From Worst To 12th
October 6th, 2015
A legitimate strong sign in the Bucs’ defensive numbers. (Photo courtesy of Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
It’s fun with numbers time!
Time to look much deeper into the Bucs having the NFL’s No. 2-ranked pass defense and ninth-ranked overall defense through four games.
Yes, those are real stats above. The “overall” defense ranking comes from yards per game, same as the pass defense.
However, the Bucs rank 30th in the NFL against the run. So is it a chicken and egg thing? Do teams not pass a lot — or for big yardage — on the Bucs because they can run effectively? Joe’s not going to play that game. Joe’s looking at a much bigger indicator: quarterbacks’ completion percentage against the Buccaneers.
Through four games, QBs are completing 62.6 percent of passes against Tampa Bay. That’s quite good, and ranks 12th best in the NFL.
Last year, quarterbacks had a whopping 68.7 percent completion rate versus the Bucs. That was worst in the NFL.
Joe finds this statistical improvement legitimate and not subjective.
Yes, the Bucs are showing signs of life on defense. But if you can’t stop the run, or the pass, you become a much easier team to beat. For reference, see the Bucs’ No. 1-ranked run defense and league-worst pass defense in 2012
October 6th, 2015 at 11:33 am
I took a course in grad school, how to lie with statistics
October 6th, 2015 at 11:35 am
Here’s your stat of the day: Since Lovie took over, this team is averaging a BLOWOUT embarrassment one out of every 4 games.
So guess what Bucs fans? Statistically speaking, we are going to lose closer games for the next 3 until our next embarrassment. Isn’t that exciting?
October 6th, 2015 at 11:39 am
does this stat take in account for M Mariota shutting down in the 3rd Quarter??? what is the rank of the QB’s the Bucs have faced???
This might work in the favor of the fans though. Lets pretend that Lovie has this team where he wants it now. So when they start facing “real” Qb’s the sheep “lovie loyalist” will not be able to claim “growth” to save the head coaches job!!!!!!
October 6th, 2015 at 11:39 am
Carolina didn’t really run that well on us. Texans / Titans did.
The defense has done well enough for this team to be 3-1. (Week 1 is squarely on Lovie & D)
Kicker & Mike Evans & Terrible Officiating = primary reasons for Houston loss
Winston & Kicker = pretty much sole reasons for Carolina loss
This is not the time to be going for Lovie’s head. I honestly thought Winston would be sharper out of the gate and if he was we could be 2-2 easily or 3-1.
We need to beat Jacksonville. Then a beatable Washington team after the bye. 3-3 going into the Falcons would be some good momentum. Giants/Cowboys/Eagles are all down this year between injuries or bad play; although the Giants are bouncing back.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:40 am
I think the defense and team is looking pretty good. WE will know after we play the Jags and Skins but, other teams are looking much worse. 49ers, Detroit, Philly, MIA
October 6th, 2015 at 11:42 am
Joe is on the BS train today. Your pretty funny though must admit.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:43 am
This year
Rookie QB
One armed QB
Backup QB
QB with no weapons.
Last year
Backup
Backup
Elite QB
Elite QB
We still haven’t seen what elite QBs will do. The Atlanta game could be very ugly.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:45 am
@ Realist
We shut down Cam Newton basically all game. We sacked / rattled / and hurt Drew Brees. The only scrub we faced was Mallet and if you saw that game his WRs were catching tough diving catches in good coverage a lot of the game over the middle to keep their drives alive.. the same kind our WRs dropped. Our D wasn’t as good that game though.. I’d say mediocre but they forced a lot of punts still.
This D has done well enough for the team to be 3-1 if the offense/kicker didn’t sh1t the bed.
They were f*cking pathetic week 1. That is all on Lovie’s preparation and the players. But they have been really solid since. Not an elite top 5 D but very solid and if you can’t acknowledge that you aren’t keeping it “real” man.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:48 am
lol.. Cam Newton = QB with no weapons. Yeah just some scrub QB.. lmao
Greg Olsen is a weapon and we shut him down hardcore but why give credit to your own team for anything?
