“Dumbest” Move?
January 14th, 2016
Spreadsheeter not a fan of Dirk Koetter.
A lot of Bucs fans, perhaps Team Glazer too, are enamored with the work of Bucs offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.
But not all are on board.
Take the case of numberscruncher Scott Kacsmar of the well-respected Football Outsiders thinktank. While he had no issue with Team Glazer running Lovie Smith from One Buc Palace, last night Kacsmar took to Twitter and lambasted the thought of the Bucs hiring Koetter.
Firing Lovie and promoting Dirk Koetter to HC would be the dumbest coaching decision this year.
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) January 14, 2016
Earlier today, Kacsmar elaborated that his problem with Koetter is his teams don’t score enough points, and he showed a graph from Pro Football Reference to demonstrate.
That’s a fair point, but it is looking at things in a vacuum. Koetter was stuck with Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville. No need to type anything more than that.
Just look at the results Koetter got with the Bucs, not just points. Koetter took over a woebegone offense with a rookie quarterback, two rookie offensive linemen, two other linemen who were pulled off the street in August, and two under-performing running backs, one of which was a issued a virtual ultimatum to produce or leave town.
And that guy turned into an All-Pro, the first All-Pro running back in Bucs history. Oh, and the line? It gave up but 27 sacks, sixth-best in the NFL.
The passing game? Due to injuries at midseason, two undrafted rookies and a Harvard man had to play key roles. And still the Bucs offense set franchise records.
Joe respects the work Kacsmar does. Seriously. But if someone is suggesting Koetter didn’t demonstrate that he knows what he is doing on offense this past season, then someone needs to get their head out of a spreadsheet.
And we all know what Koetter thinks of analytics.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:03 am
This guy wrote the dumbest article of the offseason!
January 14th, 2016 at 11:04 am
Koetters team was 20th in points scored this year with Winston. A lot of the yards that made them 5th in yards were garbage time. I.e. Rams Carolina.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:13 am
A lot of people do a lot of things for a living. Doesn’t make them experts, just means someone is willing to pay them.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:14 am
Koetter did a remarkable job, PERIOD! Inherited an offense with line issues and no depth at receiver. The running game was a pleasant surprise…
January 14th, 2016 at 11:14 am
There were a few games this year where, if we had a slightly better defense, the points we scored on offense would have been good enough to win. #statisticiansgonnastatistish.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:14 am
LOL. Football Outsiders. A bunch of fools that create their own formulas for who’s good and who’s not. Just check their college football S+P to find out how incredibly wrong they are. Constantly.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:18 am
I’m sorry, but the HC position needs a person who can MANAGE first and build respect, i.e.. a leader. We’ve seen many amazing Offensive and Defensive ‘geniuses’ who simply CANNOT manage. Sure you can be a wiz at Xs and Os but that is just the tip of the iceberg.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:20 am
None of these “experts” watch Bucs games we on our own here… I realized this after the Lovie firing and checking racistSPN and the rest of the national media
January 14th, 2016 at 11:22 am
J Says:
January 14th, 2016 at 11:04 am
Koetters team was 20th in points scored this year with Winston. A lot of the yards that made them 5th in yards were garbage time. I.e. Rams Carolina.
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Good point. Jameis struggled toward the end of the season(especially after Vincent Jackson went down), but that could be attributed to the lack of weapons he had on offense. Adam Humphries is NOT Julian Edelman and Dontae Dye is NOT Eddie Royal!! Some of you disagree with the argument of “continuity” in the NFL, but your OPINION’s DON’T mean JACK SH!T from the outside looking in! The Players constantly complain when they have to change coaches/systems/schemes, etc and it’s the “PLAYERS” that have to EXECUTE. We should retain Koetter for the simple reason of “continuity”! Especially since we’re going into Jameis’ second year which is the toughest for QB’s!!
January 14th, 2016 at 11:24 am
I’m not sure where all this Koetter hate is coming from?
Perhaps some is from the Lovie supporters still trying to get over their hurt fee fees. Some are bogged down in stats and do not have a clue about context. As Joe points out…Blaine Gabbert!
