Dominik: Martin Max Value Is $6 Million Per Year
February 3rd, 2016
The former Bucs GM and renowned salary cap guru talks Doug Martin
The mighty Muscle Hamster, the engine of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense last season, could be an unrestricted free agent in a matter of weeks.
(Yes, Martin was the engine. America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston, drove the bus.)
Today, the man who drafted the two-time Pro Bowler weighed in on various aspects of Martin’s value to the Bucs. Former rockstar general manager Mark Dominik was a co-host on SiriusXM NFL Radio and was asked what Martin might command as a free agent.
Dominik said he believes the Bucs will re-sign Martin but speculated negotiations could be challenging.
He cited several factors (in no particular order):
- A desire to give new head coach Dirk Koetter what he wants, and Koetter wants Martin.
- The presence of a healthy young running back like Charles Sims.
- Martin having two bad/injury-plagued years out of four.
- Martin never having a significant knee injury.
- Plenty of quality running backs about to hit free agency.
“You got to have that guy,” Dominik said, referring to Martin as a bellcow back and Sims being unproven in that role.
Dominik said he believed Martin would command between $4 million and $6 million annually from the Bucs, and guessed Martin would sign a five-year, $25 million contract. Dominik did not specify what amount would be guaranteed cash.
What’s interesting is that the 2016 franchise tag, which would force Martin to play for Tampa Bay next season, is likely to be about $11 million for a running back. That’s double the value Dominik placed on Martin.
What if Martin plays hardball and says, ‘Tag me, or let me walk.” Do the Bucs dare let him out of the building?
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:15 am
I can see a actually three year deal with 4th year option ( always makes the contract look better) with 5 million a year, with escalators going to 7 million with bonus like is if he is in the top 3 rushers in the nfl, so many touchdowns, and playoffs!!! each being a different bonuses of course!! The Buc Realist always like to dangle the carrot!!! ( yes that last part was for One Love as he loves those kinds of jokes!!!)
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:25 am
Don’t let elite talent go.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:28 am
I love Martin to death hell hes my gfs favorite player! Everytime were playing she’s like “hey there’s Doug” “whens dougy gonna get the ball” lol but I wouldn’t break the bank for him, we need to keep the long term future of or salary cap healthy.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:30 am
Sims is not Martin. Letting him walk would be a huge blunder.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:34 am
Why can’t Martin and the Bucs talk. Both sides could determine how much they wish to continue the relationship. The Bucs clearly want to keep Martin and hard to imagine why he would leave other than for $$$.
The Bucs then tell Martin’s agent we’ll match whatever the highest offer you receive in FA unless it’s north of the Franchise cost…not likely.
This seems fair to me…the player gets to find out his true value on the open market and the Bucs pay only that fair value or let him walk. Win-win.
Unless Licht believes that they can sign Martin for less than what he might command on the open market and is afraid to find out his real value.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:38 am
If we can get him at a 5 year, 5 mil deal. Buy off the guaranteed years with up front signing bonus, then have what amount to team options on the back end. If his production drops after 3 seasons, let him walk and prorate the bonus.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:55 am
Dominik also said Mariotta was the pick & Michael Clayton deserved $10 million guaranteed.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:55 am
I’d do the 4 or 5 year deal….with 2 years guaranteed…..we need to re-sign him but not be foolish…..I actually think that Dominick is about right on the value.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:55 am
Martin is a talent you have to try to keep. The more money he wants, the shorter the deal I offer him. In the end, it comes down to money. They should pay him but don’t mortgage the future.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:59 am
Demarco murray got 5 yr 40 mil. Im guessing Doug’s agent is going to ask for something similar. Doug is a much better RB than Murray, who was a product of the best O line in football.
Taking the opinion of Mark Dom is like asking matt Millen who to draft. Useless opinions. 7-8 mil is probably a closer mark that Doug is going to aim for. Hopefully we can talk him down a little, but i would expect him to start with a contract close to Murray’s.
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:00 am
I don’t want him to test the market, I think we might lose him. A lot of teams would give stupid money for a running back like him. Licht needs to get him signed, NOW
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:10 am
The top 6 RBs will be getting paid 8+ mil per year. I would certainly put martin in a group with Arian foster, demarco murray, and lesean mccoy. They all make over 8 mil per year. Cj spiller makes 4 m per year. i would put martin light years ahead of spiller. Martin will get at least 7 mil per year. At the very least. I hope im wrong. But just look at rb contracts around the league. For a young top tier rb, they arent cheap.
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:18 am
Don’t tell me we are trying to build a winning team then get rid of one of our best players. Pay the man. He’s more than earned it.
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:21 am
@trubucfan
The only difference is that all of those running backs have had very solid years back to back!!! Yes , Martin is in the class if you look at last year, but the last 2, 3 years are ugly and will be why D-Martin will not be in the 8+ club!!!!
