30 Picks
June 2nd, 2015
A CBS Sports columnist thinks “America’s Quarterback” will do what no NFL QB has done in nearly three decades, and it ain’t good.
Joe has heard, seen and read wild stuff spoken and written about “America’s Quarterback,” Jameis Winston, since he last took the field for Florida State.
The best/worst was when NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock said Winston should have thrown 40 picks last season.
Joe loves Mayock, but that was a flat out irresponsible suggestion. If a quarterback threw 40 picks, then he would be undraftable. Trust Joe, if for some odd reason the Bucs didn’t pick Jameis, then the Titans’ would have had a hard time running to the phone to pick him because of their erections.
Well, the wild guesses about Jameis continue still. In a column for CBS about the over/unders for each NFL team, good guy Will Brinson strongly believes Jameis will throw the most picks by any NFL quarterback in 27 years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130)Are you on or off the Jameis Winston bandwagon? Ultimately that’s how you decide where you go with this. Seven wins isn’t crazy for the Bucs but I’m not buying Winston as a guy who can come in and win a ton of games for Tampa Bay. I think he’s the most “pro ready” quarterback in this class and will probably have more immediate success than Marcus Mariota, but I also think he’s going to throw 30 interceptions. Yes, THIRTY. Having Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the roster is a big plus. Lavonte David might be the most underrated defensive player in the league, Gerald McCoy is a stud and this defense should be better than last year. But the schedule is slotted out poorly for a strong season from this team. Lots of back-to-back road games against tough teams and pairs of home games. I see six as the top end here.
VERDICT: UNDER
Thirty picks??? Jiminy Christmas! Joe has to wonder just why folks all of a sudden think Winston has become such a turnover machine. Did folks say the same about Matty Ice when he had 20 interceptions his last year in college? Or Dan Marino, who had 23 picks in his final college year? Or how about Ben Roethlisberger who had double-digit picks in each of his three years played… in the freaking MAC for crying out loud!
Joe doesn’t remember such dire warnings about the aforementioned players. But it’s “America’s Quarterback,” so logic and reason is tossed out the window because for some reason, Jameis drives people bananas.
And the last NFL quarterback to throw 30 interceptions? That would be in 1988. Vinny Testaverde tossed 35 picks for Tampa Bay.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:05 am
Seriously Joe, you are taking a lot of journalistic license here. You say Roethlisberger threw “double-digit” picks. By which you mean 10. Roethlisberger threw 10 picks in 495 attempts his last year in college, which is one pick per 49.5 attempts. And are you conveniently forgetting that Big Ben threw 37 TDs that season?
Matt Ryan threw 19 picks his final year at BC, but he threw 654 passes, which is one pick per 34.4 attempts. And are you conveniently forgetting that Ryan threw 31 TDs that season?
Jameis threw 18 picks in 467 attempts at FSU last year, which is a pick every 25.9 attempts.
It is perfectly reasonable for people to project that Winston will throw a lot of picks his first year in the NFL.
On the other hand, Jameis might be a lot of things, but he ain’t stupid. He knows he’s not playing for a team that can routinely dominate their opponent like his college team could. He knows that his arm talent alone will not allow him to impose his will on NFL defenses. He knows that at this level he cannot be a careless gunlsinger who puts his team in a hole, and then comes back in the second half to engineer a spectacular comeback win.
Dirk Koetter ain’t stupid, either.
I don’t think Winston will throw 30 picks this season, but I’d say 20-24 picks sounds about right.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:56 am
@Senor Mofo … Excellent points. I’d agree that 20-24 picks sounds about right.
Andrew Luck led the Colts in an amazing turnaround in his 2012 rookie season, when they improved from 2-14 the previous year (sound familiar?) to 11-5 that year. His stats were quite pedestrian (54% completion rate, 18 interceptions, 41 sacks) but out of that came 25 TDs. But stats can be very misleading as everyone knows. In Luck’s case, he dropped back to pass 730 times … third most in NFL history. The Colts OLine that year was terrible and he was constantly under pressure (sound familiar Bucs fans?). His receivers were average at best, as was the Colts running game.
