Loading Up At Defensive End
April 20th, 2016
Would App State DE Ronaled Blair be worth a gamble on the third day of the draft?
Look, Joe isn’t all that fond of the PFF tribe. Pretty sure that is fairly clear to regular readers.
But Joe does try to keep an open mind about them. No, really. Problem is, the more nonsense they manufacture, the less of an open Joe is. But today, Joe has found something agreeable, though Joe’s pretty sure a kindergarten son of one of Joe’s readers could reach the same conclusion:
The Bucs need a pass rusher.
Yes, you can hit the pause button on the Amber Alert. The Bucs really do need a pass rusher. Numberscruncher Gordon McGuinness tosses out a couple of names Bucs fans should keep an eye out for next weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge defender
Day 1 option: Shaq Lawson, Clemson
Lawson was the third-highest-graded edge rusher in this draft class, impressing both against the run and as a pass-rusher. With 13 sacks, 12 hits, and 25 hurries, he would help the Buccaneers get after quarterbacks in the NFC South.
Day 3 option: Ronald Blair, Appalachian State
Blair played 3-4 defensive end in college, but impressed as a pass-rusher. He registered eight sacks, six hits, and 23 hurries in 2015.
True, Joe has been eyeing the way the Bucs may get (at worst) the third-best defensive end or cornerback on the board at No. 9. But the way the draft is shaking out, with the Rams trading the top pick to draft a quarterback, and the Eagles rumored to trade for the second pick for the same reason, the Bucs could very well get the second-best defensive end or cornerback on the board at No. 9.
As for Blair, hey, if you are going to draft a project and try to turn a 34 defensive end (which in a 43 defense is normally a tackle) into a pass rusher in a four-man front, you may as well roll the dice on Day Three of the draft.
It would not shock Joe whatsoever if the Bucs draft two edge rushers next weekend. In fact, they should.
April 20th, 2016 at 5:18 am
The suspense is killing me
April 20th, 2016 at 5:58 am
Carl nassib seems to be a legitimate target too. Guy plays all out every play.
April 20th, 2016 at 6:12 am
I trust Jason licht and Dirk Koetter will buid a monster in the nfc south and make the right decisions
April 20th, 2016 at 6:17 am
How about 1 edge rusher and 1 DT instead of 2 edge rushers Joe.
April 20th, 2016 at 6:33 am
Hmmmm. That makes sense. Nab Rankin at 9 before Saints do at 12. Then either in rd 2 or 3 get your pass rusher!
April 20th, 2016 at 7:21 am
I said the same thing the other day on here Pat. Since there are only a couple elite DT prospects yet several great looking DE’s, why not go Rankins/DE 1-2?
April 20th, 2016 at 8:10 am
Kevin
I do too. Been a while since i believed in the gm. Its a great feeling. Its still fun researching and “mocking” which players the bucs should pick tho.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:12 am
I’ve been on the Rankins train for a month now, I think he’s our best option unless one of the top 5 prospects fall to us.
As for Ronald Blair, I wouldn’t mind grabbing him in the fourth rnd, I think that’s where he’s slated, Altho he might go in the 3rd, but i think the Bucs can find better value there.
I’m a big Appalachian state fan, I use to live up in Boone NC and played a few times with sum friends on the football field. Beatiful place to live (maybe not during winter tho).
April 20th, 2016 at 8:15 am
As much as I want to see us draft defensive line with the first 2 picks, I can’t help but think what Winston could do if we took 2 WR. Our offense could be unstoppable!!! One can dream, can’t he?!
April 20th, 2016 at 8:15 am
What round do u think he will go in Joe? The 3rd? And what do u think of him as a 4-3 DE?
April 20th, 2016 at 8:18 am
Shaq Lawson is a future bust. Kevin Dodd will be the good DE to draft from Clemson.
That said, if the Browns wanted Wentz and the Rams take him, they may decide to take another player at 2 overall that is not a QB…then trade their 2nd for Glennon.
This would give us the 1st and 8th pick in the second round.
Imagine.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:20 am
I’m not against taking an offensive tackle in the first round.
Our RT position is aging…and really not that good…or healthy.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:21 am
Scenario 1
Bucs trade Mike Glennon and the 9th overall for the 2nd overall from the Browns. Browns get their QB and still pick at 9. We get the best DE in the draft.
Scenario 2
Bucs trade Mike Glennon and the 9th overall to the Cowboys for the 4th overall and a 3rd rounder. Use our extra 3rd rounder and a late pick to trade back into the second round, getting 2 2nd round picks for the second year in a row. Cowboys get a QB and Bucs get the player they want.
Scenario 3
Bucs trade Mike Glennon and the 39th overall to the Jets for their 20th overall. Jets get a good QB, Bucs end up getting two first rounders…probably spent on both lines or DL and CB or S.