Mariota = we obviously were not prepared for an Oregon offense. I blame Lovie 200% for that game and acknowledge he sh1t that bed hardcore in game planning
October 6th, 2015 at 11:49 am
Not buying this article for 1 moment. Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics.
The truth behind the numbers:
Titans – didn’t need to throw it the rest of the game by the end of the 1st quarter.
Saints – Brees hurt. Could argue tho this was the 1 good performance.
Texans – Who needs to throw when you run for 180 yards?
Panthers – Again, who needs to throw when the opposing QB gifts you field position.
“Joe finds this statistical improvement legitimate and not subjective.” – That is not intelligent thinking. EVERYTHING IS SUBJECTIVE TO THE FACTS.
Joe’s talking about completion percentage. Quarterbacks dropping back are completing fewer balls. From worst in the NFL to 12th in that one basic area. That’s progress. Very simple. –Joe
October 6th, 2015 at 11:51 am
Here is the only stat that counts W-L. 1-3
October 6th, 2015 at 11:54 am
You don’t get or need a lot of passing yards when you are scoring on Pick Sixes and getting turnovers in great field position. The defense has a pulse, but it’s not good and has a knack for not getting off the field when we need them to.
The biggest problems for the team are a rookie QB who is playing like a rookie, the ridiculous kicking (which should be laid at the feet of the HC and GM, who traded for him!) and just terrible head coaching. I’d love to know what this talent could accomplish with great field general at Head Coach and QB.
We would win a few more games if Glennon took over, but that would just make the season more frustrating, so we may as well suffer through JW’s growing pains and be assured of a coaching upgrade.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:56 am
Our defense sucks. Our yardage is down bc people just score on a short field after TOs every time. Classic case of “stats are for losers”
October 6th, 2015 at 11:58 am
Just so all you haters know: including Joe. The best defense in the league could not win with 5 turnovers. All from the Qb. Lovie is not going anywhere anytime soon. so sit down and enjoy the ride. he will take this team to the playoffs in the next few years. Lord Cornelius has several good points.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:59 am
Lord Cornelius Says:
October 6th, 2015 at 11:48 am
lol.. Cam Newton = QB with no weapons. Yeah just some scrub QB.. lmao
Greg Olsen is a weapon and we shut him down hardcore but why give credit to your own team for anything?
Mariota = we obviously were not prepared for an Oregon offense. I blame Lovie 200% for that game and acknowledge he sh1t that bed hardcore in game planning
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Cam has the worst skill position weapons in the league. Not just me saying, basically the universal consensus. I mean for Christ sakes Ted Ginn is his #1 receiver. He has number 4 WRs as his top targets. If Cam had VJax and Evans Sunday, easily a 300+ yard game for him. We aren’t going to get to go up against such poor offenses every week. How about we see it against some top half of the league offenses before we act like it has accomplished anything.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:02 pm
@fireLovieNow
I thought The Seahawks just did it in the playoff against the Packers last year???I am 80% sure that the Seahawks have 5 turn overs!!!
October 6th, 2015 at 12:03 pm
Seriously some of the most delusional fans in sports here. I doubt you guys watch other games because the way you talk other football teams are only giving up 3-10 points a game as an expectation or something.
The D is bad because they’ve been mostly been scored on in short field position due to an offensive turnover in our own territory? Lmao that’s the D fault? Look at time of possession if you want to make an argument like that I guess. We’ve forced a lot of punts with both Houston and Carolina. Carolina had like 1 drive the whole game for points that wasn’t off a turnover lol…
October 6th, 2015 at 12:06 pm
Lol realist the Seahawks needed every gift from the football gods to win that game. They lose that game 95% of the time at least if replayed. Terrible example of keeping it “real”
October 6th, 2015 at 12:09 pm
Lord Cornelius Says:
October 6th, 2015 at 12:03 pm
Seriously some of the most delusional fans in sports here. I doubt you guys watch other games because the way you talk other football teams are only giving up 3-10 points a game as an expectation or something.
