Blitz Drew Brees
December 9th, 2015
Drew Brees has been lousy of late against the blitz.
If the Bucs want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, then the second of two must-wins is before them: the New Orleans Saints.
Beating the Saints would give the Bucs a second season sweep of a division foe, which would be damned good. It also helps with tiebreakers. But most important, however, it would be a win. The Bucs need to win two-in-a-row, something they’ve only done once this year.
Now Saints quarterback Drew Brees is one of the best and he is absolutely dangerous. In fact, had the Bucs not pummeled him so much earlier this sesaon at New Orleans, who knows how that game may have turned out?
But Woody Cummings of The Tampa Tribune may have found Brees’ kryptonite. The clue happens to lie in that BS statistic the geeks try to shove down everyone’s throat, and folks parrot without thought to its accuracy, the notorious quarterback rating, so he told Miller and Moulton on WWCN-FM 99.3 in Fort Myers yesterday.
“To be honest, I think the key will be the blitz packages the Bucs put together. In the last two [games],Drew Brees has a passer ratings of less than 30.0 when he is blitzed,” Cummings said. “He just is not handling – I think it has more to do with his offensive line than him – but right now he is not handling the blitz very well. He is certainly not being effective against it. I think the Bucs may want to get aggressive and throw some blitzes at him.
“Certainly, they got to Drew Brees in the first matchup. They hurt him a little bit early on. That was when ‘Jack’ Smith was available. I don’t know if he will be around [on Sunday] with that hamstring. Gerald McCoy, my guess is he will be back because he was practicing at the end of last week. Even if those guys are there, I think you still want to blitz Drew Brees because he is not handling it very well and the Bucs seem to be playing better in man-to-man coverages.”
While Joe thinks the quarterback rating stat is a pile of feces, even Joe can reason those aren’t good numbers.
[Column Intermission: Once again, for readers unaware, Joe wouldn’t wipe his rear end with quarterback ratings, partially because he wouldn’t want to buy a new supply of Preparation-H. If you believe in quarterback ratings, you also believe that Matt Schaub is a better quarterback than Otto Graham, that Chad Pennington was better than Dan Marino, that Jeff Garcia was better than Brett Favre, that David Garrard was better than Jim Kelly, that Marc Bulger was better than Roger Staubach, that Neil O’Donnell was better than Troy Aikman, that Kyle Orton was better than Warren Moon, that Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than Fran Tarkenton, that Steve Beuerlein was better than Dan Fouts, that Matt Cassel is better than John Elway, that Stewart McClown is better than Phil Simms, and that Erik Kramer was better than Ken Stabler. If you are OK with all of that — and Joe is most assuredly not! — than feel free to parrot quarterback ratings, a terribly flawed calculation.]
Nonetheless, if you get to Brees, you cut the head off the snake, it is that simple. If Brees is rendered ineffective, the whole castle comes tumbling down.
Joe would love to see what Brees’ completion percentage under blitzes is the past two weeks.
December 9th, 2015 at 7:36 am
Kwon Alexander’s absence will likely be felt…..but, I agree…Blitz, Blitz, Blitz…
December 9th, 2015 at 7:43 am
So your saying you wouldn’t wipe your rear end with a pile of feces? Me neither. Seems counter productive!!
December 9th, 2015 at 8:28 am
We need to win 8 in a row, not 2 in a row.
December 9th, 2015 at 9:38 am
5 in a row will surfice
December 9th, 2015 at 9:39 am
I don’t know about this one y’all… No Kwon, a banged up gmc, and maybe no jac smith? This win will be squarely on the offense this week. Jamies is gonna have to get us over what he did last week to get the W… Let’s go Bucs!!!
December 9th, 2015 at 9:43 am
This game is going to be all about how are corners hold up. Moore, Verner, and Banks (if Hey Jude is out) will have to step up big time for us to put that kind of pressure on Brees. Its been great seeing our defense limit big plays as of late, but a heavy blitz package will put a lot of pressure on the back-end. If they are serious about making a playoff push, then they must do whatever needs to be done to win on Sunday.
I’m riding for my team.
Go Bucs!
December 9th, 2015 at 9:59 am
Mike “Hands of Stone” Evans could be the key to this game. He’s going to get plenty of chances to make plays. I like the Bucs chances if he can catch the ball and avoid killing drives with offensive pass interference penalties.
December 9th, 2015 at 10:48 am
NO Saints secondary is a joke right now. Should be able to put up 40+ on them.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:33 am
I think the defense will hold up well enough to get the “w”…jameis must protect the ball and hit those big plays down field…I think we’re a more physical team than the saints…I hope jude is able to play because im not sure I want to see banks and/or Jenkins getting any playing time…kwon will be missed badly…the blitz packages lovie had for him were great…with that being said, im a little worried about ben Watson the te…he has been playing great ball and can be a mismatch problem in the middle of the field…as long as we stop the run and limit their big plays this should be a win…GO BUCS!!!
December 9th, 2015 at 11:39 am
Joe, your QB rating criticism is not so much a criticism of the stat as it is a statement about the evolution of the passing game in the NFL. ALL of the major passing stats are better league-wide over the last 10, 15, 20 years …. yards and TDs are up, interceptions are down, completion percentage is up. So naturally quarterbacks from this era will have better passer ratings than those from the 60s and 70s. Using the unadjusted numbers are therefore meaningless when comparing across eras (as you have illustrated) but have at least some value when comparing within a season or over a shorter span of years ….. as in Brees’ passer rating against the blitz ranks 23rd in NFL this year (JW is 18th).
In any case there are real stat nerd stats that adjust for era and quality of defenses faced and the like, such as QBR, I think that may be what Woody actually used anyway.
December 9th, 2015 at 12:27 pm
At least we are ready to do some real damage to Porker Ryan’s 32nd ranked defense dead last in the league.
Do you all realize we are FINALLY going to have a full complement of targets for #3. ASJ is back with a game under his belt and took a hard lick last week and still kept on ticking. ME is sorting out his hands problems…a bad drop but a great catch to end last week”s game to build his confidence. VJAX’s health continues to improve…now add in Brate and Humphries and of course the emergence of Sims as a genuine threat out of the backfield.
The Oline is back…Ali the man beast has a game under his belt since injury as does Dot…
As I’ve stated I feared that hiring of Lovie meant more Dungy/Gruden ball with low ranked offenses complimented by a top defense. Thanks heavens Lovie totally fooled me with the Koetter hire and the pick of #3!
For the first time I can EVER remember as a Buc’s fan I am actually incredibly PUMPED UP to see what our O can do!!! #3 might just go off Sunday!!!
I love it!!! I’m actually excited about watching our offense…I still can’t believe it!
BTW thanks to #3’s performance and our 9th ranked D the NFL has moved us up three spots in the power rankings to #15. Who’d have thunk it at the beginning of the year…why I believe I did.
December 9th, 2015 at 12:36 pm
They got to be aggressive the whole game…both offense and defense. Get after their ass and don’t let up. To me, we let down and got rather conservative against Indy in the second half. And let Ol’ man Hasselbeck pick us apart. Brees will do the exact same thing if we just sit back. The Bucs are the better team, so go out and play like it.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:49 pm
Drew Brees was affected by Carolina’s pass rush last week. Brees was pressured on 18 of his 45 drop-backs where his QB Rating dropped from 112.8 to 31.6 when the Panthers sent more than four pass rushers. The Bucs need to blitz, blitz and more blitz. Winston will again carry this game on his shoulders. He needs to be accurate and keep up the death march in the red zone. Doug Martin may have some trouble. New Orleans defensive front seven has been playing well against the run. Joe Hawley is going to be in tough going with DT Kevin Williams. CB Delvin Breaux left the Carolina game due to injury and CB Brandon Browner allowed a pair of touchdowns. I have never seen a team in my life as bad as the Saints are in coverage. Remember the Eagles?