What made Andrew Luck stand out as a rookie is that he put the Colts team on his back … and won. For instance, he had 7 game-winning drives that year.
Sound familiar? My guess is that Jameis Winston has that same mentality. His rookie stats may or may not stand out this year, but Jameis has shown at the college level that he can ‘put a team on his back’ … and win. The NFL is certainly going to be different (a lot different), but that type of confidence has been lacking in Tampa Bay QBs for far too long. It’ll be fun to watch his growth this year.
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:20 am
All about that line Joe. It’s the make-or-break factor this year. If that line is half as bad as last year Jameis will be tossing picks left and right like against Louisville and Florida. I believe with time to throw, he will do fine. How can you miss 3 6’5″ targets if you have time?
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:32 am
Dirk Koetter won’t put Jameis in a position to throw 30 picks,he will have Jameis throwing a lot to Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Charles Sims out of the backfield.When he do go outside to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson it will be one on one matches,which they should win with their height. It’s really stupid to even say that he will throw 30 picks,Josh McCown and Mike Glennon only threw 20 last year combine. Personally I think Jameis will throw between 8-12 picks this season,I also believe we will have a decent ground game.The Bucs will surprise a lot of people this season and a lot of sportswriters will jump on the bandwagon before the season is over, when you have Austin Seferian-Jenkins,Vincent Price,Mike Evans and Charles Sims out of the backfield as receivers, and then throw in Kenny Bell with his 4.3 speed or Louis Murphy in the slot, I only see good things for Dirk Koetter and the Bucs offense, I definitely see a much improved ground game as well as a much improved O-Line. Go Get Em Bucs.
June 2nd, 2015 at 6:49 am
I say 18-20 with 32 TD’s
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:04 am
I am more worried about Lovie being predicted to win a total of 7 wins in 2 years!!! That is unacceptable!!!!
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:07 am
The Buc Realist Says:
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:04 am
I am more worried about Lovie being predicted to win a total of 7 wins in 2 years!!! That is unacceptable!!!!
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Schiano would’ve won Moore than 7 games the last two years, with Dom!
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:18 am
Schiano would’ve won Moore than 7 games the last two years, with Dom!
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Whatever you say Greg. LMAO!!!
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:25 am
No worries mates, Logan Mankins is running gassers……
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:33 am
Has Mariota even signed his contract yet?
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:41 am
Does anybody think that Lovie is going to let any QB throw massive amounts of Interceptions?
In a hypothetical world I could see how somebody would think that Winston would throw 30 picks by extrapolating from what he did his senior year in College. But that would be if he were to run the same FSU offense for the BUCS and be given free reign to do what he wanted on offense and that is not going to happen.
Not a chance.
Lovie is still a Defense first guy and on offense that means protecting the ball (NO Fumbles or Interceptions)
Perhaps the best thing that happened to him as a QB was throwing that many picks because the next year (This Year) is a challenge to do better.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:46 am
I’ll go on record and say that I think it’ll be about 26-17…But his second year is much better. 32-12. After that, anyone’s guess. I really think he will be like a Brett Favre type and have some unbelievable plays and gut wrenching ones as well. They have/had the same mentality.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:49 am
If he doesn’t learn to read the underneath coverage I believe it.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:49 am
i wonder if they ever think about how absolutely idiotic they sound….im done with this crazy news until training camp this is just stupid. do you know how hard it is to throw 30 interceptions? but thanks whoever you are writer because in 1998 peyton manning threw 28 interceptions and it turned out pretty good for the franchise. maybe this is the season the bucs turn it around because we’ve never had as many haters as we do now
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:00 am
I have bookmarked and taken screenshots of this prediction so I can email it back to him after the season is over.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:09 am
In Koetter’s offense, Winston will probably throw over 600 passes this year. They are not going to handle Jameis with kid gloves as a player, because he doesn’t need to be handled that way.
