No. 1 QBs And Coaching Changes
January 11th, 2016
History suggests bad news for Jameis.
Want to know why the Bucs might want to keep Dirk Koetter? BSPN has sobering information.
Per the four-letter, only four times since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 has a quarterback who was taken No. 1 overall had two head coaches in his first two seasons. Those quarterbacks were Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, Jeff George and JaMarcus Russell.
Now you can add America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston to the list.
None of the previous four will ever be Hall of Fame worthy, though two turned out to have OK careers and a third (George) was a fantasy football player’s wet dream but a real football coach’s nightmare.
Like Jameis, Plunkett was a Heisman Trophy winner, but he struggled terribly with New England, leading the NFL in picks his fourth season (22), and was benched and later traded to the 49ers. After washing out with San Francisco, Plunkett found a rebirth with the Raiders winning two Super Bowls after spending time as a backup. Plunkett was the opposite of George. He won but his numbers were really pedestrian. Plunkett was hardly a top-shelf quarterback.
Bartkowski had moments with the Dixie Chicks and actually guided them to the playoffs three times. In 1980, Bartkowski led the NFL in touchdowns with 31 and in 1984 led the NFL in completion percentage at 67.3 percent. That proved to be his last decent season after Pro Bowls in ’80 and ’81.
George was a colossal head case and the ultimate coach killer (at one point, Chucky actually ran him out of Oakland for then-journeyman backup Rich Gannon). George took snaps with five teams in 11 seasons and only played in three playoff games. If you cared more about stats than wins (which a boatload of geeks do), then George was your Joe Montana. His attitude coined the phrase “from the shoulders down a great quarterback.” Truly a 10-cent head with a $10 million arm.
Russell was a piece of human debris, and Joe won’t waste any more time typing about him.
Just judging by what BSPN researched, if current offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter doesn’t stick with the Bucs in some capacity, then history suggests the move to run Lovie may screw with Jameis’ head.
January 11th, 2016 at 9:40 am
Yet, most people around here didn’t want to listen to the perfectly valid argument of maintaining consistency in the franchise.
Well, if history repeats here then in all likelihood it will repeat in Tennessee as well.
The Buccaneers have gone 23-57 over the past five years and 58-102 over the past ten years. That’s not a coaching problem.
January 11th, 2016 at 9:45 am
If I win power ball can I buy the Bucs?
I’ll lock up licht and Dirk for a decade. Turn Tampa into Pitt with good coaches who are there for decades.
January 11th, 2016 at 9:47 am
ask Bengals fans how they like consistency. Yes playoff games are nice, but the goal will always be hoisting the Lombardi. With free agency it’s very difficult to hold a quality core of players together forever, you simply have to have a coach that can get you a Suoer Bowl win in a 3-4 year window. Getting to the playoffs (and losing every year) simply isn’t good enough for most fans and owners. I’d personally rather sandwich a few losing seasons around a couple SB victories than going to the playoffs every year and getting bounced first round every time.
January 11th, 2016 at 9:48 am
A sample size of 4 isn’t really a sample size at all. If we are taking stock in that small set of examples then be prepared for Jameis to flame out based on the historical success of Jimbo Fisher QBs in the NFL
January 11th, 2016 at 9:50 am
Exactly!!! I think the only move that excites me is Koetter.
I do not want Saban, Coughlin or any other head coach with great credentials because that would me a total reboot. They would want total control and their reps give them the leverage to get it. Perhaps if it’s someone like that who got along great with Koetter and they both made a point of saying Koetter would provide the continuity…otherwise…give me Koetter.
The one exception…the wild card of course is Chucky! I do not want Chucky more than Koetter! Having said that I would of course still be excited if they hired Chucky. Again it’s the “control issues” that frighten me and the dink and dunk. Is Chucky really a fan of 4 vertical. I’m still hoping we can develop a deep passing game…we finally have a QB with enough arm strength.
BTW..IF any QB can survive coaching turmoil that would be #3 but I don’t want to have to put him to the test…he’s got enough other stuff to work on like consistent accuracy…although watching Rodgers last night throw beautiful passes and then miss wide open receivers makes me wonder if I’ve set the bar too high.
January 11th, 2016 at 9:58 am
Marvin Lewis & Moke Tomlin are worlds better than Lovie smith, specifically because they adapt to their talent and the circumstances. Mike Tom,in was a lifelong 4-3 guy who is running a 3-4 in Pittsburgh because that was the scheme that maximized the talent and let them play on instinct. Lewis is a defensive coach who has won with offense. When the bombs away ganging of Carson, Ocho Cinco, and TJ Housh moved on they found a very different QB and balanced things out. You can’t justify keeping a coach who refuses to adapt
January 11th, 2016 at 10:02 am
Yes but Lovie’s body of work and resume screams mediocrity. Unless you’re not trying to win a SB then I would cutting ties sooner than later is better.
We all know the ultimate goal is the SB so let’s focus on that and not What Ifs by keeping Lovie.
If it looks and quacks like a duck then I’m sorry it’s a duck.
January 11th, 2016 at 10:06 am
@Pick6
Please don’t ignore the fact that up until last year, they have had the same DC since 2004. It would’ve made no sense for Tomlin to come in and change up a scheme that was clearly working and had the players that it needed to succeed.
Also, it’s not like he didn’t come into a team that had just won a Superbowl.
January 11th, 2016 at 10:09 am
Uh, Jim Plunket was drafted by a stodgy offense that benched him, and due to ZERO free-agency – he was stuck. That is until Al traded for him and UNLEASHED him as a Raider, where his epic playoff battles provided heroics that led TWO victorious Superbowl victories…
Plunket isn’t in there because there’s some type of anti-Al bias…Plunket absolutely deserves to be in the hall of fame – it’s a travesty that he isn’t there already.
As for the other 3 guys – Bartkowski played on some miserable Atlanta teams – but had the leadership, knowledge and ability to be great – he was just beaten to a pulp every Sunday. I believe you could rank him as another casualty of a lack of free agency & no cap on NFL rosters. Teams could literally bury players on their roster – and pay them whatever they felt they deserved.
Jeff George and JaMarcus Russell – they were miserable for different reasons.
The offensive coaching is THE reason most savvy Buc fans know that Dirk Koetter’s going to be the next head coach. He wanted to throw his hat into the ring for some opportunities last year – and the Bucs showed up with a ton of money and the 1st overall draft pick…and a defensive minded coach who had just finished 2-14…
Again, it hasn’t escaped our attention that not only did we hire an OC with college head coaching experience, but the QB coach that Koetter brought in with him was the former Tennessee Vols offensive coordinator…
The only thing we’re awaiting is the Defensive Coordinator position interviews for someone who may have been already on the roster, and someone that may have been unable to interview until their team was eliminated from the playoff’s this weekend…
January 11th, 2016 at 10:12 am
I’m sorry. I don’t think keeping Lovie and guaranteeing further destruction of our roster would have been good for anyone. If Winston can’t handle two different offensive coordinators in his first two seasons, then he never had what it took to be a franchise quarterback. Barring a total disaster of a head coach selection, Winston will be just fine. He might be a year delayed from being great but he’ll get there. I like just about every personnel move Licht has done so far. I trust, until proving otherwise, he’ll make a great choice this time. His job is surely on the line now, and he knows it.
January 11th, 2016 at 10:20 am
Jameis is already rewriting history books, im not worried even a little bit.
January 11th, 2016 at 10:28 am
Seriously?
Jim Plunkett? 1971?????
Not only is that a reach, but Plunkett had Sam Rutigliano, a great offensive mind, as his coordinator for both of his first two seasons.
Russell would not have made it if he had the same head coach for ten years.
No nexus at all.
useless comparisons IMO.
January 11th, 2016 at 10:49 am
I’m glad we’re at last turning our attention from slamming Lovie to moving on!!
I think there were two camps…those who hated Lovie for awhile…and those who were upset with him but thought he deserved another year or at minimum were not upset if he got one.
Obviously the firing pleased the first group and it doesn’t really upset the second who can easily see the reasons for it. So time to move on!!!
Why are we not speculating more on the DC…I hear Schwartz a lot…any other great candidates? Does Joe Cullen deserve a shot?
January 11th, 2016 at 11:10 am
It is a full sample size. Jameis becomes the fifth this season. There are no others.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:13 am
White Tiger:
If you want a Raiders quarterback in the Hall, you are much better off arguing for Kenny Stabler or Daryle Lamonica.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:47 am
Joe, i realize it is the full sample size. what i’m saying is 4 examples don’t make a strong basis for prediction, at least not strong enough to make the decision for you. Jameis seems like a great candidate to bust both trends if it comes down to it
celly, yes Tomlin kept the same DC. that is a choice he and the organization had to make, and a point in his favor was that he felt he could adapt to the circumstances in order to succeed. Oh and by the way, when that defense began to tail off, he remade his offensive coaching staff and unleashed one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Lovie only knows one way to assemble a team and attack an opponent. when the opponent doesn’t cooperate by handing the ball over or not exploiting the same weaknesses as everyone else, we have seen the result
January 11th, 2016 at 11:57 am
Well said StPete! Who’s the next DC?
This article does raise valid points and I have argued the same. There’s a reason that certain organizations are perennially successful; continuity of a culture, winning. When comparing eras there was no free agency then. Teams HAD to build around certain players. When coaches are changed, philosophies are also changed. Not all players fit together. Is it a recipe for disaster? History is not in our favor but it does not guarantee failure either(free agency). Decisions made here right now will help determine Jameis fate and only time will tell us if it was the best decision.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:10 pm
Wow, I ended up going off on a tangent with the Jamarcus Russell part of the story. One link ended up leading to another link and pretty soon I was reading about Russell’s use of the purple drank. What a disaster this dude was/is.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:43 pm
St Pete Nailed it…
January 11th, 2016 at 4:38 pm
This is a meaningless piece of trivia, nothing more. Jameis will be fine.