Refreshing Honesty From Nerds
May 14th, 2016
Regular readers know Joe is not much of a stats guy. Oh, stats can enlighten, but Joe is hardly a slave to stats.
Football, like most athletics, cannot be predicted by numbers alone. Numbers do not account for physical traits or techniques, or bodies not being 100 percent, or footwork or handwork or any physical technique. Stats account for neither hangovers nor for women being in an athlete’s head. Statistics do not account for domestic issues.
Numbers provide insight,but despite what the purveyors of the Cult of Statistics push, they are not the final word. As Joe learned way back in high school, folks can (and will) twist stats to reinforce any narrative being peddled.
Joe tries to keep an open mind about the stat nerds, but when, for example, the PFF tribe gave Aaron Rodgers a below average grade for completing 24-of-35 passes for five touchdowns and no picks in a 38-28 win over Kansas City on Monday Night Football, well, anyone with a lick of common sense knows suggesting that’s a bad game is shoveling a fresh pile of BS.
It was patently absurd.
But no! The PFF tribe pushed the notion Rodgers was below average. Then it went to hysterical defenses of their beloved grades on Twitter, further digging their grave. That is when Joe lost any and all faith in those clowns. If one’s formula — or that putrid word “metric” — is flawed enough to call Rodgers’ aforementioned game below average, then one’s formula needs to be adjusted, not defended.
This is why Joe prefers the Football Outsiders crowd. Oh, they too are awash in statistics, but at least when common sense suggests their formulas may not be perfect, they man up and say so.
Take good guy Aaron Schatz. Typing a piece for BSPN, he projected 2016 data and he doesn’t find the Bucs improving this fall, like his colleague Mike Clay earlier in the week.
But then Schatz used reason to wonder aloud if his formula might need tweaking in the case of the Bucs.
Our projections see Tampa Bay as declining a little bit on offense and improving a bit on defense, but there are subjective reasons to question both of those results. The system is expecting regression from the offense, but of course the quarterback situation is much different now than it was two years ago. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay projects to improve because it has brought in more defensive approximate value over replacement than any other team in the NFL. However, the system may be overestimating the value of these veterans. Daryl Smith will be 34 this year, Brent Grimes 33, and Robert Ayers 31.
You see, Joe respects this. Schatz ran his numbers and then questioned the validity of his projections. He doesn’t parrot what the spreadsheet says and then blindly defends the numbers as Gospel.
Joe appreciates this breath of fresh air.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:13 am
“the system may be overestimating the value of these veterans. Daryl Smith will be 34 this year, Brent Grimes 33, and Robert Ayers 31.”
Exactly what I have said all along.
I think Grimes will play well enough…but injury will become an issue.
Smith is a solid tackler…but I expect his luck with injuries to run out at some point…and with the Bucs luck? It will be this year.
Robert Ayers is a joke.
Jason Licht could have pursued younger talent with more upside, but he didn’t…outside of our new guard, who is really new to the position.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:14 am
I predict the defense will improve…but NOT because of the veteran free agent additions.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:18 am
Projections based on stats are the only sensible way to project…..but, they are always subject to unknowns…..and perhaps the greatest of them are things like injuries or QB play. I think the Bucs success or failure will ride greatly on these two.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:22 am
@BuccaneerBonzai
Why is “Robert Ayers is a joke” ?
May 14th, 2016 at 8:31 am
`
May 14th, 2016 at 8:39 am
@Bucwyled
Bonzai is under the false illusion that NFL GM Licht is to blame with most of the things that went wrong for the Incompetent one!! So if all the free-agents do not work out it will bolster his delusions!!!
May 14th, 2016 at 8:39 am
I think the difficult thing to project isn’t the new players as much as the new Defensive scheme. We have no idea what to expect from last year’s players in this new defense. Will Gholston could be a breakout player, one of our linebakers could finish with double digit sacks, one of our safeties could finally catch a ball and maybe we get a half dozen picks.
On offense the real question is we see if Koetters hands were tied last year. Maybe this offense becomes more aggressive and puts up huge numbers.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:46 am
`the very nature of injuries is unpredictable.They target young players like Charles Sims,gerald McCoy as well as older players.There is no blue print on predicting fate.
As for Robert Ayers,i think he should get a chance to play before before any
opinion is formed.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:48 am
I know it’s hokey and old school, but I still believe in the value of TEAM. I’m watching the Lightning in amazement and seeing them fight through bad break after bad break. The Bolts have a lot of great players…quality pieces that go into making up a good team, but they are not the only organization with talent. Something about how the Lightning have gelled as a team is just different.
I think #3 is ready to lead the Bucs into that same promised land. I like the makeup of the locker room, the character, the coaching staff…it’s just “feels” as if the Bucs are actually becoming a TEAM…something we haven’t seen since the glory days.
May 14th, 2016 at 9:02 am
@st pete buc
agree, something interesting on another site is that Koetter has assigned a
game management coach for timouts and two minute drills. A concept dating
back to his years at Jacksonville.This is an area that needs improvement.
