Trade-Down Crowd Had Little Hope
May 20th, 2015
The godfather of modern scouting said this was a terrible year to trade away a quality draft pick.
Of course, Joe’s talking about storied Cowboys architect Gil Brandt, the wise old sage who still works for NFL.com and SiriusXM NFL Radio, and has his hand in the NFL Scouting Combine operations.
Brandt took to Twitter yesterday to announce that teams looking to trade down out of first- and second-round draft picks were stymied.
Joe references this because loads of Bucs fans wanted Tampa Bay to hand over the their divine rights to America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston, and collect a bounty of draft picks for that No. 1 overall pick. JoeBucsFan.com polls repeatedly showed more than 10 percent of fans were in that boat.
Joe still can’t believe so many fans couldn’t grasp the Buccaneers’ beyond-urgent need to draft a quarterback with that No. 1 overall pick. Joe suspects these same folks will shed a tear when Josh McCown returns to Tampa with the Browns in August.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:11 am
Preach Joe.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:25 am
It would have been one of the top 3 worst decisions the Bucs have ever made if they traded down.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:26 am
Odds of McCown beating out Johnny Football for the starting gig?
May 20th, 2015 at 9:38 am
Trade down… Pansy’s.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:40 am
If you were in that boat, you aren’t very bright.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:49 am
The “trade down” crowd was always trying to portray an air of sophistication with the whole trade down nonsense. In any other year, their theory might be the way to go except… EXCEPT… E.X.C.E.P.T… when a franchise QB lands in your lap in a league where the QB is pretty much the only thing that matters to a team that has never had one. A franchise QB upgrades 22 positions instantly. The offense is obviously better and the defense can rest on the sideline longer. JJ Watt and Joe Thomas, as great as they are, do not provide this to their teams. Plus, an accumulation of lower 1st round picks does not equal the value of having the number 1 QB in the draft. Two B minuses does not equal an A+. If you’re saying we have no idea how good Jameis will be, true. That can also be said for any other player that we could have drafted. End communication.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:49 am
What has Winston done yet?….diddily squat….Grayson is getting raves in New Orleans, a trade down option i mentioned…time will tell, don’t go blowing the horn yet
May 20th, 2015 at 9:51 am
Joe:
You clearly didn’t get the Matt Waldman article linked below in Morning Joe.
Quarterback drafting is an exercise in opinion, talent evaluation and luck. (Not the Andrew kind). From a transactional standpoint, the sunk cost fallacy explains more than the tape ever will. As Waldman points out, the impact of a top-notch quarterback is greater than the impact of other positions. So teams fish for”The One” even though absolute odds are against them — because the payoff for hitting is perceived as greater than the loss caused by a bad choice. And once the team falls for a new savior, the sunk cost of the pick and the training overwhelm the organization–at least until the new coaching team comes in to put new eyes on the mess. See Freeman. Or Manuel today. NFL may mean “not for long”” in other contexts, but there is supreme patience for high qb picks.
I hope Winston turns out well, and I imagine he will. But a 6th beat a 3rd last year when the cream rose to the top. An UDDA threatens to rise this year behind a stud line in Dallas. So, while a trade did not happen and may not have been wise, the Joes should think on the Waldman link.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:51 am
The “aftermath” stories that came out about Licht being locked into Jameis since LAST YEAR (still lol’ing at Chris Landry’s assertion that he was advising the Bucs and that they were leaning Mariota) and that he never considered trading down have really upped my confidence in our front office.
May 20th, 2015 at 9:59 am
CreamsicleBananaHammock:
At the risk of inflaming some, if Landry claimed Licht was leaning Mariota, that means either Landry got conned by Licht or Landry is out of touch.
Hell, Licht told Joe to his face he personally was scouting Winston as a redshirt freshman and had serious talks with the Cardinals about acquiring him when he declared for the draft.
