The Perils Of The Draft
April 29th, 2015
Joe was amused by a recent article that tried to paint the picture of the perils of drafting quarterbacks in the first round.
Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times accurately documented how quarterbacks drafted in the first round are 50/50 bets. That’s very true.
In fact, as former Super Bowl-winning general manager Bill Polian detailed recently on SiriusXM NFL Radio, the entire first round, regardless of position, is a 50/50 ordeal. In the best of years, Polian pointed out, a good first round wouldn’t quite make it to 60 percent success. And that’s grading generously.
So there’s no need to hyperventilate over quarterbacks when, say, offensive tackles are equally bust-prone.
Andrew Astleford of Fox Sports Florida decided to look at the past five years of Bucs drafts, and there is plenty of blame to go around.
The following is Joe’s favorite.
2012: S Mark Barron, seventh overall (D) — “Disappointing” isn’t too strong a word to characterize his Bucs career. He never did grow into the large, physical safety that Tampa Bay envisioned when he was taken early in the 2012 draft. In seven games with the Bucs last season, he didn’t prove to be an effective fit within coach Lovie Smith’s defensive scheme. He totaled just three interceptions and 19 passes defensed with Tampa Bay in parts of three seasons before he was traded to the St. Louis Rams last October for a fourth-round and a sixth-round pick.
Just this week, the Rams announced they would not pick up Barron’s fifth-year option. Imagine that?
Now Joe doesn’t buy into the cries of “the Bucs could have had Luke Kuechly.” While that may be true, that would have meant the Bucs passing on Lavonte David.
Looking back, it sure seemed like the 2012 draft was dynamite for the Bucs. Especially when the Bucs made an early run at the playoffs that season. Since Thanksgiving 2012, the team sure has gone to hell.
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April 29th, 2015 at 11:32 am
The Bucs better trade Glennon before everyone finds out just how good he can be with a real OC & QB coach.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:40 am
The Bucs have won only 30 of their past 100 games, that is pathetic. Safe to say they must have the worst winning percentage in their history of all NFL teams. Have to call Buc fans gluttons for punishment, now that’s some real diehard fans. It’s great to be a Bucs fan. Go Bucs!
April 29th, 2015 at 11:43 am
@mallory Yeah, trade glennon for a fourht so we can draft another amad black or luke stocker. We need a back up qb and Glennon is serviceable at worst and cheap. You need a good back up, and guys like Chad Henne are more expensive and no better.
To turn this around we have to start hitting on premium picks.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:47 am
LMFAO! ODB shook the dreads off of him!
April 29th, 2015 at 11:51 am
How can Gerald McCoy not get an A grade?
April 29th, 2015 at 11:52 am
Now Joe doesn’t buy into the cries of “the Bucs could have had Luke Kuechly.”
Ironically, the Buccaneers have the opportunity to correct that mistake by drafting Eric Kendricks in the second round.
They would be fools to pass on him if he’s still there.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:54 am
@theodore
I would give him a B grade. He’s the best player on the team, but he still has room to improve.
April 29th, 2015 at 11:55 am
The biggest draft peril for the Bucs would be to spend the #1 pick in the draft on the most Risky, Overrated and Polarizing player in the draft(Winston)and eventually end up with nothing for it
If the Glazers decide to take a huge gamble and chance and draft Winston, and it explodes in their faces, they will have nobody to blames but themselves as the red flags and warnings were all there to see
April 29th, 2015 at 11:56 am
miken Says: I was implying that he will probably play better than and show up L&L’s wasted 1st pick.
April 29th, 2015 at 12:01 pm
LOL
April 29th, 2015 at 12:02 pm
@theodore i think because he has missed most of the 1st 2 years. Also, those old rookie contract were ridiculously high. He is great, but not quite to sapp level.
@mallory gotcha
April 29th, 2015 at 12:13 pm
Joe thinks that dominik was a top 5 GM
LOL!
April 29th, 2015 at 12:15 pm
Out of all the Mark Dominik’s horrible mistakes I will always consider drafting Mark Baron over Luke Kuechly as one of his all time stupid idiodic moronic decisive of all time…
So glad he is gone forever!!!
April 29th, 2015 at 12:16 pm
Another Dominik bust.
Can anyone tell me why that bozo is on ESPN giving “expert” analysis?
