The Stat Fans Hate
July 16th, 2015
Disruptions may not be so disruptive.
No, Joe is not a statgeek. Joe watches games. When it comes to comes to baseball, Joe is convinced many numberscrunchers don’t even watch, they just load their Excel spreadsheets.
Stats often enlighten. Sometimes, like statistics in any other area, they confuse and outright mislead. Once again, as Joe learned in high school, statistics can be concocted and manufactured to bolster just about any point of view.
Like many fans, Joe just loves good, hard-hitting, punishing defense. Nevermind the NFL is trying to cleanse that form of football from the game like a Stalinist-purge. Sadly, that isn’t going to change.
Another thing that will not change is the importance of sacks, and how much Joe and so many defense-loving fans enjoy seeing a quarterback, in the immortal words of Al Davis, “go down and go down hard.”
Smart defensive coaches say disruptions are as important as sacks, if not more important, because they can force a quarterback into throwing picks. And, some coaches even add that an incompletion is as good as a sack. Joe can’t go there, but point taken.
When it comes to disruption, Bucs stud defensive tackle Gerald McCoy shines for the calculator crowd. GMC is still looking for that elusive double-digit sack season, but he disrupts like few others. Per Pro Football Focus, GMC has had 125 pressures the past two seasons, the outfit’s highest-graded pass-rushing defensive tackle.
In other words, “disruption” — the word that makes fans cringe.
The fact GMC is so solid but is somewhat limited in sacks proves to those not watching games that he is pretty much a one-man band. The guy is double- and triple-teamed damned near every snap.
Since GMC entered the league in 2010, the Bucs have finished 26th, 12th, 1st, 16th and 5th, respectively, in most passing yards allowed. In other words, only in GMC’s rookie year did the Bucs finish in the top half of the league in pass defense (under not Greg Schiano nor Lovie Smith, but Raheem Morris).
Perhaps disruption isn’t as great as it is cracked up to be?
Perhaps the idiom from Davis still rings true in the watered down NFL, that a quarterback must go down and must go down hard?
When oh when will GMC get some help? When he is retired?
July 16th, 2015 at 10:08 am
125 Pressures. That does say a ton about GMC and how good he is. I would REALLY like to see how good he can become with D Line competence and maybe a but more creativity from the D Coordinator. LB Blitzes and LBs being able to cover TEs should also help.
July 16th, 2015 at 10:11 am
@Joe
Is the fact that the Bucs have the most disruptive DT in the league with THE LEAST most help around him going to make the top 20 list?? It Should.
July 16th, 2015 at 10:14 am
Disruptions are good, but it would help if we had more than one man doing the disrupting.
July 16th, 2015 at 10:49 am
[Sorry, this isn’t a message board. If you feel a topic needs to be addressed, e-mail Joe. No hijacking of topics, please. — Joe]
July 16th, 2015 at 10:52 am
If the titans thought they had what many of you feel they do have in him as QB do you really think $770,000 would hold up the process. Think about it.
July 16th, 2015 at 11:05 am
And just know I’m praying to the football Gods he gets what he wants cause I so want his a$$ on that field opening week.
July 16th, 2015 at 11:31 am
I still find it funny how some people (who shall remain nameless) still think he’s not doubled or tripled almost every play. It’s not like that’s a hard thing to see. No matter how many times they hear it, they are convinced otherwise.
July 16th, 2015 at 11:53 am
Pro Football Focus PRP (Pass Rushing Productivity) is based on sacks, hits and hurries. The question becomes how much of an impact does a hurry carry as opposed to a sack and a hit? The formula PFF uses is (sack+0.75xhits+0.75xhurries) / total number of snaps the player rushed the passer. One could argue that the number for sacks should carry a higher value than the number for hits? IMO if you “hit” the QB the play may have been disrupted where a sack the play is disrupted? In 2013 GMC was ranked first in total pressures with a PRP of 80. 9.5 sacks, 14 QB hits and 56 QB hurries. GMC’s 80 PRP was the highest ever for the period PFF has been tracking. Last year GMC had a PRP of 9.4 with total pressures of 45 however he only had 381 total pass rushing snaps. PFF stat tracking of total pressures is a way to validate a players performance on passing downs and there is no one better than Mr McCoy.
July 16th, 2015 at 12:11 pm
Good deal Joe,that’s fair.