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And you’re acting like they just shut down the Packers, so who’s really being delusional? Congrats to them for looking good against bottom 10 offenses? Is that what we’re striving for? Nevermind that they got torn up by a rookie and the 40th best QB in the NFL this season though, that should be ignored. They looked good against Cam and a bunch of CFL receivers!
October 6th, 2015 at 12:14 pm
The understandable disdain for Lovie Smith is clouding many posts…….the feelings are warranted but…..the facts show our defense has improved since game one and is not the reason for losing games 3 & 4.
Missed kicks, 1-12 on 3rd down, dropped & missed passes….
5 turnovers…..that’s right 5!!! enough said about that…..but you can add missed kicks and a fluke touchdown after a forced offensive fumble.
Our offense is miserable thus far…..can’t sustain drives….can’t score TDs in the red zone….turns the ball over…..
Fix that and we win!!!
October 6th, 2015 at 12:20 pm
@bucrightoff
You’re the one acting like we are the worst D in the league which is just delusional by all evidence thus far. All I’m saying is we’ve been solid. Not elite.
2 of the teams we’ve faced are currently top 10 in points scored on average per game FYI. The only team in the bottom 10 is Houston
October 6th, 2015 at 12:21 pm
The MVP of the season so far should be Jacquies Smith, Because if he had not of injured Drew Brees, This team is most likely 0-4!!!!!
Its as simple as that!!!!
October 6th, 2015 at 12:31 pm
Lord Cornelius Says:
October 6th, 2015 at 12:20 pm
@bucrightoff
You’re the one acting like we are the worst D in the league which is just delusional by all evidence thus far. All I’m saying is we’ve been solid. Not elite.
2 of the teams we’ve faced are currently top 10 in points scored on average per game FYI. The only team in the bottom 10 is Houston
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It’s not the worst D in the league. Somewhere in the 18-25 range is about right, but that’s right now with limited competition. When they start to play tougher competition will tell us significantly more than the first 4 weeks. Do you honestly think Atlanta isn’t destroying this defense? Do you feel confident it can actually perform against top offensive teams? And not hopeful, confident.
And points scored? Ugly stat to use considering the Panthers just dropped 38 with under 230 yards of offense. By your measure there, they are a top offense which is clearly ridiculous. Titans are average, Saints game deserves context (i.e. a fully health Brees does more and almost certainly win), the Houston performance is really awful when context is applied (look at Mallets performance against Atlanta for instance).
Sorry but I’m not going to be easily convinced that decent (and remember its decent, not great) performances against sub par units means much. We’ll know more in another month what this defense really is.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:35 pm
Joe using statistics is like Wendy O Williams singing the National Anthem. So what if the numbers are skewed. So what if the numbers are not realistic. The numbers are positive in the negative, dark, depressing world of Buccaneer. If this team wants to hold on to that 9th overall defensive ranking, I strongly suggest bringing back Alterruan Verner and think about getting Bruce Carter involved.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:40 pm
I understand concern bucrightoff.
I’m not sold on the D being great by any means. Just saying they aren’t the reason for the results of the last 2 games and were very much so a reason we beat the Saints. I’m just trying to acknowledge the few positive aspects of this team through 4 weeks with honest assessment. I don’t get hating on the defense right now when they haven’t been the problem outside of week 1
October 6th, 2015 at 12:41 pm
Paul L Says:
October 6th, 2015 at 11:56 am
Our defense sucks. Our yardage is down bc people just score on a short field after TOs every time. Classic case of “stats are for losers”
Wouldn’t that actually mean our offense sucks?
October 6th, 2015 at 12:46 pm
30th ranked run defense
Why must everyone try to find some joke of a silver lining instead of calling this what it is…trash.