Jameis will get frustrated. He might blow up and show out from time to time, because the season will not go quite the way he thought.
But that’s okay. Because the real goal is to get to the third-year Jameis Winston, when we have (hopefully) filled all of the other holes on the roster, and can begin the dynasty.
In the mean time, throw Jameis to the wolves. He learns fast, and he’s not fragile. He’s cocky, but with an underlying humility that lets you know that he really doesn’t think he’s all that, but he wants you to think he’s all that anyway.
I say bombs away. Let’s get this roller coaster cranked up and ride it until we puke.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:13 am
Out of his 18 picks last year only about 5 were bad decisions. The rest were bad throws (due in part to poor mechanics that he’s hopefully since fixed) or on the WRs for not executing their assignment, or defensive players making ridiculous tip-your-hat plays. So in total I think 10-12 were really on him last year where he held a significant responsibility of the play result which is right in line with his 2013 season.
A lot of these picks and Winston’s struggles last year came from teams who created and saved unique defenses just for him and FSU. Defenses he’d never seen before or got to prepare for that were close to NFL-level complexity, including junkball and bail techniques designed to bait and confuse him. That experience of seeing them for the first time on the field, adjusting to them and winning the game will serve him well at the next level.
This ridiculous 30 number is designed to get clicks because half will be outraged and the hater half will be like “See! He sucks!”. He will throw some of the same picks he threw in college until he adjusts to the speed of the NFL and learns what he can and can’t get away with. But he won’t throw 30.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:18 am
30 picks isn’t so bad for “Americas QB”…..because you would expect “America’s QB to throw 60 TDs….
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:32 am
Lol TBBF. keep fighting the fight bro.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:49 am
I kinda agree with you David,I also feel the risk will more than be worth the reward. Like the post bro.
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:21 am
@seniormofo
Nice call out, think Joe’s motto might be never let the truth get in the way of a good story or personal agenda. Those QB’s mentioned had nowhere near the talent that Winston had around him either. Hope he does well but he’s a rookie behind a bad team.
@TBBF
America’s “Most Polarizing” QB maybe. Gets tough to come to this site sometimes.
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:23 am
30 picks, do I hear 35, 35 do I hear 40, 40 in the back, 45 from the guy with his finger in his nose, do I hear 50, 50 anymore, sold to the man dressed as a woman for 50 picks.
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:39 am
So are we all just going to let the fact that LakelandBuc listed Vincent Price as one of the Bucs wide receivers go?
Queue the “Thriller” laugh… Bwah ha ha ha ha ha
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:48 am
“Beware of prophets of doom”.
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:51 am
if he throws 30 times per game on average, that’s a pick for every 16 attempts and an average of 2 per game. i buy that he may be a guy who is more favre than brady when i comes to throwing picks, but 30 is just a number to get a rise out of people. nobody stays in a lineup long enough to complete a 30 pick season, even a #1 overall rookie
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:53 am
and let’s all forget his freshman year where he was asked to do different things and – wait for it – threw way less than 18 interceptions
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:56 am
40 TDs 10 INTs his freshman year. but that’s irrelevant
June 2nd, 2015 at 10:10 am
So Mariotta has 40 fumbles then? Since that was his issue in college?
June 2nd, 2015 at 10:10 am
Yank his press credentials the guy is a hack!!!!!
June 2nd, 2015 at 10:45 am
Out of his 18 picks last year only about 5 were bad decisions. The rest were bad throws
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Dude put the Crack pipe down. Not ONE expert in the world would buy your theory there. Every pick he threw in the Fla game was a bad decision or inability to read underneath coverages. I know he is our QB and even as a UF alum I FULLY stand behind JW but lets take off the Garnet and Gold colored glasses huh?
June 2nd, 2015 at 10:49 am
pick6 Says:
June 2nd, 2015 at 9:56 am
40 TDs 10 INTs his freshman year. but that’s irrelevant
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In his Freshman yr he played on a team that had 9 players go in the first round of the draft and nobody had any tape on him. But that’s irrelevant.