Can’t remember who had the story, but someone last year texted Licht and asked “Manzel or Bridgewater?” and Licht responded, “Winston.”
Only folks who were convinced the Bucs would take Mariota were either @UFOJoe or the blind Winston haters (which included @UFOJoe)
May 20th, 2015 at 10:01 am
@Nick:
Two words: Matthew Stafford.
He REALLY upgraded his team.
In hindsight and in foresight as well it was hard for the Bucs not to go with Winston. There simply were too few teams with the need AND the ammunition to move up. Cleveland maybe, but that is a commentary on a dysfunctional organization. Or, to put it another way, Green Bay NE Seattle et al. were not interested in taking Jameis.
Hope it works, but as the linked article points out, the odds of taking a qb are lower than the odds for other positions. We took a gamble. Hope it works, but don’t pretend we weren’t at the table.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:04 am
just insulting to even mention freeman or E.J. Manuel in a Winston article…..neither one of those two you mentioned were even though of as first round picks or considered very accurate or good decision makers with the football. basically they are everything scouts thought they would be. just insulting. neither qb you mentioned would have ever been considered the best choice for 1st overall pick in any draft in history past present or future which is why they went 16th and 17th in the first round for desperate teams
May 20th, 2015 at 10:04 am
Glad fans don’t make decisions
May 20th, 2015 at 10:05 am
@Lou
Pointing out that Wilson was a 3rd, Brady a 6th and Romo an UDFA, does not bolster the point that a team should go this route. They are exceptions in every sense. You have to compare them to the hundreds of 3rd and 6th rounders that flame out, and in Romo’s case, the thousands of QBs that went undrafted that flamed out or never made it. Conversely, a 1st round draft pick has about a 50% chance of succeeding in the league. Obviously, the stakes are higher if you miss with a 1st rounder (ie. cap and time considerations) but the success rate is MUCH higher. Jameis was by far the safest pick of this draft for the Bucs with the potential of seeing instant improvement.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:06 am
Joe Says:
May 20th, 2015 at 9:59 am
“Only folks who were convinced the Bucs would take Mariota were either @UFOJoe or the blind Winston haters (which included @UFOJoe”
And also, the Bucs jersey bet welcher, Erik at cleanathletics.com. I truly believed he would man up and honor his bet with 87. What a poor loser and liar that guy is.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:10 am
@Lou
I don’t see a linked article. But 2 points:
1) Matthew Stafford, if drafted by the Bucs, would be the greatest QB in our franchise’s history.
2) Success rates for all 1st rounders (QBs included) have been proven to be largely the same. Around 50%. QB busts just get more press.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:13 am
Anyone banking on a sixth round pick to be a Hall of Famer or an UDFA to be a Pro Bowler at quarterback is banking on a complete and total accident. In fact, any general manager claiming that to an owner would be setting himself up to be fired.
But it’s OK to boast in a bar if you play fantasy football (keyword: fantasy).
As Belicheat himself has said, if the Pats thought Brady was going to be this good, they sure as hell wouldn’t have waited until the sixth round to draft him.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:42 am
I think the best QB (Hundley) went in the 5th. Imagine what they could have gotten with the Brownie’s 2 1sts and their 2nd plus JF
May 20th, 2015 at 10:42 am
Scary to think the Browns QB situation was nearly ours. Until the miracle on One Buc happened
May 20th, 2015 at 10:44 am
Love and Warrick, after all of that, Erik Cleanguy never gave 87 a jersey!?!? And HE complained about Winstons character!!!
May 20th, 2015 at 10:56 am
I was a part of the trade down crowd. We still don’t have an offensive line to speak of and all of you claiming that Winston is the first franchise QB are very young or don’t know much about Bucs history. If it wasn’t for a racist owner in Hugh Culverhouse, Doug Williams would have stayed in Tampa. If he wasn’t a franchise QB then I am sure his name wouldn’t be going on the stadium. I am pulling for Winston because I am a BUCS fan. By the way Joe, until Winston wins a game I think it’s better to call him Hillsboroughs QB.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:57 am
I’m glad the Bucs didn’t trade down, although I thought there were a few reasons why it might happen and/or what the benefits might be if Licht decided to trade the pick. It’s way too early to tell if Winston will accomplish great things in a Bucs uniform, but he was the right choice under the circumstances imo.