Lovie Smith is washed up. Sad and depressing.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:57 pm
All I gotta say is 1-3. Football is a team sport and FYI everyone, stats are for looser
October 6th, 2015 at 12:57 pm
Our defense did not cost us the past two games, especially Houston. And who cares against which team? They gave us a chance to be 3-1. So what if its not against top five units? Wins are wins. And the defense gave us a chance. But things happen when you play a rookie qb. Not hating. I think Winston will be a very good qb, but this is part of the growing process. The rookie usualy gets his butt kicked.
Now, you can blame Lovie for not drafting a qb last year or trying to develop Glennon. But instead he went stop gap with Mccown and irt was TERRIBLE! Bad call on Lovie for sure. Year one is when you get your growing pains put of the way, but since Mccown failed and we drafted a rookie qb this year, essentially thats two years of growing pains. Had we drafted Carr or Bridge, we would probably be winning those defensive games but we wanted Jameis. I wanted Jameis. So now we have to accept the inevitable rookie growing pains without raking people over the coals. However, that miscalculation on Mccown may truly be Lovies undoing, because we as fans dont want to see two years of growing pains
October 6th, 2015 at 1:09 pm
As Raheem the Dream said before his team lost 10 straight, “stats are for losers.”
October 6th, 2015 at 1:29 pm
Thank you. Too many of you guys here are frothing at the mouth over the Bucs performances. I honestly believe the Bucs aren’t that far away and the numbers so far are bearing this out. It’s stupid to call for Lovie’s job at this point.
The Bucs defense is 9th in the NFL Sacks, 5th in tackles, 3rd in passing yards and 5th in receiving yards. Their rank on INTs is disappointing (21st) but that will get better. This may be hard for some of you to believe but the arrow is pointing up on the Bucs defense.
October 6th, 2015 at 1:30 pm
Didn’t think many here would give credit where credit is due. Bucs fans. Predictable.
October 6th, 2015 at 1:35 pm
Dan Marino had a boat load of records and the rankings, same with Jim Kelly…….Only one problem, no Super Bowl wins….You are judged by WINS, Division Championships and Super Bowls…..None of it means anything…Dungy was fired a year after 1999 NFC Championship…The defense was ranked well…Doesn’t matter though…..Stop with that garbage!
October 6th, 2015 at 1:36 pm
Let’s see how well they do when they’re not on the field ALL GAME. Or on a short field, ALL GAME. I love the improvement, but I think they’re being held down by our own offense.
October 6th, 2015 at 1:38 pm
Hey I’m not a stats guy at all. I rarely look them up, but I was saying yesterday, that the D does look to be getting better, slowly. Baby steps better. Games 3 & 4 were NOT on the defense. 3 was on Brindza and 4 was on Winston. Then again I harken back to the glory years when the team would win 10-6 and didn’t need hardly any offense because the D was THAT good. I know they will never be as good as the glory days D, but I think some fans are expecting that and right away at that.
October 6th, 2015 at 1:45 pm
@Lord Cornelius
GET IT BOY!!! PREACH!!!!
“It’s as simple as that” – Lovie Smith aka “Your head football coach!”
October 6th, 2015 at 2:03 pm
I think some people here wouldn’t know what to do with a winning team.. Their whole identity is being a “whiny loser fan” who knows how to fix everything, but whine about how “nobody listens to me..boo hoo..” I swear if I was in battle with some of you, I’d shoot you myself!
October 6th, 2015 at 2:09 pm
@ Lord Cornelius
I looked at that yesterday and I agree with you. Against the Panthers we had three TD drives of at least 80 yards. Panthers longest TD drive was about 67yards of the fumble recovery if I’m not mistaken. Most of their other scoring drives were inside of our 50 yard line. My man Jameis did our Defense no favors with those INTS and fumble, and it is dang hard to hold up under those circumstances when all they really need is to get it to the 25 yard line for any decent kicker to make a 43 yard FG.