Bro see it for what it is. The kid has Spectacular arm talent and has the IT factor needed to be a Stud QB but that’s it. He is a rookie. Let him be a rookie forget about the past.
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:02 am
“Buc-A-New Says:
June 2nd, 2015 at 10:49 am
………………………
In his Freshman yr he played on a team that had 9 players go in the first round of the draft ”
You want to think that one over?
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:05 am
Yeah my bad Warrick I didnt mean First round. Thanks
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:09 am
Just because I am a UF alum doesn’t mean that I am not fully behind JW because I am. As a fan of 39 yrs of which around 30 have been examples of futility, I know no other way. I want to get to know the kid for who he really is and get to really liking the kid but it so hard sometimes with some of his diehard supporters dishing out bs. No offense to anyone in particular
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:14 am
LOL Buc-a-New, setting the standard for “let’s just make stuff up because it sounds better.”Have you thought about a career in journalism? Because by the way things have gone, it looks like they’re looking for someone like you.
Here’s a thought, tell me how many of those 9 first round picks…or 9 players, were drafted from the offense? Can you say 3? Kelvin Benjamin (1st), Devonta Freeman (4th) and Bryan Stork (4th). Wow, an embarrassment of offensive riches right there. He had 3 guys on offense drafted with him. Incredible.
Oh and the “nobodies ever seen any tape on him.” Really? You think after 2 weeks into the season, every single D-Coordinator was still missing the tapes on the guy? You don’t think teams were game planning against FSU his freshman year? LOL. Yup, after the opener at Pitt where he completed 90% of his passes he was this under-the-radar guy that nobody knew about. Certainly no one knew him as he became a Heisman favorite halfway through the season.
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:16 am
Speaking for Brett Farve:
Zzzzzzzzzzzzz. He’ll throw 40 TDs how about that!
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:40 am
BucZilla, I was watching an old episode of Batman and Egghead had took over Gotham City, and you know Vincent Price plays Egghead. I wasn’t focus lol
June 2nd, 2015 at 11:50 am
Jameis will throw 30 + picks because Will Brinson said so. Whoever the heck that is.
June 2nd, 2015 at 12:18 pm
If Dilfer or King never threw 30 ints, Winston won’t.
June 2nd, 2015 at 12:19 pm
There was an article in the Tallahassee paper stating that the Florida State football program now holds the record for the most players drafted in the NFL for a three year period ………. 29 players. That is a full offense, a full defense, and half of a special teams unit, built with players deemed good enough to be drafted by the NFL. It also stated that the 2013 team had only four starters NOT drafted by the NFL, and apparently two of them are still at FSU. Many of the teams they played had only a few players drafted, so I’m not too surprised they won all those games.
tickrdr
June 2nd, 2015 at 12:28 pm
Dick2111 Says:
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:56 am
@Senor Mofo … Excellent points. I’d agree that 20-24 picks sounds about right.
Andrew Luck led the Colts in an amazing turnaround in his 2012 rookie season, when they improved from 2-14 the previous year (sound familiar?) to 11-5 that year. His stats were quite pedestrian (54% completion rate, 18 interceptions, 41 sacks) but out of that came 25 TDs. But stats can be very misleading as everyone knows. In Luck’s case, he dropped back to pass 730 times … third most in NFL history. The Colts OLine that year was terrible and he was constantly under pressure (sound familiar Bucs fans?). His receivers were average at best, as was the Colts running game.
What made Andrew Luck stand out as a rookie is that he put the Colts team on his back … and won. For instance, he had 7 game-winning drives that year.
Sound familiar? My guess is that Jameis Winston has that same mentality. His rookie stats may or may not stand out this year, but Jameis has shown at the college level that he can ‘put a team on his back’ … and win. The NFL is certainly going to be different (a lot different), but that type of confidence has been lacking in Tampa Bay QBs for far too long. It’ll be fun to watch his growth this year.
