Gazing At History For The Future
April 19th, 2016
Guessing the future by studying the GM’s recent past.
So if you believe all the legitimate mockers out there, it sure smells like the Bucs will draft either cornerback Vernon Hargreaves or a defensive end.
Of course, as Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian said last week on SiriusXM NFL Radio, the thing he misses about being in a team’s war room is access. Even as a talking head privy to loads of information and NFL executives, Polian says he has half as much information on potential draft picks as he did as a GM.
That tells Joe everyone is just making educated guesses what teams will do.
So Joe looked at Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht’s past for any window into Licht’s decision a week from Thursday night with the No. 9 pick.
The three teams Licht worked with prior to his Bucs stint were Philadelphia (2006-2008), New England (2009-2011) and Arizona (2012-2013).
The Eagles selected only one first-round pick during Licht’s tenure: Brodrick Bunkley in 2006, a defensive tackle from Florida State. In Licht’s second stint with the Patriots, from 2009 to 2011, New England only had two first-round picks. In 2010, the Pats selected Schiano Man cornerback Devin McCourty. In 2011, they picked Nate Solder, an offensive tackle out of Colorado. The Patriots did not have a first round pick in 2009.
Off to Arizona Licht went for the next two drafts. There, as the right-hand man to general manager Steve Keim, the Cardinals picked wide receiver Michael Floyd out of Notre Dame and guard Jonathan Cooper, respectively.
Publicly, Licht has stated one player he beat on the Patriots’ draft table to select was wide receiver Julian Edelman. At Arizona, Licht was largely responsible for all the research done on “Honey Badger,” defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. Neither were first-round picks.
So Licht’s teams have not drafted a defensive end in the first round through the past decade. But he was with a front office that drafted a cornerback in the first round and a defensive tackle.
Given Licht’s history the past 10 years (for whatever that’s worth), how he researched Mathieu, and the fact this year the defensive end position is deep, perhaps Licht really will draft a cornerback at No.9?
April 19th, 2016 at 10:10 am
Hargreaves will be wearing Pewter & Red come the evening of the 28th.
April 19th, 2016 at 10:17 am
So, what you are saying is that there is nothing worthwhile you can glean from his history to indicate what he is going to do with the 9th overall pick this year.
Got it, thanks!
April 19th, 2016 at 10:19 am
Wonder why some do not thing that a DT is in play or move down???
April 19th, 2016 at 10:32 am
I have a feeling it’s gonna be a player that no one saw coming. We seen the bucs do that plenty of times in the past. Then again it should be a little more clearer having a top ten pick. There’s only so many guys worthy of that selection so we shall see.
Personally I don’t think there’s a edge rusher worth the #9 spot, so I think if Licht got the chance to move back he would jump all over it. It’s not a great year to pick at 9. There’s alot of good talent but they are more mid rnd guys like Shaq Lawson, Kevin Dodd, Ogbah and so on.
I hope they take Sheldon Rankins. I almost all but sure there gonna select a DT somewhere in the draft. There’s just too many 1st rnd talented guys to pass on at that position. Especially when your taking the BPA approach. Gotta get GMC some help and free up the double teams so he can unleash his pass rushing talents and show all the haters what he’s REALLY capable of. You get him a partner in crime and if he stays healthy all season he’s breaking the curse of double digit sacks,
-mark my words GMC haterz
April 19th, 2016 at 10:34 am
@jb…I agree….Hargreaves will be the pick at #9…top ten talent, best pure cb prospect, versatile and fills a position of need with all the question marks in the secondary that we have…GO BUCS!!!
April 19th, 2016 at 10:49 am
In 2014 this defense finish the season in the top 10 in three major defensive categories. With exact same players there was fall off. What was issue,my guess is its no longer in the building. I recall 87 saying fans from opposing teams mentioning that we had ways to but that our defense looked the part. I recall us looking alot more aggressive with Frazier calling the plays. So what am I saying. If Ogbah isn’t the pick at 9(the one player they’ve actually interviewed) then I’m not so sure it won’t be an offensive player.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:19 am
What about this madness I’m seeing regarding Leonard Floyd? Is this even an option to take a guy who’d back up Darryl Smith and then only be a situational 3rd down pass rusher? I don’t see the defense switching to a 3-4 unless an exotic package now and then…
April 19th, 2016 at 11:26 am
The Honey Badger dropped because of off the field issues. If not for the issues easily day one pick. Same the with Winston if not for off field issues same thing. Those guys are the exception to the rule those two guys have that it factor it would have been a no brainer if they didn’t have issues.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:27 am
Leonard Floyd crap was started by Walter Football and Charlie Campbell. It’s one of the most ludicrous reaches I’ve seen. Floyd isn’t even a first round talent, let alone a top ten. Read Steve White’s analysis on him which was just posted yesterday at SBN. Floyd doesn’t do a single thing great on the field, just several average things. What a joke.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:30 am
Walter and Charlie have the Bucs passing on Stanley, Hargreaves, Lawson, Conklin and Rankins in order to select Floyd. These guys should stop mock drafting immediately and get real jobs before they get Baker Act-ed.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:40 am
@flboy…I agree…I watched him for 2 years and was never impressed…as a gator fan we ran right at him and it completely took him out of the game…kid has a hard time defending the run…I think he’s a second round talent…I would take jon bullard or carl nassib over him….GO BUCS!!!!
April 19th, 2016 at 11:41 am
Would be nice if we could use past picks to determine future ones, but I think the reality is that you can’t, since every draft is different, and players in each draft can’t be individually compared to guys from previous drafts (although the NFL draft pundits love to compare draftees that way – guess it sells papers & collects clicks).
About the only GM who could be predicted based on past picks was Matt Millen. “In the 1st round of the 2003-2004-2005 draft, the Detroit Lions select…WR (insert Lions WR draft bust name here).”
April 19th, 2016 at 11:43 am
Realist-
Because they have starting DTs that are real good.
The team NEEDS an outside pass rush. It’s been known for a decade. This draft has a bunch of DEs
Anything else is just over thinking it.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:47 am
You could add Hargraves and Revis into the back field, but if there is no rush Brees, Newton, and Ryan will tear us apart.
April 19th, 2016 at 11:49 am
It’s not hard to see the theme of what Licht looks for…passion and toughness. You have a better chance of guessing what he might do by finding out WHO the prospects are and how tough they play than you do just trying to quantify how talented they are.
April 19th, 2016 at 12:16 pm
I used to block for Broderick Bunkley in high school. He was a halfback, yes a halfback. Every last one of his runs was the same. He’d run me over, run over the DT or LB I was blocking, run over a few other guys. He broke his leg and came back as the best defensive end I’ve ever seen. He bulked up and slowed down at FSU. I don’t know the story behind that but I’ve always felt he’d be one of the all time greats if he remained a DE. It was always bittersweet to see him playing for the Eagles and Saints, teams I hate.
April 19th, 2016 at 12:16 pm
Why am I suddenly in love with RT Jack Conklin ? It would sure put a bow on the Offensive Line for the next 10 years. (Not to mention how he manhandled DeForest Buckner). Would be a reach at #9, but man, what a player ! Maybe, we can trade back to a team that needs a QB and then pick him up. Plenty of DT’s and edge rushers to pick from in the 2nd & 3rd round.
April 19th, 2016 at 12:33 pm
I guess I’m in the minority on Hargreaves, but I don’t get the hype. I watched him get repeatedly torched when facing NFL quality talent. His performance in the SEC championship & bowl game last year was particularly awful.
April 19th, 2016 at 12:54 pm
Another stretch. This history is not indicative of anything except the needs of the individual teams at the time, and the grades on the available talent at the time. Also, Licht didn’t make the final draft decisions in the previous jobs. So, the premise of this article is bogus. No meaning or valuable information can be gleaned from the drafts at Licht’s previous stops in projecting how the Bucs will lean.
April 19th, 2016 at 1:20 pm
Pressure on a QB makes your cornerbacks better. Go with a DE.
April 19th, 2016 at 1:40 pm
No rookie DE in 2015 had double digit sacks
No rookie de will be the savior of this d
April 19th, 2016 at 1:54 pm
Licht was not the decision maker in any of the referenced instances – so trying to glean info or patterns from those examples is meaningless.
April 19th, 2016 at 3:33 pm
Watch the Bucs fool you all and take somebody like Leonard Floyd or Rankins.
April 19th, 2016 at 4:29 pm
Jon Robinson of the Titans and Jason Licht are old buddies, and guess what Robinson has an abundance of this year, thanks to the stupidity of the LA Rams ?
If you guessed picks, you are correct!
I would not rule out a trade with the Rams, who want to move back into the first round.