The Long Ball
May 30th, 2016
Dangerous deep passer.
The one thing Joe loves about America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is his desire to gun the ball downfield.
There isn’t much of a dink-and-dunk, west-coast-offense mentality from Jameis.
Now a lot of fans believe Jameis, if he has any drawbacks, was poor throwing downfield last year. Naturally, it is a low-percentage throw. Connor Orr of NFL.com wonders if Jameis’ deep throws were a trait or a fad.
Will Winston keep taking shots downfield? An encouraging sign for a rookie quarterback is his ability to safely decide when to hurl the ball 20-plus yards. His completion percentage on long throws was fantastic and with no significant changes in the offense, Tampa Bay should enjoy more chunk plays. Should is the key word. The team is crossing its fingers that Winston does not take a step back.
Well, there’s that word again, “fantastic.” Joe doubts it’s accurate. Last night, Joe was digging and came up with a chart from the numberscrunchers at Pro Football Focus. They had Jameis ninth in the NFL in accuracy percentage for passes over 20 yards. Shockingly, they did not chart a dropped pass in any of Jameis’ attempts over 20 yards.
That last sentence spells out how subjective and all over the map the stat of dropped passes is. Joe doesn’t have the time nor inclination to go over every one of Jameis’ 25 deep ball attempts but no drops seems dubious given how K-Y fingers Mike Evans and misplaced Calgary Stampeder Donteaa Dye put the ball on the ground so often.
For a rookie, maybe Joe can swallow Orr’s description of “fantastic” for Jameis.
Joe doesn’t expect the Bucs’ offense to change much this year. Remember, Jameis’ coordinator last year is still calling the plays. And Todd Monken has said he’s not a dink-and-dunk kind of a guy.
So it’s a safe bet Jameis will continue to launch deep balls.
May 30th, 2016 at 8:14 am
I am about halfway through re-watching 2015 games. So far, JW is very inaccurate on long throws. In any event, forget what the rest of the world thinks, Koetter thinks he needs to improve.
May 30th, 2016 at 8:18 am
I think last year’s miscues down field were a result of not being in sync with his new arsenal of receivers. He really hasn’t built a chemistry with them and didn’t have there timing down. And that’s what it’s all about when it Comes to the long ball, timing. And last year it was obvious he and Evans were not on the same page. As Jameis grows with this offense and plays more and more with his arsenal and builds a bond, I think he will become better down field. Him and Evans have already been working on that as that is the most important combo. And it seems he has built a chemistry with Bell dating back to last year’s OTA’s so hopefully that will continue, Because I think Bell is our X factor this year.
May 30th, 2016 at 8:21 am
“Joe doesn’t expect the Bucs’ offense to change much this year.” Hadn’t really considered what this year’s offense will look like Joe, but for the most part I agree with you … it’ll be a lot of the same, only better hopefully. With the exception of adding Vitale, we’ve pretty much got the same pieces in place. Same coach calling plays. Same QB directing the attack. Bucs moved the ball well last year. Hopefully this year several folks step up their play and we do a better job of scoring.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:01 am
Familiarity will get Jameis and the receivers completions on the longer passes, those one play big gains that really get the fans energized.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:10 am
I hope to see more Martin AND Sims!
May 30th, 2016 at 9:23 am
And by 9th did u mean 5th? U can’t count guys who only threw a few deep balls and weren’t starters. No wonders the Joe’s hate analytics, they don’t know how to read them.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:27 am
We have a long history of average to poor QB play and all Bucnut2 can do in every post is put down the one real QB prospect we’ve had here in along time. How about saying some good things about the kid once in a while. Remember, he still hasn’t played a snap of season 2 yet. He has plenty of time to improve. How about we enjoy the ride, not just the destination.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:36 am
@ Joe
You can’t possibly frame an argument that Jameis is not top 5 in the NFL at the deep ball. In fact he is probably the best in the NFL statistically. When u actually read the list, it counts drops as completions, if they didn’t do that Jameis is first on that list. And what do they consider Dontee Dye running a wide open post 25+ yards downfield and having a ball bounce off his chest? Plus u can’t tell me that not one of Mike Evans 157 drops wasn’t at least 20 yards downfield.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:41 am
I think his footwork wasn’t great when trying to throw it really deep. His offseason conditioning should help with this. He needs to keep improving his footwork. Being in better shape should help him keep it up, especially as it gets later in games.
May 30th, 2016 at 9:41 am
@ Bucnut2
Man your film evaluations are spot on. What are you doing commenting on JBF.com when you should be out finding the next Dan Marino? Seriously though if u watch film and think that Jameis is inaccurate with the long ball then you really need to stop wasting your time evaluating players. It’s a moot point for u
May 30th, 2016 at 9:55 am
12/25 = 48%
That is a very respectable number for a rookie! That is sixth best for NfL starting qbs last season.
Lets compare his stats to the “other” rookie qb:
3/21 = 14%
Roflmao
May 30th, 2016 at 10:03 am
Is Connor Orr the only person writing Bucs related material anywhere other than JBF this time of year?