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A few minor points:
Luck had only 23 TDs that year, and only 627 passes thrown. The 18 INTs is correct, with a QB rating of 76.5
Those “average” receivers included Donnie Avery for 781 yds (admittedly the best year of his career to date), but also included TY Hilton for 861 yds as a rookie (has 3289 yds for his THREE year career), and Reggie Wayne, who has had EIGHT seasons with more than 1000 yds, including 2012 with 1355! That kind of average? The team rushed for 1671 yards for the season.
I’m not sure when they were all picked up, but their offensive line includes TWO first round tackles, and 2nd and 3rd round guards with a free agent center.
WOW, that sounds exactly like our team??!?.
tickrdr
June 2nd, 2015 at 1:32 pm
Can you imagine the headlines if it were jameis holding out and not marcus? Selfish, unprofessional, all he cares about is $$$$..just to name the ones on espn. This isnt even serious..mayock was exposed as borderline racist(im being nice) just to gain attention during long draft process. He knew jameis was #1 so he felt he could destroy him and gain clicks..hes a clown..and ben played for miami oh..jameis just played the #1 schedule of defenses. How can you honestly compare? Bens was probably 108th??? Roflmao!! And he was terrible in his ONLY big game vs iowa..4 ints, iirc??
June 2nd, 2015 at 1:49 pm
@tickrdr … I know Joe doesn’t allow links to other sites (don’t blame him), but you might want to look up this article (‘Ignore the Raw Numbers, Andrew Luck Had a Great Rookie Season’ By Scott Kacsmar , Senior Analyst Jan 9, 2013) that was posted on the Colts page of BleacherReport.
The Colts did rush for 1671 yds as you said, but as the article says ‘Excluding Luck’s runs, the ground game produced 378 carries for 1,416 yards (3.75 yards per carry). Luck had one fewer rushing touchdown (five) than his backs combined.’
Reggie Wayne is a given, but as that particular article says,the rest of the receivers unit ‘was filled with rookies and the Donnie Avery reclamation project. Unable to create much separation, Luck’s receivers generated 39.5 percent of his yards after the catch (YAC), which was below the league average.’
As for the offensive line, it started out pretty hard. Kacsmar was pretty hard on them … ‘This disastrous unit was a source for constant pressure, as no quarterback was hit or hurried more in 2012 than Luck.’ Obviously it’s improved tremendously since then.
June 2nd, 2015 at 2:07 pm
I wouldn’t have called Luck’s receivers average by any means. I’d compare the receiving options Winston has as comparable to what he had though – VJax, Evans and ASJ to Wayne, Hilton, Avery.
June 2nd, 2015 at 2:12 pm
I’d take that bet!
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:12 pm
To all the people thinking that Jameis has no hope with this so called turnover problem, all of the scouts and coaches who have witnessed him on the white board have admitted that he has one of the highest football IQs they’ve ever seen. This situation is nothing Jameis can’t work on. He will be fine and his drive will motivate the whole team. I say 15 picks at most.
June 2nd, 2015 at 5:45 pm
You can’t equate white board to actual play. Otherwise coaches would be playing. It certainly didn’t help his poor play last year.
June 2nd, 2015 at 7:14 pm
Mariota won’t have 40 fumbles because it is a different system. If he had fumbled a lot in a pro style you might have something. Yet, he didn’t and you don’t.
June 2nd, 2015 at 8:41 pm
Mayock is an idiot. And for the rest of you that rail on him about the INTs last season, you do so with no context. For those of us that actually watched him play, we know that 8 of his INTs were directly contributed to tipped balls or missed routes by receivers. To say he is going to throw 30 picks is preposterous. Although, I suppose anything is possible with this offensive line.
June 3rd, 2015 at 10:05 am
Buc a new;
What are you talking about every throw he made was a bad decision? Come on man give YOUR team some credit. I’m an FSU fan and I pretty sure I remember one of your guys make a spectacular juggle catch for an INT. I don’t remember how bad of a decision it was but the gator bite had to lay out for it and he did a great job finding a way to hold on to it.