His ASU teams were not able to beat PAC12 power teams. That is true. That’s the ONLY negative I could find in his college career. But how about some perspective…WHEN have ASU teams ever been able to consistently beat PAC 12 powerhouses? And as Joe pointed out Bill Walsh couldn’t beat them either.
Koetter was known as a players coach and he had one thug who murdered…however he also had an excellent graduation rate.
Here is what I love about Koetter. I think what you see is what you get. His feisty demeanor at press conferences was just Koetter being Koetter. He’s not much for BS.
I think Koetter could give us some of the best press conferences since John McKay…although nobody will ever match the master and all his famous lines.
Is that a reason to hire him. NO. But it is a reason I like him, and it is part even if a small part of Lovie and Dungy’s downfalls here…especially Lovie.
He was not only boring he said stupid stuff that weakened our confidence not strenghtened it. And this is coming from a person who bent over backwards to be fair in judging him.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:25 am
Without Koetter we will see a winning record in 2020.
Jon Robinson is Titans new GM….
January 14th, 2016 at 11:25 am
DING… DING… DING… DING!
January 14th, 2016 at 11:25 am
Is it me or does the length of time this is taking have anyone else feeling that Koetter isn’t the guy they are going with?
January 14th, 2016 at 11:26 am
Just tells Joe the Bucs are open-minded and very well could be pursing a coach whose team is in the playoffs.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:28 am
Here is how I imagine Koetter press conferences…Bill Belicheat with a sense of humor…in fact sometimes Koetter can have a wicked dry sense of humor.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:32 am
Ill be honest. Dont you think with the talent on offense we would have been nearly as good regardless?
January 14th, 2016 at 11:38 am
No Jolly…I don’t. Jameis was working with pretty much ONLY Mike Evans as a legit target for much of the season and he was dropping balls left and right.
Give this kid some new toys to work and he will spin them into gold.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:48 am
I’m hoping to see more no-huddle offense this year 🙂
January 14th, 2016 at 11:49 am
It’s not just “would #3 have been as good”…it’s actually could someone else have developed #3 more quickly.
We all agree that #3 is an incredibly motive football savant…that yes he would eventuallly figure it out and succeed in spite of coaching. But at what pace? What if the coach placed him in an offense that wasn’t good for him.
Again..I LOVE #3 but he suckedd out loud that first game. The first quarter of the season and the inconsistent rookie preseason made some of us nervous.
I watched Koetter on the sideline and his demeanor NEVER wavered. He was like a Sensai for #3…let’s sit down and consider what happened.
Consequently #3 made a dramatic turnaround and proved naysayers wrong..yes he could control his ints. Obviously props to #3…and I’ll concede to #3 lovers that he would have eventually figured it out….I just believe Koetter was instrumental in helping #3 figure it out more quickly.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:50 am
PLEASE… he wrote the FACTS. Not conjecture. Facts. Look how many excuses Joe had to write in support of Koetter in this small-sized article. Yards don’t mean anything if points aren’t involved. Regardless of where the Bucs ranked in yds per game – they ranked 20th in pts per game. Bottom half of the NFL. Martin is a good example of this… 1400yds rushing, yet only 6 TD’s. Koetter is a solid offensive coordinator who has produced top half of the NFL offenses for years – but he is not a barn-burning wizard whose teams lead the league in scoring. Not even close. The ONLY way the Koetter hire makes sense is if he has a true wizard up his sleeve for defensive coordinator. People are focused on the wrong hire – it’s the DC that will determine the fate of this franchise for years to come.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:54 am
So did Joe.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:54 am
The more likely scenario is whether or not DK takes the niner job.
Despite the superior talent of JW, he is west coast centric and has stated so.
Mos def would like him to stay, and totally cringe at the thought of Saban coming on board.
But,c’mon, y’all, the front office has been wacka doo
For a decade.
Hey, at least we ain’t got St Louis issues!