May 30th, 2016 at 10:12 am
Greg Rosenthall assigns the writers who aren’t at the home office on the west coast to cover the teams that the main writers don’t want to write about. Sadly, that’s us.
May 30th, 2016 at 10:44 am
The o is good if thed can play as good we might win some games the kicker lost us 2 games and the d lost 3 do the math
May 30th, 2016 at 11:07 am
#3 had a great year for a rookie! What’s amazing when you think about it is what could have been!!! As good as his stats and year appeared…with a little help from his friends and a break here or there #3 could have had an unforgettable rookie year!
It’s not just the drops! How many times did his receivers let him down by running incorrect routes? Routes that weren’t sharp? Not fighting for position with defenders?
How many times did the kicking game cost him another W. The defense? Obviously #3 should have at least two more wins with Washington and Chicago and there were several others that could have been added.
I’m really, really excited! #3 will only get better because that is what he does. Just like scorpions sting…#3 obsesses on getting better. What’s also exciting is that the young receivers should also be improving. It’s a great time to be a Buc fan!
Offense! The Bucs play offense? The Bucs are defense not offense. You mean we might actually see us trying to score points. Yeehaaa!
May 30th, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Think Joe was pretty clear in the article what he thought of the dropped statistic the PFF tribe used.
May 30th, 2016 at 12:46 pm
What Joe is hitting on is part of the reason Winstons completion percentage was under 60%. It’s hard to believe none of his 20+ yard passes were drops. I don’t know how many times we saw a receiver have the ball knocked away though they had both hands on it. To me that is still a drop.
The fact they allowed a rookie chuck the ball downfield on a regular basis bodes well for us dans to see more explosive pass plays. Plus a 2nd year for Koetter to know our players will also help the offense evolve. I think Jameis learned pretty well what he can and can’t get away with in the pros. He hits on a few more of those downfield sideline passes AND the receivers man up and fight for the ball then he’ll have even a better 2nd year.
May 30th, 2016 at 1:56 pm
Joe really should take a course statistics!
May 30th, 2016 at 2:20 pm
Fsuking and others. Pay the $50 and go watch the games. You don’t have to be Pat Kirwan to figure it out. Besides, why are you all jumping on me, Koetter said the same thing. Go look at his pressers.
May 30th, 2016 at 2:27 pm
Focus. They had Jameis ninth in the NFL in accuracy percentage for passes over 20 yards. Shockingly, they did not chart a dropped pass in any of Jameis’ attempts over 20 yards.
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Yeah, a lot of fans don’t realize that Jameis was good last year with the deep ball…..did profootball focus miss the Dye drop against the Saints??? I believe it was over 20 yards…on the money, and it was simply dropped…would of tied the game…who knows if we go on to win that one if we keep lovie…maybe it turned out to be a blessing?
May 30th, 2016 at 3:28 pm
one of Mike Evans 157 drops wasn’t at least 20 yards downfield.
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Ha! Funny but not funny at the same time. Lol
BtW Dye’s drop in NO was 19 yards.
Finally, I’ve noticed Jameis Right long ball is better than his Left long ball. Lmao, idk what that means but it sounded funny in my head.
May 30th, 2016 at 5:43 pm
Jameis showed in College that he is very very good at throwing and connecting on the long ball. One of the best QBs in a long time at that particular skill.
Last year was not up to par for Winston on his long throws. A decent % of those “misses” were on his receivers – but Jameis can and will absolutely improve and so will the receivers. I expect we will see plenty of big plays in 2016.
May 30th, 2016 at 5:48 pm
^^^ lol!
May 30th, 2016 at 6:03 pm
Nobody would jump on you if you commented on other threads outside of Jameis threads.
Simple as….no I don’t say those words ANYMORE!
May 30th, 2016 at 6:20 pm
Oh that would be our pal Bucnut ^^^^
May 30th, 2016 at 7:44 pm
“If he has any drawbacks, he was poor throwing downfield last year”
Joe, understand that there’s a difference between throwing downfield and deep balls, deep balls are long downfield shots attempting to take the top of defense (Ex. Post and Gos), Downfield passing is specific routes and concepts that stretch the field where Jameis uses his arm stength to fit balls into defensive windows, The type of throw on deep balls requires an arc and more touch to them and that’s what Jameis needs to work on. Jameis was by no means “poor” throwing downfield last year, that’s a strength of his game.
May 30th, 2016 at 7:45 pm
DB – BtW Dye’s drop in NO was 19 yards.
Finally, I’ve noticed Jameis Right long ball is better than his Left long ball. Lmao, idk what that means but it sounded funny in my head.
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Thanks, DB…I guess that is technically correct with the ball being spotted at the Buccs 44 and the incompletion at the 37. Ball was in the air over 20 yards, however……but unofficially as you as say.
May 30th, 2016 at 8:16 pm
evans had a total of 11 drops last season… 6 were in one game against the Giants… the Bucs have one of the best young WRs in the NFL and people still complaining
May 30th, 2016 at 8:29 pm
Jameis was by no means “poor” throwing downfield last year, that’s a strength of his game.
Where exactly did Joe say Jameis was “poor?”
Here is the full sentence you are butchering: