Did Bucs Get Lucky?
March 4th, 2016
How many games did the Bucs lose due to injuries?
Warning: Joe is going to delve into the murky world of stat geekery here.
Some numberscrunchers can’t help themselves and try to turn football into baseball, which is both rich in statistics and a sport completely hijacked by nerds this century.
Joe grew up a baseball fan, and is a former MLB beat writer, even was on the original staff of MLB.com before baseball ever heard of WAR or OBP or any other statistical graffiti spreadsheeters force down people’s throats. The game of baseball thrived for decades before this nonsense and Joe doesn’t need a calculus class to enjoy the game, thank you.
Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders tries to his best to go all baseball with football with made-up stats like “failed completions,” which frankly is an oxymoron (why not a more logical term like “failed to move the chains?”), and something called “adjusted games lost.”
Initially, Joe got dizzy just reading the name of that stat. Why not just “losses due to injuries,” huh? You know, if you have to make up stats, maybe it’s time for a hobby?
Diligently, however, Joe read further and Kacsmar tried to drum up a formula connecting losses to injuries. Joe must give credit for trying. It is an interesting concept.
Kacsmar’s research determined the 2015 Bucs really weren’t hurt by players getting hurt. He has the Bucs ranked close to the middle of the pack of losses due to injured players at No. 21.
Earlier this week, Joe brought word from the curator, creator and overall guru of Pro Football Talk, the great Mike Florio, that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is lucky he wasn’t hurt because at times he plays recklessly. And if Jameis would have been lost to injury, the team would have been in a world of hurt.
Does Kacsmar’s research reinforce Florio’s words? Sure seems like it.
March 4th, 2016 at 7:45 am
OBP and WAR existed in baseball before mlb.com. Everything is a blend buddy. Statistics are very useful. Just like actually watching tape is useful.
March 4th, 2016 at 8:28 am
The bigger the data the more relevant the numbers are, that is why baseball uses stats more than football!!
As far as Bucs were lucky??? Yes, with lovie at the helm they were a worse team than what the record says!! Not only was the schedule incredible soft but those soft teams had major injuries to star players when the Bucs faced them, How many second and third string QB’s did the Bucs face!! They were lucky to get 6 wins indeed!!!
March 4th, 2016 at 8:29 am
Injuries are primarily determined by luck…..one player rolling up on another for example. Some players have worse luck than others……some of the most well-conditioned players get injured.
I used to laugh about the “wheel-route” shoulder injury to Martin…..like somehow the route Martin was asked to run caused the injury…..or a running back running a pass route is more prone to injury than a WR….Where are the stats on that?
March 4th, 2016 at 8:30 am
I’m not smart enough to process that type of stuff but what I can process is it appeared our Dline was the most injury riddled group on the team. Why??? Maybe because of a lack quality dept and not enough talent. No worries tho Mike Smith will grab a dominant DT with the 9th maybe Sheldon Rankins or Nkemdiche and the fortunes of that unit will change. And oh by they for you who want CB with the first pick I suggest you look up Houston’s Will Jackson III, I’ll put him up against Hargreaves,Mackensie or my guy Ramsey to be honest with you.
March 4th, 2016 at 8:31 am
QB injuries are a part of the game Joe.
Romo, Flacco, Peyton, Luck about 7 others missed time last year. Similar stats from the 2014 season, when a total of 17 QB’s missed time.
This is why Licht is keeping Glennon and the Pats are keeping Garapolo. Cheap insurance in hopes of not tanking a season over a high ankle sprain or dislocated finger.
March 4th, 2016 at 9:18 am
How many games did the Buccaneers lose because of injury? How many games did we lose when Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy went out and we had to use UDFA to fill the void? How many games did Kyle Brindza cost us? How many did Winston cost us? Mike Evans? The defense suffered when Clinton McDonald went out but Gerold McCoy’s shoulder was a problem all year, it seemed. Jacquies Smith missed a bunch of games as well. Akeem Spence was not ready until mid-season, then went out on IR, Don’t forget the Kwon Alexander suspension. I counted 10 or 11 players who missed time last year. I just hope this team can find a way to stay healthy this year? Just give me some players who want to go out and hit somebody and can stay on the field.
March 4th, 2016 at 9:24 am
Don’t care what a stat nerd says Bucs offense looked different in a bad way without Jackson
Defense looked worse without a rookie lb
Injuries and suspensions hurt the Bucs. They also played the easiest schedule in team history and only won 6 games
March 4th, 2016 at 9:43 am
Yeah those baseball stats are utterly boring, who gives a crap anyway, I guess they’ll be expanding that meaningless garble to feel fulfilled forever.
March 4th, 2016 at 1:38 pm
Broncos and Panthers had many injuries during the season also. So did the AZ cards and Seahawks..and so on down the line. Yet, they made the playoffs and the superbowl. Good teams find ways to win. Bad teams..like our Bucs? find an assortment of ways to lose. Next witness your honor!
March 4th, 2016 at 5:00 pm
@Nole on Sat.-Bucc on Sun
I agree with you, I like the kid from Houston. I thought the same thing abut the D-line when Mike Smith became out D coordinator, made me think back to that tandem they had in the middle in Jacksonville.
March 5th, 2016 at 11:16 am
No doubt jw needs to stop all the running or get down. He’s too valuable to get hurt for 1 win.