January 14th, 2016 at 11:57 am
Still sitting here waiting for the bucs to do the right thing or the wrong thing. Hopefully they hire koetter. Only other guy I can see being a smart hure is todd haley oc of the steelers. Aside from him it should be koetter
January 14th, 2016 at 12:03 pm
rfdes is completely right
Being a head coach has so much more to do with X’s and O’s than being a coordinator. You have to be an incredibly organized manager and leader of men, first and foremost. It’s why I think Raheem couldn’t be a good head coach at his young age.
You have to come up with a practice schedule. Not just day and time, but every single minute has to be mapped out. You have to coordinate Senior Bowl scouting and scouting meetings in general. You have to deal with mundane issues like which uniform combo are you going to wear this week, or who is going to be in which locker. Even if you delegate those responsibilities you have to decide who to delegate to and then at least review their decisions.
There’s dealing with guys taking time off for “personal reasons” which can be very real or very made up. You have to deal with the press far more than you did as a coordinator and you have to come up with a press strategy for your entire team. You have to deal with 23 year old millionaires sending out stupid tweets. Really the list goes on and on and on.
I’m not saying Dirk is not the right choice. I’m just saying that we don’t really know if he is. I suppose I trust Licht to make the right decision but I don’t think it’s as much of a slam dunk as many in Tampa seem to assume it is.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:05 pm
Of course my first sentence makes the exact opposite point that I was trying to actually make. Should have been “has so much less to do with X’s and O’s” than being a coordinator
January 14th, 2016 at 12:07 pm
@tony
Facts don’t matter to bucs fans lol
January 14th, 2016 at 12:10 pm
Koetter’s style and demeanor will be necessary to get the Bucs through tough times…..he needs to instill confidence with the players & fans. I’m not sure scoring points is more important than the overall performance of a team…..after all….we won a game when we only scored 6 points and we lost a game when we scored 30.
I think we are certainly poised to score more in 2016.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:11 pm
StPeteBucsFan Says
“I LOVE #3 but he sucked out loud that first game.”
I think Mariota got in his head at the Rose bowl and it carried over. I don’t think it will continue to be an issue throughout their careers, but it might next year.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:32 pm
Does anyone remember the points Atlanta scored and how well Ryan did under Koetter???
Was not a Winston fan but the first game was the Defense.. They couldn’t stop an old lady with a walker.. Winston tries to hard to win and we saw what happened.
This happened in several games. Winston WANTS TO WIN…
Lovie wanted to stand on the side line.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:36 pm
I’m not completly sold on Koetter as HC. Now OC, he seems confident and productive there. I won’t complain if he is the HC choice as the overwhelming majority of fans here support his promotion to HC.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:49 pm
20th scoring offense was still big improvement from last year as sad as that is.
In 2014 we were 30th in yards and 29th in points per game.
In 2013 we were 32nd in yards and 30th in points per game.
So yeah 20th in ppg and top 5 in yards is pretty damn good improvement. Not to mention the team was 26th in the league in offensive time of possession due to the defenses inability to get off the field. Oh and with a rookie QB.
How many rookie QBs have led top 10 or 15 offenses ever? Winston has one of the highest TD totals of any rookie QB ever. Think about that and apply that context to the season and 20th in the league is pretty damn good man.
Andrew Luck and Cam Newton led the 18th and 19th ranked scoring offenses their rookie years for example and both were considered to have extremely good seasons. RG3 is only rookie I can find with a top scoring offense oddly enough
Also I don’t care about the ASU situation. Sad story but if that’s the worst dirt someone can find it really isn’t that troubling considering what goes on in all other college programs. And that was like 10 years ago. Think Koettrr is the same exact man after 10 years of NFL experience in multiple regimes?
My faborite thing about Koetter is he adapts to the talent he is given. He doesn’t have a fixed scheme he has to use. We need to team him with a DC with a similar flexible philosophy and let Light give them the best talent he can find
January 14th, 2016 at 12:56 pm
You can make the garbage time argument for every team in the NFL. High ranked and low ranked. For both Offense and Defense. The Bucs do not live in a vacuum. Come on.. No logical thinkers?
January 14th, 2016 at 1:05 pm
Bucs top 10 total yards
Top 10 in First downs
Upper half in 3rd down conversion
Upper half in Rushing
All with basically one wide receiver. A rookie QB and 2 rookie lineman. Points will come withe better talent to throw to and QB experience.
Nice job by Koetter in my opinion.
January 14th, 2016 at 1:11 pm
He is right. Koetter isn’t going anywhere. Let him continue to be our OC. And we can hire a HC to lead the team. Hiring koetter when we already have him in locked in to be our HC would be stupid. We need a good defensive guy to lead our defense. Im thinking that Licht has his eyes on the Chiefs DC, Bob Sutton.
January 14th, 2016 at 1:12 pm
Actually Top Ten in:
Total Yards
First Downs
3rd down conversion
Rushing
January 14th, 2016 at 1:15 pm
@Lord Cornelius
Drop the mic! That was perfect!!
January 14th, 2016 at 1:24 pm
Stats are good for the Offense….but the “eye” test……wow…what a difference!!!
As a fan since the beginning….there have been very few offenses that looked that good (at times)….
What is missing is two things….. .speed at WR (Galloway) & A RB/FB that can get us a first down on 3rd & 1…(Alstott)
January 14th, 2016 at 1:42 pm
Koetter is a big ole “if” to me as he is unproven as a HC on this level.
If they promote him it present a huge problem that seems to be overlooked here. Who is going to run the offense? This will be a major hurdle that has potential to go awfully wrong.
If Koetter get this job he will have to assemble a coaching staff for the first time in his life. There’s no telling what his plan would be and how it would go.
On top of that he will have to figure out how to fix the personal on defense and train the players how to play fundamental football without all the repeated errors we have become famous for.
While his work as an OC is commendable it provides very little evidence that he can succeed as the head honcho.
January 14th, 2016 at 1:48 pm
The average score per game with Vincent Jackson starting was (23.7) points per game. The average score per game with Vincent Jackson not starting was (17.5) points per game. On those numbers alone I would re-sign Jackson. What stands out was that there were only four games last season which we scored 23 or more points. Only four games. Yes, Jackson played in all four. The low scoring games that stick out are Texas (9), Cowboys (10), Colts (12), Titans (14), Saints (17) and the Panthers (10). We need to give Winston more weapons. We need a stud WR. I agree Koetter was good, especially when compared to Marcus Arroyo, just not great. I just don’t see things changing on offense much, if Koetter is HC?
January 14th, 2016 at 2:47 pm
it feels like inexperience turned 7 points into 3 at least once a week, often more. hard to blame koetter for that, and blaine gabbert’s stats in the talent wasteland of J’ville hardly seem like a fair comparison. maybe it was only vs us, but it seemed like the falcons were putting up 28+ every time i saw the Matt Ryan\Dirk Koetter show on TV or here in Tampa
we may be too focused on Dirk’s track record as an OC, since head coaching removes him from that role a little. it will be interesting to see who the OC hire is, whether it’s a puppet like Leslie Frazier or a guy who brings his own ideas into the gameplanning and playcalling mix
January 14th, 2016 at 2:50 pm
Given he was starting three rookies (one of which was a quarerback; another a left tackle), a right tackle unemployed when training camp started, and a center cut by the Falcons in September, yes, agree, big time.
January 14th, 2016 at 4:18 pm
” maybe it was only vs us, but it seemed like the falcons were putting up 28+ every time i saw the Matt Ryan\Dirk Koetter show on TV or here in Tampa”
Not just us. Atlanta was 7th, 20th, & 12th in his 3 years there in PPG. On average basically a top 1/3 offense in the NFL.
In 2013 (The down year) Julio Jones missed 11 games and Roddy White missed 3.
January 15th, 2016 at 12:20 pm
BuccaneerBonzai Says:
January 14th, 2016 at 12:11 pm
StPeteBucsFan Says
“I LOVE #3 but he sucked out loud that first game.”
I think Mariota got in his head at the Rose bowl and it carried over. I don’t think it will continue to be an issue throughout their careers, but it might next year.
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If you think Mariota crosses his mind at all, you’re sorely mistaken.