Stat Geeks Out Of Control
November 9th, 2015
Box-score-reading stat geeks outraged at Jameis.
There is sometimes discord at the headquarters at JoeBucsFan.com world headquarters. Not enough to throw beer bottles at each other but, sometimes, enough to holler and stomp out of the room like a disgusted Gerald McCoy.
One Joe has no use for the stat geeks at Pro Football Focus in any way, shape or form. The other Joe tries to keep an open mind, but is very suspicious and wary of stats after learning in high school that stats can be twisted to prove any point of view.
However, when it comes to the grading system of Pro Football Focus, the Joes are united in their disdain. Today, Joe read something on Twitter from those frauds that makes Joe put his foot down.
This country is overrun with the stat geeks and there should be federal inquiries and legislation to stop this nonsense, unless the clowns who produce this crap show their football credentials.
The geeks put out a Twitter that claimed America’s Quarterback, Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston, was the worst quarterback in the NFL Sunday.
Now Joe is not saying Jameis made people forget Tom Brady yesterday, but this was the ultimate, perfect example of someone reading a box score and not watching a game.
And, no, watching the Red Zone Channel is not watching a game.
So a Bucs receiver had the most drops of any player in a decade and that is Jameis’ fault?
So a running back had a beautifully-placed ball dropped right in his stomach for an apparent six points only to let the ball hit the dirt and that is Jameis’ fault?
So a receiver fails to get two feet inbounds on a two-point conversion attempt and that is Jameis’ fault?
So because of injuries, the Bucs are relying on a dude whose ceiling is special teams and two undrafted rookies and that is Jameis’ fault?
Blaming all of this on Jameis may be the stupidest thing Joe has read in a while, but what do you expect from an outfit that advertises in Craig’s-List style locations for analysts with the damning qualifier: No experience necessary?
No, Jameis did not have a great game. His red zone miscues were bad. But anyone watching the game — that’s key, watching the game — came away saying Jameis had a solid game.
Joe thought Bill Belicheat summed up the clowns at Pro Football Focus perfectly: How can guys study TV broadcast tape without any knowledge of what a player’s assignment is and try to judge how well he played? And up until two years ago, Pro Football Focus relied on broadcast footage only, and anyone with any grasp of football experience will tell you there’s no way you can accurately figure out line stunts or blocking schemes off broadcast tape.
Just remember the next time you read anything from these fools, ask yourself, is the typist a guy who played football at any level, or a wannabe who may not even know what he is watching when he logs onto his NFL Game Pass account?
Provided he even watched any tape.
November 9th, 2015 at 2:55 pm
In week 3 Aaron Rodgers had over 70% completion, 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Jameis had under 50% completion, 1 TD and 1 INT. PFF rated Jameis performance higher than Rodgers.
Moral of the story? PFF is a joke.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:00 pm
Just win, baby!
November 9th, 2015 at 3:00 pm
IMO, Jameis was the best player on the field yesterday on either side of the ball and on either team.
Very solid day for Jameis.
Based on his performance, he could’ve/should’ve had 400 yards passing and a few TD passes.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:10 pm
Joe. Great story
November 9th, 2015 at 3:14 pm
“So a receiver fails to get two feet inbounds on a two-point conversion attempt and that is Jameis’ fault?”
_________
I see where you’re going here Joe, but c’mon, the two point conversion pass was poorly thrown – that one is on Winston, not the receiver.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:18 pm
Oddly, tweet has been deleted. Joe spooked the geeks!
November 9th, 2015 at 3:23 pm
Speaking of the WR not getting 2 feet down on the 2 pt conversion I rewatched that play several times and to me it looks like he got his toes down in bounds on that second foot before his heel came down out of bounds. In full speed he looked clearly out of bounds but when you slow it down I’m not so sure.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:26 pm
#BlameJameis
November 9th, 2015 at 3:45 pm
Joe, I rarely disagree, BUT, Russel Shepard had no chance of getting two feet inbounds on the 2 point conversion. He did, however, make a great leaping catch, but he had zero chance of coming down in the end zone.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:48 pm
lightningbuc Says:
November 9th, 2015 at 3:14 pm
“So a receiver fails to get two feet inbounds on a two-point conversion attempt and that is Jameis’ fault?”
_________
I see where you’re going here Joe, but c’mon, the two point conversion pass was poorly thrown – that one is on Winston, not the receiver.
