Throw More On First Down
November 18th, 2015
Has a pattern developed among Jameis’ picks? (Photo courtesy of Buccaneers.com.)
No quarterback was hotter in the NFL than America’s Quarterback, Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston. He had gone five straight games without throwing a pick. That’s even impressive for Tom Brady, much less a 21-year old rookie.
Alas, all good things must come to an end, and Jameis was picked twice by Dallass on Sunday. One should have been caught by Brandon Myers but was tipped.
But there seems to be a pattern here. And even though Lovie Smith wants to run the ball, and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is happy to oblige, maybe mixing things up might be better for Jameis?
Numberscruncher Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times dug up interesting info on Jameis that makes Joe think, as Bassinger Twittered yesterday.
@tometrics: 6 of Jameis Winston’s 9 interceptions this season have come on 3rd down. 1st pick vs. #Cowboys was on 3rd-and-10.
This tells Joe Jameis is most dangerous to himself on known passing downs. So maybe if Koetter mixes things up a bit more it may help both Jameis and the Bucs?
Then again, that might irritate Lovie.
November 18th, 2015 at 7:29 am
@Joe … “Then again, that might irritate Lovie.”
Just couldn’t help yourself, could you Joe. I’ve been very impressed with Dirk’s play-calling for the most part. And I seriously doubt that Lovie ties his hands regarding what to call on any down. We’ve done quite well running on first down much of the time, especially when Doug’s running well. And most of Jameis’ INTs were the result of poor throws, not play design. That’s gonna happen, even to the Brady’s and Manning’s. Dirk’s play-calling has kept those situations manageable.
November 18th, 2015 at 7:56 am
Really Joes!? Not throwing picks does not equate to a QB being hot. An impressive streak, sure. But you’ve skewed the stats by saying “5 weeks,” bc one of those weeks was the bye. And 6tds (half of them rushing) in 4 games hardly sets the fantasy football honks afire.
November 18th, 2015 at 7:59 am
Upon further review, you said games, but that math is wrong bc it’s 4 games.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:39 am
Technically, Jameis had a 6 game sterak of not throwing a pick. His last throws after his picks in the last game he threw a pick could count as would the first throws in the recent he game he threw two picks. Technically, his steak of not throwing a pick was 6 games…but what really counts is that he went 4 FULL games without throwing a pick.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:55 am
Been saying….actually for years….that we run up the middle too much on 1st down…..we are still predictable…..we seem to be very successful using play action on 1st down. I also like play action screens on 1st down. We also need to use our FB more in the passing game and need to let him carry the ball on occasion.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:59 am
Comanchie!
November 18th, 2015 at 9:28 am
I’ve actually noticed this the last few weeks
I don’t chart the drives or anything crazy like that, but my hunch is that we run the ball on 90% of first downs. That’s way too easy for D’s to scheme against when it becomes that predictable.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:28 am
Been saying this all year, very predictable play calling on both sides of the ball
November 18th, 2015 at 9:37 am
Wasn’t his second pick against Dallas on first down if I remember correctly?
November 18th, 2015 at 10:04 am
The difference between Jameis and the top QBs in the league is that the top QBs are able to make good decisions and complete passes on known passing downs. The fact that Jameis throws most of his picks in those situations shows that he still has a long way to go to be a top QB. He has the leadership and will to win, that’s for sure, but his mechanics and decision making are still his greatest weaknesses.
Jameis got bailed out by the Cowboys DB on that goal line fumble and to his credit he made a great play on that naked bootleg, but players don’t often get Mulligans in the NFL. Imagine how different the conversations would be if that goal line fumble had stood and the Bucs lost. People would be talking about a major regression for Jameis and calling for Lovie’s head on a lance.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:14 am
I don’t like the attitude that the penalty on the goalline bailed out Jameis. 9,999 out of 10,000 times Jameis will hold onto that ball. It was Dallas who was on the verge of being bailed out in that situation…the Bucs just got a second chance at victory is all
November 18th, 2015 at 10:38 am
Lets keep Lovie as far away from the offense as possible.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:42 am
If Koetter mixes it up on 3rd down, the trolls here will claim Lovie is forcing him to be conservative.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:44 am
Jameis is growing. Period.
I thought he would have more picks by now, so he’s doing fine in my book.
He gets fooled at times. That’s something that will improve with experience.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:47 am
play action on first down will fix that…GO BUCS!!!
November 18th, 2015 at 11:39 am
I’d be interested to know what the league-wide numbers are in this case. 66% of his picks on 3rd down is obviously a lot, but is it that much different than the rest of the QBs around the league?
November 18th, 2015 at 11:43 am
Good take on that, creamsickle
November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 pm
I love #3 but I’m sorry Joe that int to Myers was on #3. You seem to have trouble admitting that #3 still has some weaknesses…especially when he has off days with his accuracy as last Sunday. He was high and perhaps worst of all LATE with many of his throws. He’s actually lucky he didn’t have more picks.
This is not a slam at #3. He needs to have the game continue to slow down for him. That’s happening and we can see it. He needs to be more timely with his throws…too often he’s a split second late which doesn’t matter in the NCAA but in the NFL it means a broken up pass or worst of all an int. That is happening.
He needs to become more consistently accurate. Sometimes he throws amazing passes…other times he throws horrible passes to wide open receivers.
We all know #3’s work ethic now. Trent Dilfer was right…#3 will work his tail off in the off season cleaning up some of those accuracy issues.
BTW ask any NFL WR what kind of miss they like the most….they will all tell you they want a QB who throws the ball high setting them up for a crushing hit from a safety or LB…snark font off now. #3 can be dangerous to our WR’s health…..he’s getting better at an amazing rate though so we’ll all just have to be patient.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:38 pm
What happened to ” if the ball hits your hands you have to catch it”? I mean I know that’s pretty vague, but I mean it’s not like it was his finger tips, he got up more than high enough to snag it, was it high… Yes, was it catchable…. Absolutely
November 19th, 2015 at 2:06 pm
clearly if i can sit in front of the tv and know when we are going to run a draw play i believe the defense knows too mix it up a little more cant hurt