Hot Seat?
May 26th, 2015
As a reader of Joe’s pointed out yesterday, if the Bucs have what Joe expects to be a 6-10 season, that means in two years Bucs coach Lovie Smith has won but eight games.
No, that’s not good. But Team Glazer always points to where the needle is pointing after a season. If Lovie triples his win total with six wins this fall, despite fans wanting to kick the neighbor’s cat in frustration, that means the needle is pointing up.
It seems FoxSports.com believes Lovie is on the hot seat, and it really has nothing to do with wins. It has to do with Jameis Winston, “America’s Quarterback.”
After finishing 2-14, Tampa Bay was a disaster in Smith’s first season as head coach. Smith is now staking his Buccaneers future on Jameis Winston becoming a franchise quarterback and assuaging off-field character concerns that enshrouded him at Florida State.
As the Brits would say, this is rubbish (and in Great Britain, “rubbish” means something Joe will not print). Good grief, Team Glazer itself signed off on drafting Jameis!
If anything, Jameis buys Lovie time. Only the irrational believe Jameis can lead the Bucs to the playoffs, or even a playoff run, in his rookie year. Yeah, rookies have done that before, but maybe once a decade from a two-win team.
Joe is pretty confident Jameis buys Lovie at least enough time to last through the 2016 season.
May 26th, 2015 at 7:15 am
Color me irrational.
May 26th, 2015 at 7:17 am
It just shows the owners don’t know what they are doing.
May 26th, 2015 at 7:20 am
Winston does buy Lovie time. I think the only way Lovie gets the hook is if the Bucs lose 13 or more games. There is no way Lovie can repeat Leeman Bennett’s ’85/86 run by going 4-28 and expect to save his job and 5-27 will probably show him the door as well. I think it is possible he gets fired if the Bucs win 4 to 7 games as well depending on how the season goes. For example if the Bucs start decently and pull a Rah Morris 2012 and finish 4-12 well then he is gone and if he starts a stunning “5 dash 2” and the team flails to 6-10 or 7 -9 then he is toast as well. But if they start 1-7 and finish 4-12 or 5-11 with Winston and the OL showing promise, well that will keep him around as long as he team shows improvement right up until the last game of the season (not just a 4-1 spurt like Schiano’s 2013 squad had sandwiched between the 0-8 start and the 0-3 finish with the team obviously quitting)…. I am with Joe and others thinking that 6-10 is reasonable and as long as that does not include a 5+ game slide to end 2015 I think Lovie will be back for 2016….
May 26th, 2015 at 7:34 am
I find it hard to believe with all the rebuilding we have recently been doing that Lovie is anywhere near the hot seat. It would set us back another 5 years to shift gears and go in another direction- especially on defense!
May 26th, 2015 at 7:37 am
The Bucs will improve on the two wins without a doubt in my mind. Three wins would do that. This team is better than that, and my ears aren’t that plugged and my glasses aren’t that thick. I got the deaf and blind factors held off, and I would be dumb to think the Bucs are Super Bowl bound.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:00 am
I think Lovie is safe after next season regardless of win total or Jameis’ actions. However, if we are not a 8-8 team by the end of the 2016-2017 season then no way Lovie survives and makes it to the 4th season on his contract. I fully expect another top 10 pick next year. If Lovie cant make it to .500 after 3 drafts with top 10 picks, then he has to go.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:06 am
I hope Lovie gets things turned around, but if he doesn’t, I’m glad we have someone like Dirk Koetter who would be capable of taking over.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:29 am
It’s all about progress, gentlemen.
If Winston emerges as the top prospect we think he is, and gets better and better as the season plays out, then in all likelihood the coaching regime will return the following season regardless of the team’s record.
The most important thing, and by substantial margin, is Winston’s development. And bringing in a new coaching staff would retard his growth.
And besides, we would be on the fifth different coaching in nine seasons. And that is not a recipe for winning in the NFL (or hell, in Little League).
May 26th, 2015 at 8:32 am
ONE MORE TIME!!!! We would have won at least games last yr with MG at the helm from day one.
HOW IN BLAZES do you have an “upgrade” at QB, OL, an actual OC and QB coach and not be better than 6 GAMES?????
If that is the case then we wasted the no. 1 pick.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:39 am
@Buc-A-New
More than 6 games is possible but remember the O-line is a work in progress, the QB is in his rookie year and we have to wait and see about the defense.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:47 am
Time for another Lovie confidence poll…..,much has happened since the last one.
I think the Glazers are “all-in” with Lovie….he gets through 2016 as long as the team doesn’t quit on him.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:53 am
If and this is a big IF the OL is an average OL by NFL standards then I think even Joe will be surprised at what Jameis is able to pull off as a rookie(9 or 10 wins). If the OL is what it was last year then the Bucs are probably looking at 5 or 6 wins).
May 26th, 2015 at 8:55 am
Assuage….good one!