I agree entirely…..Shepard would have had to be a contortionist to get both feet in bounds…as it stands, he got one a three quarters feet in.
Joe, I believe you lose some credibility when you are defending Winston….you had plenty of evidence without using that play.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:48 pm
Amen Waterboy! I yelled at the TV and posted that on the open thread yesterday immediately after it happened. I was shocked when the broadcast came back from commercial and we were kicking off! Why no replay? Is there a link to the play anywhere?
November 9th, 2015 at 3:53 pm
@waterboy
I agree, looked like his toe came down first, however could not tell if had control.
November 9th, 2015 at 3:57 pm
Agree Joe. Gave up going to ProFootballFocus.com a long time ago. Much better resource is Pro-Football-Reference.com I think because it just sticks to the facts and doesn’t try to interpret them for you. Just select you team at the top and it’ll tell you everything you want to know about each game, each player, etc. Particularly like the way they break down things per game like snap counts, pass targets, rushing, pass tackles, rush tackles, drives and then the full play-by-play. Gives you a pretty good idea of major strengths and weaknesses in particular.
November 9th, 2015 at 4:16 pm
@waterboy
Believe it or not, even if his toe came down first, if his heel lands out, it is incomplete. Drag the toe before going out, and it is a catch.
The rules are crazy, who the hell knows what is a catch anymore.
November 9th, 2015 at 4:34 pm
TAC is right. This happened to vjax a few weeks ago. Rules say that it the wr is going backwards his heel has to be down not just the toes.
November 9th, 2015 at 4:35 pm
TAC is right. This happened to vjax a few weeks ago.
November 9th, 2015 at 4:37 pm
I just wanted to say that while the loss yesterday was frustrating and tough to take, I’m not in panic mode like I was after the Titans game.
What I saw yesterday vs what I saw vs TN was like night and day. The team came out relatively well prepared (if not disciplined) and they played their hearts out yesterday. I saw guys leaving everything they had out on the field — not just Jameis but the entire team.
And to be honest, thats what I was hoping for this year. Vegas had the over/under on wins for the year at 5.5 and right now we’re on track to beat that. Hell, Joe said he was expecting 6-10 this year
I want to see our rookies getting better and the entire team playing with passion and leaving everything out on the field. For me, that’s good enough for this year and I saw that yesterday
November 9th, 2015 at 4:38 pm
The throw on the 2 point conversion was definitely high, that was on Jameis.
But all the rest were on Evans and the other receivers. Jameis was placing some absolutely beautiful passes on their hands yesterday and they all had the dropsies. It’s really a shame. He should have been on pace for a career day.
Humphries looks like he’s going to be decent with more playing time. Dye not so much, I’d rather have Ranell Hall out there.
November 9th, 2015 at 4:52 pm
I agree Joe, the grading scale should include opposition defensive ranking, injuries, drops, penalties, and such. If your gonna grade, grade it fairly. Winston played his butt off yesterday, it wasn’t always pretty, but he gave it his all.
November 9th, 2015 at 5:05 pm
DB55 and TAC – Thanks for the clarification. That certainly explains it.,
November 9th, 2015 at 5:08 pm
@CreamsicleBananaHammock
Agree…..they played very hard right until the final whistle….they seem to be very close to each other and motivated……I think this is an issue with talent….inconsistency of performance & some coaching…..the team lacks discipline but not heart.
November 9th, 2015 at 5:58 pm
As we all know the ONLY stat that matters is the scoreboard. We came up short.
Until we WIN we’ll keep getting cheap shots.
I was one of those who wanted Fameis thoroughly vetted for his off field mistakes. I never doubted his football ability or leadership. The Bucs vetted…drafted him…and so far Fameis has exceeded expectations and backed up all of those who claimed his off field mistakes were simple immaturity. I now believe them.
As far as on the field honestly ask yourself who you would rather have. I never liked Cam Newton and so I’m biased…based on results I have to give him props. But I’d still rather have Fameis.
Watching him on the sideline talking to Akeem Spence after what was obviously an incredible emotional experience getting yanked from the game and yelled at by Lovie was pretty impressive. Fameis was smart enough to give Spence a few minutes to chill and then put his arm around him and brought him back into the fold.
THIS DUDE IS A REAL LEADER!!! Scrw PFF
Mariota had 4 TD’s yesterday and I’m a guy who respects MM. But really what does that stat mean? How many passes did MM have dropped…does PFF take that into consideration?