May 14th, 2016 at 9:12 am
@Bob in Valrico
Just firing Coach my scheme improves in that area!!! The Incompetent one has always been horrible through out his career in that area!!! But I do like Coach Koetter’s decision to have another set of eyes as he keeps his play calling duties!!! And do not be suprised to Coach Smitty to lend his head coaching expertise to the mix as well during game day!!!
Great Coach equals an exciting year for Tampa Bay
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!
May 14th, 2016 at 9:13 am
whether this team is well coached or not may be just as important as Wins ands losses,in evaluating Koetter’s success.
He seems to be addressing areas of deficiency and I think that’s a good thing.
May 14th, 2016 at 9:19 am
Defensive scheming alone wold have been the difference in 3 or 4 games last year.
Offensively, they were nuts not to add more fire power, better pray for no injuries on that side of the ball.
May 14th, 2016 at 9:24 am
If we are successful next year and other teams come calling For Coach Smith
It would be smart to offer him Assistant head coach and move Hayes up to DC. I think it would be smart to pay for success rather than sidelined coaches.
I am guessing that Smitty is already there for Koetter in that capacity now.
May 14th, 2016 at 9:51 am
So, the stupid algorithm says we’re not gonna improve much overall, but common sense took over and he realized that even a blind man can see that the Bucs are absolutely STACKED on both sides of the ball and we have great coaching and schemes now.
Bucs Superbowl Champions in 2016
May 14th, 2016 at 10:01 am
Bob in Valrico,
I agree 100%.
That needs to be the plan.
If we do that, I believe we will win 4-5 Superbowls in the next decade and be the newest dynasty.
May 14th, 2016 at 10:16 am
The Lightning are excelling from the general manager down. Cooper has won at every level. The Blues look like the team to win it all.
May 14th, 2016 at 10:47 am
Bonzi says “Robert Ayers is a joke?”
Robert Ayers production over the past two years speaks for itself. Last year, despite playing in only 12 games, he managed to produce 41 tackles, 9.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and four passes defended. In his last two years with the Giants, Ayers has racked up 94 pressures (15 sacks, 25 hits, and 54 hurries) on just 602 pass rushes. Ayers has been one of the most productive 4-3 DE in the league, on a per snap basis, over the past two years. His experience and knowledge is going to help his new teammates this year. To say he is a joke is pathetic.
The reason this team is going to improve this year is because of our new additions on defense and new coaching. Our cornerback group was our biggest issue. 70.8% completion rate. I don’t care how old Brent Grimes is. Even at his age he is better than anyone we put on the field last year. Grimes , Josh Robinson and the best CB in the draft Vernon Hargreaves are going to be a difficult group to pass on. Not to mention Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks. Our pass rush was not as bad as people make it out to be last year (38 sacks). Add Robert Ayers and Noah Spence combined with the best defensive line coach in the NFL Jay Hayes. Our defense will be much improved and can you imagine how well the offense will perform if everyone catches the ball, they reduce penalties and Jameis is just 5% more accurate?
May 14th, 2016 at 12:22 pm
Did they run JW’s will to win through their little system?
May 14th, 2016 at 12:23 pm
Some Bucs fans have no confidence in Ayers because he’s not a sack specialist, I don’t expect him to be that but I do expect him to be a very solid player for the Bucs who will also be a threat inside. He’s a proven veteran (unlike MJ) who’s produced for every team he’s been with. I expect 6-8 sacks from Ayers but he should be our most consistent DE. I’m more worried about an undersized Noah Spence not being able to get off blocks. Yes, he’s quick twitched but who knows how he’ll translate.
May 14th, 2016 at 12:27 pm
@Erik,
I love the optimism, but I’m not sure you can say the Bucs are “stacked” on either side of the ball. I do like the direction they’re headed and the roster is way better than it was 2 years ago. I think a wild card spot would be a great step forward for this team.
May 14th, 2016 at 12:28 pm
I guess the projections are accounting for a harder schedule per the regression?!….but keep in mind the offense was near the bottom in scoring, yet top ten/five in yards. The scoring should improve because a) familiarity in the offense b) healthier team (VJax, Bell, Evans, ASJ, Murphy, etc. all missed time last year) b) Jameis’ progression c) less conservative….running the ball less, actually taking more shots downfield. d) and perhaps most importantly…better field position as a result of stronger defense and special teams (kicker).
The defense is due for more turnovers….and our pass defense should be (much) improved allowing for more three and outs and time of possession in our favor with shorter field.
Go Buccs!
May 14th, 2016 at 12:32 pm
I’m more worried about an undersized Noah Spence not being able to get off blocks. Yes, he’s quick twitched but who knows how he’ll translate.
———————————————-
His size actually helps him “get low” and under/around lineman easier….think Von Bell.