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:24 am
Dominik says Doug Martins value is between 4M and 6M a year? C’mon Dom, you drafted him? Based on the current market value for RB there is no way Martin signs for anything less than 7M to 8M a year, maybe more. Why would he? The last thing the Bucs want to do is franchise him, which will inflate his value and they will be right back next year with the same problem. He has never missed a full season and the fact he has never had a knee injury has to factor in? It is a slap in Martins face to offer him anything less. The top 8 RB earn 7M a year or more and you want to pay him between 4M and 6M? 4M a year is 32 year old Frank Gore type money. Martin may be the best player on this team, pay the man.
Adrian Peterson $14,000,000
Marshawn Lynch $12,000,000
Arian Foster $8,700,000
LeSean McCoy $8,010,000
DeMarco Murray $8,000,000
Matt Forte $7,600,000
Jonathan Stewart $7,300,000
Jamaal Charles $6,937,500
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:40 am
PAY THE MAN!!
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:51 am
If Joe will allow the link, there are professionals that do these valuations.
http://www.spotrac.com/research/NFL/current-market-value-doug-martin-559/
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:54 am
You got it correct here Adam
“They should pay him but don’t mortgage the future.”
I want to see him come back and play like he did this last season. He is a good RB for our team, he knows the offense, he did produce in “this” offense. The grass is always greener when someone is flashing you loads of cash to come to their team and play. I feel that RB do not always do nearly so well after they move on to other teams. Yes there have been a few players that have equal or even better success on their new teams, but how many do not have that continued success on new teams. I like our RB we now have Mr. Martin and Mr. Sims are a great combination, that gives Defenses problems that have to be planing for.
Go BUCS!
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:57 am
If you’re keeping VJax for almost $10M, you really shouldn’t be trying to squeeze Martin too much.
Dom is spot on. $6M x 3.
February 3rd, 2016 at 11:59 am
Trade McCoy draft Andrew Billings. Dude is a monster. Resign Doug Martin and go get about 4 big time free agents with McCoys money. Boom problem solved. We could do all of that and probably still save millions off of McCoys salary.
February 3rd, 2016 at 12:11 pm
team has cap money, bare on talent….nobody should be pushed out the door…keep your own and continue to hone (the roster)
February 3rd, 2016 at 12:18 pm
Pssh. I say give the man the $$. We have ton of cap room.
February 3rd, 2016 at 12:24 pm
Bucco, we are not bare on talent. Sure, WR and DE are thin. Maybe some help at safety too. There are some really nice pieces in place. Re: OL, LB, RB, QB.
February 3rd, 2016 at 12:30 pm
@Supersam- We used that formula before and it doesn’t work. Stop trying to trade good players!
Signing Martin makes sense.
February 3rd, 2016 at 12:32 pm
Don’t let talent leave the building. Sign him.
February 3rd, 2016 at 1:18 pm
Mark Dominik isn’t generally managing anything more than the lunch takeout menu for the crew up in Bristol. Why are we concerning ourselves with his opinion on anything Bucs related at this point?
That said, Martin better be the Buccaneers starting RB for week 1.
February 3rd, 2016 at 1:44 pm
Pay the hamster.
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:00 pm
Mark Dominik’s max NFL GM value is zero dollars a year…
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:00 pm
McCoys deal is great compared to Suh and some other top DT. His position is extremely important to have a difference maker at.
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Coming from the man who let Michael Bennet walk…Yeah ol Dom REALLY knows value smh…
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:06 pm
Realist, you’re right. Perhaps martin hasnt had the back to back elite type seasons. But his talent is undeniable. We have the pleasure of watching him run week in and week out. He is special and he is a bell cow. He might not get 8+ but imo he will be in the jon stewart column 7+. I dont think jon stewart has ever played a full 16 game season, nor has he ever been the bell cow. He is making 7.3 per year. Doug falls into that teir if we want to go off full career picture. The fact Doug is only 26 and this contract will be his only big time contract. He is going to swing for the fences. And if the bucs wont play ball, then he will walk for more money.
I hope im wrong. I hope he bucs can sign him for 5 yrs 25mil. That would be great for the bucs. But im being realistic 😉 in saying doug is probably looking for a bigger pay day.
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:26 pm
I could see the 4 to 6 being fair considering his injury history and that 50% of his career has been below average or injury riddled. I like Martin and would like to see him a buc long term but NOT believe overpaying a RB is the way to go in this era. Running Backs have been devalued significantly and solid running backs can be had each and every year in the late rounds or via free agency. Remember it’s what is best for the team long term its not a popularity contest nor should emotions be involved with any type of business negotiations. It’s simply a numbers game, too many fans myself included make decisions based on emotion and favoritism when every great business decision is based on fact not emotion.
Doug has had 2 great years and 2 bad years that’s 50/50 same odds with a coin flip or playing black or red on a roulette table… Would you put 5 million of your own money guaranteed on Black or Red on a roulette table with 50/50 odds? That’s the question that owners and licht have to wrestle with given hamsters history.
February 3rd, 2016 at 2:49 pm
He’ll be back with the Bucs. He and Sims make a very good tandem in the backfield.