November 9th, 2015 at 8:06 pm
Stats are what players are judged by and the most troubling stat for me is Winston’s amount of 300 yard passing games under his belt, which happen to be a big fat 0 in 8 games. Second most troubling stat are the lack of touchdowns thrown per game. The most he’s had are two in 8 games. Meanwhile Mariota had another 300 plus yard games and 4 touchdowns with absolute garbage at wide receiver and no running game. These are facts per NFL.com.In the new NFL passing for over 300 yards is very common, just look at some of the bums we’ve faced who reached that benchmark. He’s not horrible but he is below average. So much for being the most pro ready since Luck..smh
November 9th, 2015 at 8:52 pm
Your name says it all sir. Find a stat to be critical of.
November 9th, 2015 at 9:31 pm
@tnew
Spot on bro. That moron reveals is prejudice in his moniker. And since he doesn’t seem like the brightest bulb in the chandalier let me make sure he doesn’t think I’m calling him a racist. I’m simply saying he is clearly biased/prejudiced against #3 because of his love for MM.
He loves stats but doesn’t seem to like the one that counts. How many wins does MM have and how many does Jameis have?
November 9th, 2015 at 10:43 pm
@SPBF:
I will agree that his “handle” may belie some bias against Jameis, but please address his arguments about the stats.
As I’ve posted several times, I always voted “trade down” in all of the pre-draft polls. So I was not in favor of drafting MM over JW. But………… in their first eight games in the league:
MM8: 1610 yards 13 TDs 4 INTs QBR 101.5
JW3: 1897 yards 10 TDs 7 INTs QBR 84.0 3 rushing TDs, 2 “pick 6’s”
Also, as I have posted “ad nauseam”; in 2013:
MG8: 1782 yards 13 TDs 4 INTs QBR 91.6
I could probably repeat most of Joe’s excuses above for MG8 that year too.
But since the ONLY stat that counts is W-L record, I will point out that both JW3 and MG8 went 3-5 in their first eight games.
Losses to Titans (2-6), Texans (3-5), Panthers (8-0), Redskins (3-5), Giants (5-4)
Losses to Atl (4-12), Ari (10-6), Pha (10-6) Car (12-4), and Sea (13-3)
tickrdr
November 9th, 2015 at 11:31 pm
I actually thought Jameis was better than good. You have to say to yourself when watching Pats or Packers games, how many passes are dropped? There’s a couple here and there in the whole season. We had like 9 to 10 drops. Jameis was on point. If those passes are caught Jameis has a monster game and fills the boxscore.
November 9th, 2015 at 11:41 pm
Thanks for clearing that up for me TAC and DB55. I was fired up yesterday when the game came back from commercial with no review of that play.
November 9th, 2015 at 11:58 pm
i sit in the lower section and my line of sight is right down the back of the end zone line and i was very upset it wasn’t reviewed
November 10th, 2015 at 11:10 am
Joe’s distaste for Pro Football Focus diminishes his sites credibility. The hate seems personnel to me in the way you question users of this site who quote PFF to help make their point or to use as a reference. Jameis Winston’s negative score (-1.6) had a lot to do with having a clean pocket and how he performed when he felt pressure (48 percent of dropbacks). While under pressure, he completed 50 percent of his passes for just 58 yards and 3.6 yards per attempt, versus 9.6 yards per attempt when not pressured. Many of Winston’s completions were executing simple throws, putting the ball quickly in the hands of receivers in favorable matchups on short throws, which receive neither a positive or negative grade. He also forced a pass that should have been intercepted, which received a negatively grade. If a pass was squeezed through tight coverage and then dropped by the receiver it is graded positively for the QB. The context surrounding his grade is crucial. PFF does not try to quantify intangibles, or what comes pre-snap. PFF grades the execution of each play and in that regard Winston did not stand out.
Very silly post. Joe does not accept the premise you do that the PFF graders know what they are looking at, or are accurate. The “execution” of each play includes an enormous number of factors PFF could in no way consider. Factor in their graders are anonymous and many are volunteer with no credentials, Joe can’t their grading seriously. –Joe
November 10th, 2015 at 10:11 pm
Number cannot be twisted to come to any conclusion you like. People who are skilled in math may use number to persuade one to come to a certain conclusion, but the numbers are what they are and that will never change. As Bill Belichick stated, if the numbers are not discriminant they are not measuring what is intended to be measured.