May 26th, 2015 at 8:56 am
I agree TBBF. Lovie is not going anywhere at least till the end of 2016. The man has shown much restraint only drafting one defensive player in two drafts. He deserves to have his “defensive” draft. I would love to figure out a way to keep Koetter as long as possible though. In these times, Lovie has Winston’s back ( defending him ie responding to coach Bowden’s comments). In the future, Winston will return the favor and have Lovie’s back.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:59 am
Buc a new they have no starting caliber defensive ends or safeties on this team. That is a big problem. Offensive linemen typically don’t do very well in their rookie seasons either. If you’re expecting more than six wins you are going to be disappointed.
May 26th, 2015 at 9:44 am
The smartest thing lovie did was go 2-14. That gets you a rookie qb and if you go t least 5-11 you have improved and lovie will be back. No wonder he wasn’t trying to score before half to tie the game vs. the rams.
May 26th, 2015 at 10:03 am
No, none, *zero*, nada hot seat.
That’s what got the team in such a mess in the first place, and the Glazers know it.
I suspect we’ll see Lovie & Licht for a very long time.
May 26th, 2015 at 10:22 am
Buc-A-New Says
“HOW IN BLAZES do you have an “upgrade” at QB, OL, an actual OC and QB coach and not be better than 6 GAMES?????”
Here’s a question for you. Do the quarterback and 2 offensive linemen come into the NFL already developed?
Answer: No.
Winston will only be good this year if he’s not on his back. So the development of the offensive line is the gauge for him. And you cannot expect second rounders to be NFL ready instantly. That is very rare.
We still have EDS at center, who actually cost us games, and our vet tackle really isn’t so good. Combine that with the rookies time to develop, and you have a losing offense.
The best we can hope for is for them to START to gel around mid season, and then finish strong.
Expect the first few losses to be ugly. Then we’ll lose still, but won’t look as bad doing it.
The defense will carry the team through the first half of the season, but the injuries will start piling up there because all of the vets brought in pre-draft have injury issues. So everything will be on the offense in the second half of the season.
An offense that will still be developing. A first year offense. Led by a rookie, whose blocking is provided by 2 rookies, a horrible center, an unproven tackle and an aging guard.
The offense will get fast as the year goes on because that’s what Dirk does, but it will take time to come together.
It WILL be a losing season. Possible 5-6 wins.
To do better, those two OL rookies have to not only be gold, but also be very faster learners. The odds of both being that way are low. One will likely take longer to develop.
Next year, expect EDS out and Marpet playing center…where he is better.
May 26th, 2015 at 10:25 am
Lovie inherited a disaster. It’s going to take YEARS to rebuild this ship!!
May 26th, 2015 at 10:29 am
Just finished watching a film review of Jameis where the critic gave him rave reviews for looking off safeties, throwing accurately in tight windows and throwing receivers open.
Unlike some of the morons who post out here, the Glazers aren’t stupid. They knew the last dozen years of drafts have been horrible which is why Licht was brought in and why they revamped the scouting department.
Horrible drafts, personnel moves (Michael Bennett) and FA acquisitions under Dominick and Allen left the cupboard bare when Lovie got here.
Although e and Licht whiffed last year, hen the players were signed even the critics thought they were good acquisitions. They just got the wrong contacts that made them lazy.
But unlike past regimes,{Bowers, Aerilious Benn, Myron Lewis} they admitted they made a mistake, got rid of it and moved on.
Hard to judge sometimes what’s in a players heart.
May 26th, 2015 at 10:32 am
I can understand the hot seat but I don’t think after one bad (really bad ) season even going 6-10 should cause an uprising … the panthers in trusted there coach who had bad season with Cam so why not give it time let the coach set a direction and see if it leads us to victory let’s remember he got fired from Chicago from a WINNING season yes he didn’t make the playoffs but in most cases 10-6 is a good season
May 26th, 2015 at 10:49 am
I am a huge Winston fan but even I know that the quarterback position is the main piece but only a piece of the puzzle. dude’s job isn’t in jeopardy, that’s media and fan talk seriously more media than fan, unless your winning superbowls which is why dungy got fired and why gruden got fired and they were winning head coaches, media and fans are always calling for the coaches head, it’s too early for the stupid hot seat talk. hot seat doesn’t mean fired just ask bengals head coach
May 26th, 2015 at 10:55 am
6 wins or less combined with the d looking bad is a bad recipe for Loser Lovie. 3 wins and he’s gone, but I expect Lovie to get at least 3 years to show why he shouldn’t have gotten this job to begin with
May 26th, 2015 at 10:56 am
I hate that “triple your win total” stat that Joe keeps bouncing around. 6 wins??? So if the Bucs somehow managed to ONE game last year Joe would be okay with 3 wins? OR FOUR? HECK, that’s QUADRUPLING YOUR WIN TOTAL!!!! That’s pretty much a Super Bowl Win!!!
C’mon… this isn’t the FCATs. Raise your bar and have some EXPECTATIONS of your team and hold them responsible to putting a legitimate product on the field.
May 26th, 2015 at 11:10 am
drdneast Says
Just finished watching a film review of Jameis where the critic gave him rave reviews for looking off safeties…
Yeah, I saw that video. And it was complete bull. If you actually look at Jameis on those plays, he was staring right at his WRs. EVERY TIME.
It’s actually a weakness Jameis has admitted to and he needs to work on. No QB is perfect coming into the NFL though, so I think he can overcome it.