February 3rd, 2016 at 3:02 pm
Martin deal will be closer to 5 year 32 million, 7 signing at the least. Dominic is crazy low. I agree with the ‘Pay the man’ and 4-5 is too low crowd.
February 3rd, 2016 at 3:16 pm
Hopefully we sign him before free agency starts because prices WILL be going up! The cap will go higer, the spending floor comes in to play , and the quality of supply will be limited. Todays 6 million a year may be 8 million a year starting March 8th.
February 3rd, 2016 at 3:52 pm
Dominick knew how to work a contract in his later years. And he was a master at trade deals. Really, his only fault was his inability to find talent. Everything else was top notch.
February 3rd, 2016 at 3:53 pm
buc4life1979 Says
“Coming from the man who let Michael Bennet walk…”
Bennett insisted on a certain price. Dominick wasn’t willing to pay it. And neither was ANY OTHER TEAM.
February 3rd, 2016 at 4:22 pm
There is a reason why Dominick is no longer a GM or even in the front office of any NFL team……need I say more?
Pay the man!
February 3rd, 2016 at 4:23 pm
Does the Tag count against the salary cap? If not then screw it tag him. If it does, than pay him a fair amount to stay….but you know someone is going to offer him a huge payday you just can’t overpay for the guy.
New England has a different guy carrying the ball every week. I would love to see continuity on the team and hopefully Martin is willing to stay for less than the top bidding team, but if not so be it. I am still a little skeptical of what we will get from him over the next few seasons. Is it REALLY a coincidence that Martin showed up to training camp in the best shape of his career when it was his contract season???!!!!! We see it every season. There are no guarantees.
February 3rd, 2016 at 4:43 pm
Tag counts against the cap. If we tag, I guess it would be a 1 year deal at about 11 million. Players hate the tag.
February 3rd, 2016 at 4:56 pm
I think the bucs will offer him a deal at about 5-7 million a year but he is worth around 6-8…dirk doesn’t use rb that well anyway…doug could’ve been the leading rusher but dirk always became pass happy during the games…I hope their smart enough to resign him to a respectable deal but who knows….GO BUCS!!!
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:16 pm
God help us if we use Dominik as expert on resigning players sans Bennett.
enough said.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:00 pm
Tag the Hamster and put him back in his cage.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:28 pm
Lock him up for the rest of his 20’s! I like drafting Sims hasn’t created a conflict for carries…. This part of the team is a strength and young.
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:12 pm
He’s worth 8 to 10 easy, sign him now for five years at 45 million.
February 3rd, 2016 at 8:03 pm
Ci spiller is a no body in the league. And he got 4 years 4mil per. No way Doug settles for 5 mil per. Doug Martin a stud. He will demand and get at least 7 mil per. And like all buc contracts it will be low guarantee, and front end loaded. Make it happen Bucs.
February 3rd, 2016 at 8:07 pm
I loved the hamster in his rookie and contract years. I didn’t like his 2 and 3rd years. What happened in years 2 and 3 ? Was it injury or just lack of motivation that it’s not his rookie year or contract year. Just asking ! Will he still be motivated after he gets his money ? Incentives !
February 3rd, 2016 at 9:22 pm
Bear the Bucs…some will BS you and tell you it was injuries in 2013, but that wasn’t the case as he wasn’t injured for atleast the first 6 games. That’s when I called him 2 yards and a cloud of dust. He was frustrating to watch and I own his jersey so I’m no hater. I think fans forgot how horrible he actually was in 2013. That’s why I say tag him.
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:16 pm
Bear the Bucs.
Exactly.
Martin sucked years 2 and 3.
Contract year- magic!
Next year- you tell me. But players that have magically contract years- tend to suck except during contract years.
I wouldnt toe up to much money in him
February 4th, 2016 at 12:05 am
I would let him walk before I gave him 11 million. Sims is special. Add either a FA or draft one. But 5 mil is the max I would go w his injury history and more pressing needs on both sides of the ball.
February 4th, 2016 at 12:11 am
“Dominik…guessed Martin would sign a five-year, $25 million contract”
Spotrac’s Prediction: 4 years, $24,664,180
Average Salary: $6,166,045
Guaranteed Money: $9,370,000
I think I’ve heard that same prediction already – somewhere…
———————————————————–
Pickgrin Says:
January 31st, 2016 at 3:57 pm
4 years – $25M – $12M Guaranteed (which includes a $5M up front signing bonus and 2015 $5M salary fully guaranteed) will be right in the range of the deal that Martin and the Bucs will end up agreeing on. Doug gets his $10M guaranteed this year (+$2M more of 2017 salary) – and the Bucs get the last 3 years of having him under contract with small monetary risk after 2016 and very small after 2017.
Or the Bucs could franchise him for almost $12M (guaranteed) this year and be right back in this same position next year.
February 4th, 2016 at 5:12 pm
Buc1987:
Tag the Hamster and put (you) back in (your) cage. Couldn’t resist editing. Re-sign Doug Muscle. C’mon Licht and Koetter!! Glazer Bros. got the coin. Go Bucs!!