Now that man went fumble, Int, Int, Int, TD, Int, TD. No quit in the man. NO NUT$ NO GLORY!
October 6th, 2015 at 2:15 pm
@Lord Cornelius, Amen brother, I love it when someone brings sanity to the table. I also understand some fans frustration, don’t understand all the hate. When our rookie qb starts showing consistent improvement this team will be much better. You are right the defense was not at fault in the last two losses, there is improvement, now let’s see it weekly. Arrow is pointing up!
October 6th, 2015 at 2:18 pm
Ryan Mallet completion % against:
Panthers 46%
BUCS 61%
Falcons 44%
Go Bucs!
October 6th, 2015 at 2:26 pm
Marcus Mariota completion % against:
BUCS 81%
Browns 56%
Colts 61%
See a theme here?
Go Bucs!
October 6th, 2015 at 2:47 pm
Lol CC cherry picks that stat but ignores the improvement from last year in that very same category which is the basis of this article lmao. what kind of fan cherry picks stats like that to condemn their team
October 6th, 2015 at 3:27 pm
It’s quite obvious that the defense is playing better. However they are continuously over-exposed due to the offenses’ inability to sustain drives. Which prevents the team from shifting field position and does not allow the the defense to rest.
October 6th, 2015 at 3:54 pm
Uh huh….were you even alive in 1999?
Gimme some of what you’re drinking please.
October 6th, 2015 at 4:08 pm
Cornelius. Those are not cherry picked stats. They are fact. I have been a fan since 1984 and have spent may thousands of dollars being a fan of this team. I’m not denying the improved completion %. How about improving red zone points %. Or total points %. Rushing yards %. Lets see if the Bucs D can keep Bortles with a 54% completion under 62%.
Go Bucs!
October 6th, 2015 at 4:08 pm
I’ve posted this a few times but after 4 games last year, the Bucs were outscored 119-72. After 4 games this year they’ve been outscored….117-72. Maybe there’s some improvement, but it sure hasn’t been all that much. Everyone is acting like there’s been a staggering turnaround for this defense. The Atlanta game will tell the tale more than the first four games this year.
October 6th, 2015 at 4:44 pm
‘Uh huh….were you even alive in 1999?
Gimme some of what you’re drinking please.”
Dungy WAS FIRED a year after the 1999 Championship Game. The game took place in January of 2000. He was fired after the 2001 season. A YEAR LATER. GET A CLUE. Take the meth pipe out of your mouth, blow out the smoke and try to think clearly.
October 6th, 2015 at 5:11 pm
CC
From bspn via BR
Their [Bucs] scoring defense stands 30th in the NFL by allowing 29.3 points per game.
October 6th, 2015 at 5:15 pm
DB55…ya know some of that has to do with the short field opponents have been given due to our offense man…
October 6th, 2015 at 5:18 pm
Maybe last week, yes I can agree but there 3 other games to consider.
October 6th, 2015 at 6:37 pm
Schlomie – Dungy was fired 2 years after the ’99 season that ended with a loss in the NFC Championship game.
Dungy was Bucs coach for 6 years – ’96,’97,’98,’99, 2000, 2001. Was fired in January of 2002.
October 7th, 2015 at 3:56 pm
Experienced Bucs fans are using the Dungy/Kiffin defenses as the standard, which isn’t really fair because those were some of the best defenses in NFL history.
With that said, the current defense doesn’t pass the Eye Test as a good defense yet. It doesn’t feel like they have the capacity to get a critical stop and they get gashed with the run all day long.
What’s the #1 rule on defense? Stop the run. It puts the other team off schedule and makes them one dimensional, forcing them to pass. Once you know the other team is going to pass, the defensive lineman can pin their ears back and rush the passer and you can dial up coverages to bait the QB into making a mistake.
We can talk about the Bucs improving on defense when they are in the top 8 in run defense and in the top 16 in pass defense at the same time. But if that happens, the Bucs will be winning more games than they’re losing and we won’t have to hang our hats on statistics.