May 26th, 2015 at 11:14 am
@BucTrooper
I think you are letter emotions block your common sense. Two rookie OL guys, a horrible center, and a QB who has to adapt to the NFL (which is fast, and Jameis is not “fast”).
Tack on the defensive players signed before the draft…all of them injury prone.
Six wins or even five wins is good enough, provided they don’t look bad losing the games in the second half of the season and they finish strong.
I suspect we’ll be dueling a division rival in the last game of the season…one that will play hard to get into the playoffs.
May 26th, 2015 at 12:26 pm
Uh Bonzai is your concern really that the defensive players they brought in are injury prone? What about they fact that they’re back up and practice squad level players? We have guys that will be starting at two defensive end spots and two safety spots that wouldn’t be starting for any other team in the NFL. Their lack of talent rather than their injuries is what scares me.
May 26th, 2015 at 12:41 pm
One love said “Lovie inherited a disaster. It’s going to take YEARS to rebuild this ship!!”
Actually he inherited a 4 win team and turned it into a 2 win team. He wins 6 next year and people want to congratulate him? He also presided over one of the most lopsided beat downs in NFL history, this vs a team that had a losing record AND fired their coach. The 2014 Bucs were poorly coached.
Damn right he is on the hot seat.
May 26th, 2015 at 12:44 pm
Of all of the defensive players signed, only Carter is almost guaranteed a spot on this defense. He has taken few, if any snaps at mike but his speed gives him a chance. Lets hope he can play with instinct and not freeze after five yards like every other mike last year. If he can do that and stay healthy we will have a lot of speed at linebacker.
Sterling Moore is likely to be penciled in as our nickel. Great. Leonard Johnson, my friend, was just not very good last year. Sterling Moore should be an upgrade and might even threaten Verner and Banks, so all three should play with some juice from day one, which I like.
Chris Conte isnt great. Some even say he sucks. Well, Mcdougald will probably be starting at strong so that means Conte, Swearinger. Will have to battle incumbent Major Wright. I hope Swearinger comes out on top. That would mean he beat two vets that know Lovies system. Thats some stiff competition. Some one will have to fight hard to start on opening day and we should get some respectable depth out of it.
Defensive tackle is our deepest posistion on the whole team. And they have to be the best unit to make up for our ends, all unproven. So we got Henry Melton, likely a third and long tackle to get after the quarterback. Now he does have injury problems, but he will benefit from not being out there every down.
So after a season long curve Lovie added some depth and some pre season competition. No excuses for this defense to suck this year. I dont think we sucked last year either. Look at week one. Carolina wasnt better than us. Hell no. But we played sluggish all pre season and while its just pre season, it carried over to week one and we didnt wake up until week 4. No way in Hell are the Falcon 56 points more talented than us. But when you dont show up, Matt Ryan will pick you apart. I wana see guys flying around hitting people all August. If we’re ready, no way will the Titans beat us. No excuse to loose to that team. We have enough talent, we just need to focus.
That said, if Lovie cant get more out of this team. If he cant even get six wins, he dosent deserve to coach here. I think he will exceed six wins, but there is no excuse not too.
May 26th, 2015 at 1:36 pm
The winner wins a minimum of 9 games dispite lovie smith and his 1970s defense.
May 26th, 2015 at 2:48 pm
Schiano won more games because he actually had better players but he got rid of them and the downfall begins.Talib,Winslow,Pearson,Bennett,Miller,Freeman,Blount and then he trade a 1st and a 4th for a corner coming off knee surgery,then paid him 16 million a year. Let Licht and Lovie rebuild this team through the draft, it will take at least 3 years for them to show any sign of major improvement.We can’t continue to change regimes every 2-3 years,we need for this regime to have 5 years.They know what they are doing just give them time,Rome wasn’t built overnight.
May 26th, 2015 at 3:45 pm
IT IS FOX,THE NETWORK THAT WILL SEE ABOUT ANYTHING TO GET YOU TO TALK ABOUT IT
May 26th, 2015 at 5:59 pm
america’s quarterback is tom brady! jaboowins is our qb.
May 26th, 2015 at 7:41 pm
Well BucannerBonzai they showed two times where he did it but does he need to improve, probably so. But he knows how to do it, already.
Just watched the Browns raving about McClown in practice. Well wait till the bullets start flying. if McClown gets any pressure in his face he will resemble the same high school QB that he did last year.
Great athlete, terrible QB.
Also saw a reviewer critique Glennon in a game against the Rams in his first year where he absolutely couldn’t throw a receiver over open and had several opportunities to do so.
May 26th, 2015 at 8:56 pm
Bad high school quarterback.
May 27th, 2015 at 2:36 am
Lovie should be given his 5 years. This team needs to be rebuilt. Lovie is the man for the job. Let him do his job.
May 31st, 2015 at 9:14 am
Outside of one fluke year the Bucs have been in a downward tailspin since Monty Kiffin leaked that he was leaving. I did not expect the Bucs to win more than 4 games last year, and do not expect them to win more than five next year. That said, if the Glazers stay the course we have a great chance of getting into the playoffs in the next 2-3 years.