May 20th, 2015 at 10:58 am
“BuccaneEric Says:
May 20th, 2015 at 10:44 am
Love and Warrick, after all of that, Erik Cleanguy never gave 87 a jersey!?!? And HE complained about Winstons character!!!”
Nope, posted a few times after, but, never replied to 87 and has basically disappeared.
This is his email – erik@cleanathletics.com
Everyone should remind him. That’s just weak, weak sauce.
May 20th, 2015 at 11:13 am
@James
We drafted 2 offensive linemen with premium picks. Would you have preferred 4? 5?
I understand what Mr. Williams meant as a trailblazer and what he means to this community. But in 4+ seasons his record was 33-33-1. His TD/Int totals were 73-73. He won a single playoff game for us. By any definition, he was an average quarterback during his tenure in Tampa. It definitely beats horrible but he was never great.
May 20th, 2015 at 11:20 am
baloney to those who say D.Williams wasn’t great…have a look at the last few games he played here in 1982. before his career was dismantled…he was just scratching the surface…
May 20th, 2015 at 11:29 am
@Nick: Perhaps Bradford is a more exact comparison– #1 overall and all that.
@Joe: My point is not to complain about the pick but to point out that qb evaluation and scouting is seriously flawed– a point your link made too. The outstanding low draft pick qbs may be rare on absolute numbers but they are a very high percentage of the elite. Team rosters are stuffed with high picks. The HoF, the measure of true greatness, features lower choices that produced in disproportionate numbers. It seems there is something broken in the evaluation process when players passed over by every team at least once outshine the top choices.
May 20th, 2015 at 11:29 am
We have seriously undervalued true greatness in this town. “Great for us” does not equal “greatness”.
May 20th, 2015 at 11:49 am
Joe-
And also included Landry who leading up to the draft called Winston lazy, uncoachable and “me first.” The guy also spread lies about Winston, saying that Jimbo told him to go pro because he didn’t want him at FSU anymore (yea, bc Jimbo would rather have Sean Maguire running his offense than America’s Quarterback) and that the crab leg incident was “covered up.” Right, if by covered up you mean Jameis was arrested, suspended, and video of the freaking incident was released.
I’m sorry and I don’t want to go on a rant here, but if I’m Duemig I never let Chris Landry make a mockery of my radio show again by letting him on so he can lie and say he’s “in the know”…
These reports about Licht being locked into Winston since last year (the text about his brother in law asking Manziel or Bridgewater is a great story) shows what a joke Landry is, and for him to be allowed to call himself an “insider” after VERY FORCEFULLY STATING that the Bucs weren’t close to having their minds made up, but based on his inside info with Lovie he’d be shocked if the didn’t take Mariota, is a joke.
May 20th, 2015 at 7:51 pm
Brady was not only a 6th round pick but he was the Pats 3 pick in the 6th round. They had three, 6th round picks that year and Brady was the last.
May 20th, 2015 at 11:14 pm
If Winston succeeds then all will be good in Tampa Bay and the “trade down” crowd will slowly start to embrace their franchise qb. If he flames then all bets would be off as the armchair critics will all be claiming that the Bucs should have done a Rams/RG3 deal…. But to those critics I say this: the Rams appear to have got the better of the RG3 deal but they are still a 6 win franchise as they do not have a franchise qb; the Skins are simply a bad team with a bad owner who make bone headed move after bone headed move.. Thus neither team won in that trade and the Bucs would be just like the Lambs if they traded out of the 1 hole for some high draft picks that are dice rolls in themselves…..