Patience Mandatory
April 25th, 2016
Top-10-pick DEs struggle
Special edge-rush talents like Julius Peppers rarely emerge, especially as rookies. And that’s why nearly every team wants one and teams pour money down the drain playing DE lotto every March.
Heck, even Packers Yoda GM Ted Thompson, who loathes free agency, invested in Peppers in 2014.
That was the same year the Bucs were fishing and the braintrust handed Michael “Ghost” Johnson more than $20 million of Team Glazer loot guaranteed. Even Johnson’s agent later admitted his client was a second-rate pass rusher before taking the Bucs’ cash, and that Johnson didn’t want to be in Tampa.
So here the Bucs sit on the cusp of drafting their defensive end of the future in three or four short days.
For a DE, Joe absolutely preaches patience, something Joe hates doing to legions of Bucs fans who have suffered too long. But DE is just not like other positions.
In December, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted one-third of pass rushers drafted with a top-10 pick in the past 10 years had five sacks or more as a rookie.
Think about that. That’s a lot of dudes coming in with high hopes and needing significant time to produce. Of course, there are plenty of busts in the mix from that 10-year sample.
That was a focus in Atlanta because rookie Vic Beasley, the 2015 No. 8 overall pick out of Clemson, the alleged savior of the Falcons’ pass rush, had just two sacks at the time. He finished last season with four sacks.
A volatile top of this year’s first round, along with escalating credible chatter, could lead to manbeast defensive end Joey Bosa or DeForest Buckner falling to the Bucs at No. 9.
Of course, it would be a stunner if the Bucs passed on either of those guys, given their need for elite talent at the position. But if it is Bosa or Buckner, then Joe won’t expect much in Year 1. The numbers strongly advise against it.
That doesn’t mean the guy will be a bust. It took the last great Bucs defensive end years to develop. That was Michael Bennett, who was allowed to walk for no good reason.
There are just so few instant studs at the position. Simeon Rice and Peppers were among them with a dozen sacks each as rookies. But that’s way out of the norm for top DE talent.
April 25th, 2016 at 10:44 am
The guy who constantly gets comp’d to Bennett is UF’s own Jonathan Bullard. One of most dominant, least reported on guys in the draft. Could def see the Bucs going after him round 2.
April 25th, 2016 at 10:46 am
The reason that Bennett was allowed to walk was because he was in the way of dominik’s very high draft picks!!!! and then dominik blamed the medical staff years later!!!!
April 25th, 2016 at 10:46 am
This is why I predict Jack Smith will have more sacks than the rookie no matter who he is…or perhaps who they are if we take more than one.
Smith has exactly the same physique as Von Miller. I’m not suggesting they are equal talents…just comparable physiques and skill sets. 6’3″-6’4″ 255-260lb players are now prototypical for great edge rushers. I’m thinking if Jack Smith is healthy this year he gets ten.
If you take his two year record with the Bucs he’s actually produced very well. Simply multiply his sacks per game X 16 and he would have had double digits both years with us. Obviously like ASJ he needs to stay healthy.
Perhaps year three with the Bucs will be the charm for both Smith and ASJ.
April 25th, 2016 at 10:46 am
Been screaming this for months!!!
Don’t expect a rookie DE to come in and be the savior for this defense. History says it’s not gonna happen.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:07 am
I know a ROOKIE DE who went UNDRAFTED last year and had 5 sacks, couple of FF and a TD on vary vary limited reps. He hails from the almighty football factory of Shepard University.
No need to waste a first rnd pick on a DE (not the way Licht eval players) lets go WR and give the savior some weapons.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:27 am
I’ve stated on more than one occasion when we draft Ogbah come back and see me mid-way thru year two and focus in the beginning of year three. Gose without saying whom ever they draft at DE will require some NFL development.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:31 am
Nope..Ain’t buying the patience thing on DE or the Bucs..period. Been patient long enough. Every year its the new..Spinmaster stepping forward with the hype. This yrs headmaster features..Barnum/Bailey’s Koetter Circus. Complete with new coaches and clowns to hype us up, I’ll repeat my..Cautiously optimistic theme here. Win games. Get us to the playoffs and beyond. Anything less is uncivilized..below par and reason to give koetter his bait and tackle fly reel box along side Schiano and Lovie. Batter up Coach Koetter. And good luck. You’re gonna need every ounce of it!
April 25th, 2016 at 11:36 am
Lol mike Johnson hates facts and reality
April 25th, 2016 at 11:42 am
Lord
Mike and BigHog are still mourning the demise of Lovie. That’s OK. A little grieving is fine. I believe them both to be Buc fans and once we kick off they’ll be back on board.
The only time we’ll hear about Lovie once the season starts is if he somehow runs a long win streak at Illinois. Doubtful that’ll happen no matter who is coaching the Illini.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:54 am
I dont think that there is anyway Bosa falls to 9. I would love to grab Shaq Lawson at that spot if hes available. Dude is a wrecking ball on the D line.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:54 am
This is why I’m against using the 9 pick on a de. Top pick DEs need the same amount of grooming as 2nd and 3rd rounders. Use #9 on Coleman and get instant return and more points per game and develop mid round DE/DTs, or Koetter and Smith might not be here long enough to see the defense come together.
Clown on me all you want about wanting to draft Corey Coleman in the 1st round, 7+ more points per game probably puts us in the playoffs with a competent D coordinator at the helm.
April 25th, 2016 at 11:55 am
And that is why I have been trying to tell Joe and all of his minions that the bucs may not view the DE’s like you or some teams do. There are no Von Millers, Mario Williams, JJ Watts in this draft. None of the DE’s have truly separated themselves as a bonafide elite talent. Whenever you have 5-6 players that play the same position that could possibly go in the same spot in the draft, then that means there is no separation from a talent stand point. That is why you pick the best player available whether that is CB, DT, WR, OL etc. Picking a DE at 9 that may never become any good let alone elite is just a stupid move especially when you can draft the same type of player in the second round. You build a great team by picking great talent and not by picking for need just for the sake of picking a DE. Pick great talent and you can mask your “needs.
April 25th, 2016 at 12:45 pm
Mike are going on a Superbowl run next season??? Probably not,it’s steps to this spit. By the time my guy matures in the league we’ll be ready because it will co-insdde wit the
April 25th, 2016 at 1:18 pm
Holy spit a Dozen SaCks!!!! As a rookie Simeon Rice hot damn what does that even look like 🙂
April 25th, 2016 at 1:30 pm
@bucsfaninchina…I agree…he would be a great pick in the second round…very versatile, can play de or 3tech…if we could grab bosa at #9, then bullard in the second that would be great….GO BUCS!!!
April 25th, 2016 at 1:55 pm
We got to pay our dues just like everyone else. One can say they are tired of being patient,my question to those type are what other choice do you have but to be patient. 2013,14 and 15 will makeup the core grouping that wins us our second chip in a few years or so. Right now they ALL ARE DEVELOPING.
April 25th, 2016 at 5:28 pm
Interesting how many “Starters” dontohntjinknwe are going to walk away with in this draft.. Barring injury of course. A DE #1 probably won’t start.. A CB won’t… We have a better shot drafting a rookie Safety who will start and a rookie linebacker for the Strong Side… A LG or RT may start if drafted.. Name another positiion?