, 2016 at 1:38 pm
Bucs will go 12-4 in the regular season, then we will win every playoff game and then the Superbowl.
Yes, this season. And yes, I’m placing bets.
June 6th, 2016 at 1:49 pm
These people in a deep sleep E. They’ll come out of their criostacies after we acomplish just that.
June 6th, 2016 at 2:19 pm
I don’t know about the JW bias. They just don’t like us since….ever. Look at the NHL Playoffs and the Lightning. It was almost like they were giddy to have Pittsburgh. This is how “small-market” teams are treated. We don’t make them money or drive ratings.
What about the “Bert Emmanuel Rule”? They were not going to have a team playing in its home stadium for the SB plain and simple, especially the Bucs. Man, we’ve never been respected. They blamed the Raider’s loss on their center going AWOL for pete sake!
16-dash-0! I’m calling it!
June 6th, 2016 at 2:25 pm
Here is the over/under numbers for the Bucs in recent years:
2012: 6 (Won 7)
2013: 7.5 (Won 4)
2014: 7 (Won 2)
2015: 6 (Won 6)
2016: 7.5
Sorry to break it to you guys but Vegas is usually accurate when it comes to the Bucs. They’re probably going to go under. Some of you guys think the Bucs are going to find it within themselves somehow and “surprise” people. It’s the same nonsense every year.
June 6th, 2016 at 3:27 pm
The odds for us at New Orleans were some of the worst ever all year and we won that game. Everyone had that as a lock.
Most spreads are only 1-3 points anyway. It’s not like we’re 10+ point underdogs in every game
June 6th, 2016 at 3:33 pm
Joe, you hit on it at the end of this piece. The Bucs aren’t favored much because they offer almost no home field. There are bad teams like the Cards 3 yrs ago, seahawks (pre wilson) and the Jets in the past that go like 4-12 but are favorites at home bc the provide a hostile environment. Unfortunately, we do not anymore
June 6th, 2016 at 3:48 pm
The only home field advantage was taken away by no 1pm kickoffs until late Oct.
June 6th, 2016 at 4:53 pm
Its been easy for vegas to be right about us and other team without a QB. What will be funny is how after next season we go from no expectations from them to highly regarded every season as result of elite QB play.
June 6th, 2016 at 4:55 pm
Its easy to predict a team won’t be s@$! If they lack a QB. Hell I could point out hand full right now.
June 6th, 2016 at 5:58 pm
Some you rosy outlook guys sound phony. This team hasn’t won a playoff game in like 12 years. They still have obvious holes at wr and s plus plenty of questions. I’d be happy with 8 wins. Look at these other teams rosters before you sign us up for 10 wins. I see more than 4 wins but not much more 6-7?
June 6th, 2016 at 6:34 pm
Called being op·ti·mis·tic
ˌäptəˈmistik/
adjective
hopeful and confident about the future.
“the optimistic mood of the sixties”
Not all fans are phony but see the changes that will brings us out of the basement.
June 6th, 2016 at 6:44 pm
Brent see the 99 Rams, there’s always an example of something being possible before you go running your pie-hole.
June 6th, 2016 at 6:49 pm
And if that’s too much work for you I’ll spair you the labor. They went from last in the division to superbowl winners the next season. Dude.
June 6th, 2016 at 7:39 pm
I remember Rams. I like the positive attitude but when if the Bucs end up with 6 wins this year I don’t wanna hear a bunch of fans dreaming out and threatening not to attend games etc. our roster is still a work in progress imho. I agree were improving.
June 6th, 2016 at 7:40 pm
Freaking out not dreaming out. My bad.
June 6th, 2016 at 8:53 pm
The Bucs D will surprise everyone..Kwon and Lavonnte are coming….Watch the Devastation..these two will make nightmares for QBs ….
June 7th, 2016 at 4:08 pm
For some reason, they only include 15 games (16 weeks, 15 games), but
if you take the Cantor Tech point spread projections and convert it to the money line, you get a projected estimate of how many wins on average they expect for the Bucs. Using the midpoint of the lay/take odds from Sportability’s conversion:
At Falcons +3, 40% (to win)
At Cardinals +9 21%
Rams -1 51.25%
Broncos +2.5 44.05%
at Panthers +10 18.1%
at 49ers pk 50%
Raiders pk 50%
Falcons -1.5 51.81%
Bears -2 55.06%
at Chiefs +7 26.14%
Seahawks +5 32%
at Chargers +2 44.94%
Saints -3 60%
at Cowboys +6 30.53%
at Saints +2.5 44.05%
Win share (15 games) 6.19
If you add these up, you get an expected win share. Take the mean and multiply it by 16, you get only 6.60 expected wins over a full season. Now the Cantor Tech data gives you an estimated mean, while the win-total over-under (currently 7.5) is based on an estimated median, but this is still a huge divergence.
As a hard core spreadsheeter in real life, I take offense at some of Joe’s anti-spread sheet rhetoric, but this time the Joe’s are right. The people who came up with these estimates aren’t giving us any respect.
For being right, each Joe is granted a date with the Hooter’s calendar girl of his choice.
June 8th, 2016 at 12:29 am
As another fan wrote:The fourth season in a row the Bucs are pre-season champ. Given the difficulty of schedule, especially compared to last season, this is not unexpected.
I’m happy all 4 are home games.
Make lemonade don’t settle for the lemon.