Lofty Rookie Expectations
June 30th, 2015
Record-breaking numbers expected. Photo courtesy of Buccaneers.com.
Generally — not absolutely, but generally — rookie quarterbacks struggle.
There’s a severe learning curve coming from college to the NFL. It can be transitioning from spread-option to pro-style; but it’s often because rookie quarterbacks find themselves on garbage teams.
That’s why in the short term, Joe isn’t expecting a whole lot from “America’s Quarterback,” Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston. Oh, an upgrade from turnover-prone Josh McClown is a given. A corpse could play better.
But Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders is not thinking like Joe. Kacsmar believes Jameis not only will have a good year, but should break an NFL passing record for a 21-year old.
He should. If Winston doesn’t throw for 2500+ this year that means he’s been injured, benched or really really sucks https://t.co/YsUKhD43rr
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) June 29, 2015
Kacsmar is referring to a graphic he dug up that shows the most passing yards thrown by a quarterback at a specific age. Drew Bledsoe threw for just under 2,500 yards at 21 years old (note: this was under ground-and-pound Tuna Parcells).
Joe is going to guess Kacsmar expects Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to have seasons similar to last year, that tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins stays healthy, and that the Bucs running attack will continue to stink, which will force young Jameis to launch the ball early and often.
If all of the above happens, then yeah, Joe can see Jameis pushing Bledsoe’s mark.
June 30th, 2015 at 7:50 am
Im very confused…is this chart in dog years??
June 30th, 2015 at 8:17 am
It’s a good idea to lower expectations for Jameis a bit…..he will be a rookie on the NFL’s worst offense…..but, the good news is that there is nowhere to go but up!!!
June 30th, 2015 at 8:37 am
I don’t believe we are anywhere near the NFL’s “worst offense”. I squarely believe that OL is 90% of our worries. If it is average we will kick ass.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:19 am
Last year 2,494 yards would put you between Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick. 26th highest total in the league. I’m betting the over.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:21 am
NTM, Carr, Bortles and Bridgewater all easily surpassed this total.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:23 am
Im predicting Winston to not only smash that rookie record but all Buc QB rookie records.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:27 am
After all, Glennon broke those same records and according to most here he is awful right? Lol. Should be no problem for Winston.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:31 am
Josh Freeman set team records for yards and TDs in a season with 4,065 and 27. Jameis should have those numbers on a poster over his bed. Lofty but attainable.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:47 am
It is foolish to think we are the NFL’s worsf offense. We were only 3rd worst with no offensive coordinator and McClown under a below average center who was struggling with a name crisis.
June 30th, 2015 at 10:40 am
2500 huh? Easy pleasey!
June 30th, 2015 at 11:27 am
2500 is nothing. 4000 is the benchmark of good veteran qbs in today’s nfl. thats 250 a game. c’mon man. my guess is jameis will have 3800 24td, 18int.
June 30th, 2015 at 12:58 pm
I’ll can see the potential for the 3,800 yards, but switch it to 18 TD’s and 24 INT’s for Winston. Veteren DB’s will most likely try to confuse and bait the rookie “gunslinger” into over confident throws into windows not really there.
June 30th, 2015 at 1:50 pm
This offense boils down to one element…the OL. We now have a professional OC. We have a “franchise QB”. We have a decent group of running backs with the possibility of some real explosiveness. And when you put VJAX and ME with ASJ and now Wright…Murphy…one of the rooks?. We are talented and deep when it comes to targets for Fameis. IF we can just block.
We have to hope that our three vets turn in close to career years or at least play as well as their talent permits, and then hope that the talent advantage helps our rookies overcome their lack of experience. If the five guys can meld together as a unit and become simply competent, not great, with Koetter…Fameis and all the weapons this offense could really rock.
June 30th, 2015 at 4:21 pm
As long as he’s better than Mariotta I’ll be happy
July 1st, 2015 at 1:48 am
Jameis should pass for 3,750 YDS in a pass happy Dirk Koetter offense with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, ASJ and Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Dominque Brown catching screen passes. And then you have Brandon Myers, Timmy Wright, Louis Murphy. Man oh man Young Jameis gonna break records this season.