Scenario 4
Bucs trade Mike Glennon and the 148th (5th Rd, 9th Pk) to the Broncos for their 32nd overall to jump ahead of the seven teams in the 2nd round. (this is one I think could be in place already). Broncos solve their QB needs and still have a 2nd rounder, Bucs also still have a 2nd rounder and get a 2nd first rounder (the last one, which is really like the first pick of the 2nd round).
Scenario 5
Bucs trade Mike Glennon for a 2nd round pick, straight up. In this scenario, it could be to any of the QB needy teams that did not get their guy in the first. We’ll have a warning sign that this is a possible deal when those teams pick in the first round. For example…if at 2 overall, the Browns do NOT pick a QB, then they probably will deal their 2nd for Glennon. This would give the Bucs the first pick of the second round (plus their 8th pick of that round). This would be the deal I like most, since we lose none of our picks).
Scenario 6
The Titans have 3 2nd rounders, but need no QB. Glennon would not make a good backup there, because they are building for a mobile QB. But I DO see the Titans using those picks to trade back into the first round. This will probably cause teams to change some intended picks…say, for example, at 20 overall, the Jets do the unpredictable (which they seem to do every year) and trade it for two 2nd rounders to the Titans. Titans take whoever, but this forces the Jets to take a QB in the second round OR trade a second for Glennon. This gives the Bucs another 2nd rounder…probably the 12th 2nd rounder.
Scenario 7
Bucs make no trades for 1st or 2nd round picks. Glennon is traded later for a 3rd and a 6th.
Scenario 8
Bucs do not trade Glennon at all, and sit pat on Glennon, hoping for a trade offer later, or resigning him at $3 mill per for 2-3 years.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:27 am
Take who ever the so-called #1 ranked DE is and put his collegiate and combine numbers up against my guy mr.lazy himself Emanuel Ogbah. Then come back and holla at me.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:29 am
Lets see if any of your Scenarios hit the Jackpot. Cant wait to see!
April 20th, 2016 at 8:43 am
I’m well aware of the 1 off field incident but after watching more film I’m starting to lean towards rolling the dice on Nkemdiche in the 1st if Bosa is off the board. Rankins isn’t a terrible 2nd option but nothing really jumped out at me while watching his games. I think he’ll be a solid pro but I don’t see an Aaron Donald ceiling for him. Nkemdiche didn’t always record a tackle or get a sack but I thought he was very disruptive on most plays. I’m not an expert but just going by what I’ve observed. Either way I trust Licht and the scouting teams evaluation of the players and we’ll see next week.
April 20th, 2016 at 8:51 am
I didn’t see any elite level edge rushers in this draft. Even the top edge rusher this year would probably be the 4th edge rusher off the board if he came out last year that’s not a guy that will stick around on the roster years down the road.
April 20th, 2016 at 9:02 am
@Waterboy —
That is an excellent comment. Best analysis I’ve seen in a while.
So what positions and players DO show value as compared with average draft classes?
@Noles —
I’m impressed by Ogbah, too. But then I follow Steve White. 😄
April 20th, 2016 at 9:17 am
BTW a big wild card in all this is Mike Smith and crew. Last year we knew what qualities Lovie looked for in a DE and for the d-line in general. This year we just don’t know. Are we going after anchor size? Initial edge step? Motor?
We will learn a lot about the line and the team from this draft — or at least about how management sees things.
April 20th, 2016 at 9:32 am
Bucs should not draft a DE at 9 unless Bosa falls into their laps.
Trade back and draft one later in the 1st round? Absolutely. After the 1st pick, trade up into the bottom of the 1st round and draft one? Sure.
But do not draft Lawson or Dodd or Ogbah or any reach of a DE at #9. That would just be throwing value into the trash can.
April 20th, 2016 at 10:03 am
Buckner or Hargreaves at #9 is win-win situation…if they’re gone > TRADE DOWN
April 20th, 2016 at 10:39 am
Pick I agree with about 95% of your post but this love affair wit bosa puzzles me. That dude look dominant to me once. Against those softies from Oregon in championship game which ain’t saying much in my opinion considering they always get handled when they play east coast competition in the championship game. Outside of that I’ve never really seen the guy stand out and that’s against the many cup cakes Ohio st. usually plays. I just see Hardy size and frame in Ogbah. If he wasn’t being referred to as lazy and played lets say in the SEC during his time in school with his production Duke would be being mentioned as top10 draftee.
April 20th, 2016 at 11:22 am
Kevin Dodd will end up being the best DE in this draft when we look back 2-3 years down the road.
I know one thing…I don’t trust that Ayers will work out. Licht’s free agent record at DE sucks, and I do not expect that to change.