July 16th, 2015 at 12:26 pm
Hawaiian Buc Says:
July 16th, 2015 at 11:31 am
I still find it funny how some people (who shall remain nameless) still think he’s not doubled or tripled almost every play. It’s not like that’s a hard thing to see. No matter how many times they hear it, they are convinced otherwise.
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Stop! It’s not a matter of hearing it, it a matter of seeing it. I have nothing to gain by debating this if its not true.
July 16th, 2015 at 1:42 pm
Sacks aren’t always great.
But sack-fumbles are always great.
July 16th, 2015 at 1:50 pm
I can’t wait to see McCoy and Melton blast straight through the Saints’ o-line week two.
As great as Drew Brees is, he’s still a short QB whose first instinct is to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as he can. When faced with immediate pressure from the interior defenders, he loses his field vision and will absolutely float the ball up for grabs.
July 16th, 2015 at 2:06 pm
McCoy and Melton up the middle should wreak havoc on opposing OLines. I hope Jack Smith can build on last season. If he can get consistent pressure on the edge, we could make some QBs crazy!!
July 16th, 2015 at 2:25 pm
Week one, we face Marcus Mariota. He’s tall enough to have full field vision, and he is not easily rattled. Interior pressure is not enough, because he is whip-smart.
But it will be his first live-fire NFL game, so he will fall back on his college instincts. We cannot let Mariota beat us with his legs. He’s a quarterback with cornerback speed. If he rolls out of the pocket, on either side, we we have to meet him with immediate containment. This is where we’ll see what George Johnson and Jacquies Smith are really made of.
Mariota is very comfortable throwing on the run, and has a lightning-quick release. But he’s used to his receivers getting open very quickly. If our secondary sticks to the Titans’ receivers like glue, and we generate containment from our DEs, Mariota will be forced to hesitate, and he will make the inevitable rookie QB mistakes that we need him make for us to win.
July 16th, 2015 at 2:47 pm
That first game against the Titans is critical for us. We need to start this season with a win in our own stadium.
It is not the game to play a traditional old-school cover-2 defense. We need tight man coverage that makes Mariota stop and think before releasing the ball. We also need our defensive ends to do a two-second stall before pursuing Mariota, because if they over-pursue and get behind the play, he will destroy us.
July 16th, 2015 at 2:55 pm
I am a fan of this stat. I also believe a tipped ball at the line of scrimmage is as good as a sack because it not only disrupts the pass it gives the D a good chance of picking off a loose toss.
July 16th, 2015 at 3:04 pm
Put a Simeon Rice next to him and see how many sacks he gets then!
July 16th, 2015 at 6:13 pm
Hawaiian Buc Says:
July 16th, 2015 at 11:31 am
I still find it funny how some people (who shall remain nameless) still think he’s not doubled or tripled almost every play. It’s not like that’s a hard thing to see. No matter how many times they hear it, they are convinced otherwise.
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No need to say names. The nfl players and coaches no who they have to game plan against. It’s just a couple of jack a$$e$ that think they know better than the paid professionals
July 16th, 2015 at 7:33 pm
Buc-A-New I graduate from Lakeland High in 1978, Wayne Peace was our QB. So you know i’m old school.
July 16th, 2015 at 10:51 pm
1 joe must hate stats while the other loves them. Because the other one keeps going to the stat geeks to try and sell us that bobby rainey is more than 3rd or 4th string material. But back on topic. The real critique on gmc is that he isnt consistant in the games and in the forth quarter. when we need a play, he just doesnt make them. He is a disruptive force but he doesnt close out games. Part is his play style, he has a high motor and is constantly fighting off triple teams which wear him down. We all know GMC is great, but there is still room for him to improve. And it might be as easy as him learning to take the triple teams as a play off, instead of always trying to make the play. I think he needs to rest himself for later in the game. And subing him in and out more isnt the answer. He is best on the field to take those triple teams to free up other guys to make plays.
July 16th, 2015 at 10:54 pm
You gotta turn in the games to see the doubles and triples. brah.
July 17th, 2015 at 4:13 am
@JOE
“The guy is double- and triple-teamed damned near every snap.”
LMFAO!!! You too? $hit. How many Stellas did Hawaiian buy you to say that?
July 17th, 2015 at 9:59 am
McCoy is a bust. Disruptions are a stat created by sports agents and subjective by nature. Will disruptions put him in Canton? They let Sapp and Rice go because they wanted to be paid. Why are they paying McCoy like he’s won Super Bowls?