May 14th, 2016 at 12:42 pm
Daryl Smith will be 34 this year, Brent Grimes 33, and Robert Ayers 31.
If the injury bug does indeed bite, I would venture to guess we will not be royally screwed. These individuals were brought in not as front-line starters, but as rotational depth.
May 14th, 2016 at 12:54 pm
@feelthepewter
I can agree with that in the same sense that Vh3’s size helps him get in and out of his breaks, Brandon Browners 6’4 part of the reason he’s just a zone corner. With Spence I’m just not convinced he ends the Simeon Rice drought.
May 14th, 2016 at 1:00 pm
Stats were never meant to predict the future. That’s when they move outside the real of use where they were intended. Stats give SOME IDEA of the future based on all the past outcomes of roughly the same scenario.
Even when the stats are 80% correct in their predictions they’re still full of random variables that may or may not repeat their past behavior.
Also the predictive power of programs will be up and down over time, never constant, which again is a function of the underlying system they’re trying to model.
May 14th, 2016 at 1:05 pm
Lol, you can never model the Bucs because their immediate past has no continuity. The events effecting the Bucs are what you call delta functions, big mathematical spikes, hard to model any prediction based on spikes (e.g. coaching changes, MRSA, billboards, lol the Bucs are one chaotic system).
May 14th, 2016 at 1:05 pm
Ayers is a joke?????
He has gotten better and better since joining the league.
He is leaking late without a lot of miles on him.
He has a great work ethic and is know as a great teammate.
Your comment is ignorant. So many look at sack numbers and where someone was drafted and expect unrealistic things.
If him and Spence and McCoy and Smith all get 8+sacks plus apply pressure …. They will have a fantastic year. That is a very realistic projection.
May 14th, 2016 at 3:03 pm
Thank you Howard.
May 14th, 2016 at 4:33 pm
From a stat standpoint I see no way Mike Smith improves on Lovies top 10 defense. Mike’s defenses in Atlanta were at best soft – but yeah I know just because he was the head coach in Atlanta and before that the DC in Jacksonville, he had nothing to do with running the defense with the Falcons right? I expect from a stat standpoint a pretty large decline, but perhaps with more stiffness when needed since the defense will be more aggressive. Of course that also means you’re going to have failures at key times as well. I hope for the best but I don’t see Mike Smith from a stat standpoint doing much.
May 14th, 2016 at 7:46 pm
Pro Football Focus -0.8 grade for Aaron Rodgers on a night he threw for five touchdowns? Three of Rodgers’s five TDs passes were judged to be the result of exceptional play by Randall Cobb instead of by Rodgers. They were expected throws with the credit going to Cobb for fighting through contact or defeating the coverage. That makes these zero-graded throws. They have a massive effect on Rodgers’ statistical performance but do not increase his grade. Why should Rogers get special credit for completing several easy, wide open short passes? Just like a pass that is squeezed through tight coverage and then dropped by the receiver is graded positively for the QB. Rodgers earned two negative plays with a fumble lost (but it was nullified by a Chiefs penalty) and a dropped interception that, in PFF’s judgment, possibly should have been a pick six. PFF give’s every single play a grade from 0 to 2, either on the negative or the positive side, and then they sum up everything and reach the final grade. Thus Rodgers negative grade. PFF grades are some of the best info available out there. Where else can you get information on every player in the NFL based on a system in which someone reviews every play? Tell me who else and I will be happy to try them out? PFF is also the only site were you can get advanced statistical fact based information such as sacks, QB hits and QB hurries broken down by individual players.
May 14th, 2016 at 8:14 pm
LOL Tell this to someone who works in an NFL front office and watch the laughter explode.
Even Belicheat tore those guys a new a-hole about their beloved “Grades.”
May 14th, 2016 at 9:14 pm
@rod munch
top ten on paper only
our defense gave up 5.2 yards per play.100 yards rushing and 240 yards passing per game.Those kind of numbers should get you fired.So if you give up 100 yards a game a rushing and 70% completion average you have a recipe for losses.
May 15th, 2016 at 12:56 pm
Regarding PFF, most people don’t appear to understand what the grades really are. They no doubt have their flaws as everything does, which are magnified when people don’t understand what those flaws are. The grades are a measure of execution, and more specifically, how well a player does what he is observed to do (which is not necessarily what he should have, or could have done). This is a very important aspect to understand, which is at the core of much criticism.
Applying this understanding to the Rodgers game in conjunction with the superb traditional stat line and grading of his teammates you can conclude he played a very smart game. Made sound in game decisions, smart throws, good audibles, and/or had a great gameplan from the coaching staff (or the opponent performed poorly in these regards). These are things that PFF can not capture. These are things that nobody, except people with intimate knowledge of the Packers gameplan can speak to. The grading needs to be understood within the context of it’s limitations. The grades are a tool to be used to help formulate a conclusion, they are not the conclusion itself. Most people want the conclusion and assume that’s what the grades are (ie Rodgers had a below average week), which is simply not accurate.