Just another reason to never watch that network unless its broadcasting a game.
April 29th, 2015 at 12:27 pm
I will never forget when Barron was drafted. The look on his face was absolutely priceless. It was like mankins last year giving his first bucs presser.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:11 pm
Mallory Says:
April 29th, 2015 at 11:32 am
The Bucs better trade Glennon before everyone finds out just how good he can be with a real OC & QB coach.
—————————–
Glennon’s gf?
April 29th, 2015 at 1:17 pm
I wouldn’t mind Matt Baker all that much, he’s had it in for Jameis since the Kinsman allegation broke. I may have my reservations about Jameis and his character, but this guy has been hell bent on keeping him out of Tampa since the jump.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:19 pm
As usual, we’re going to ignore the FACT that Schiano NEEDED a great safety for his defensive scheme to work. Its been stated time and time again. His prized Safety was supposed to be good enough to match up with the great TE’s in the league, specifically our division, without having to bring in an extra CB.
THAT is why Barron was drafted. Safety was key in Schiano’s scheme. That is what we were led to believe.
But yet, he’s at least working, unlike the Schiano the Great, that everyone on here thought was so wonderful and a master talent evaluator.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:20 pm
@Joe,
What did I do to warrant me going to the penalty for all of my posts?
April 29th, 2015 at 1:28 pm
@Celly, thanks for speaking the truth that may ruffle the feathers at One Buc. Its all good, your post came through 🙂
Joe is running a tight ship here at times…..especially now.
When anything I post goes through the mod filter, I just leave it alone. It passes or it doesnt….not important to me enough to waste frustration on.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:33 pm
Folks can drool over LBs and CBs and Safeties all they want, but if the Bucs don’t focus on fixing their OLine we’ll be staring at another 2-14 season.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:37 pm
Lol, the video finally came through for me……#13 shook him after his already over commitment….a high school kid couldve done that with the weight Barron was coming in with….good thing he’s on a different roster now.
April 29th, 2015 at 1:49 pm
You’re right dick2111, but remember to consider the factors of last years losses. Many games were close, the other blowouts were against big passing offenses (one who was ATL btw) because they knew their weapons were bigger than what we could defend against. Yes we need trenches, especially at OT and G, AND at DE, but please dont fool yourself into counting out SS. Hopefully the draft or other “wires” can fix that situation.
A SAFETY is needed almost as bad as a QB right now because of the dead weight we just cut at that position!!
April 29th, 2015 at 1:53 pm
Joe(s) – YOU ARE WRONG !! Picking Kuechly instead of Barron would NOT have any affect on drafting Lavonte David !!! You CONTINUE to be IGNORANT of the value of LINEBACKERS !! Luke Kuechly is a MIDDLE linebacker…. while Lavonte David is the Bucs WEAKSIDE linebacker ! yes. Joe(s), as IGNORANT (not dumb, just no clue) as you seem to be about linebackers, THERE IS DIFFERENCE between an MLB and an outside linebacker….. REALLY !! espeecially in the Tampa-2. Now, I LOVE the Lavonte selection, and as a Bucs linebacker…. but, seriously Joe(s), you need to “wise up” about linebackers because all you do is show your ignorance !! THEY ARE NOT INTERCHANGEABLE or “plug and play” as you obviously think ! You seem to be buying into Carter as MLB this year, and being a Buc fan, I hope you are right!! BUT…. that’s a BIG BUT … I ambugious.. HE has NEVERE played MLB !!! and while I hope I am wrong…. he’s got the speed… I remain HIGHLY DOUBTFUL !! Mason Foster cost the Bucs 7-10 points a game with his “down the middle” pass coverage last year… can’t prove it … but between field position, first downs, and scores…. I am sure that is close !! C’mon Joe(s) quit being so FR—-G IGNORANT about linebackers !!!
April 29th, 2015 at 1:59 pm
Yeah barron is not good enough, but L&L say Michael Johnson, josh mccown, Anthony Collins are. Oh and Revis is bad too. So is penn etc, etc, etc. don’t write off the leader DS sacker in the NFL last year
April 29th, 2015 at 3:27 pm
Why do you say we would have passed on David when in previous drafts we double dipped, unsuccessfully I might add, at other positions. Wr dt de.
April 29th, 2015 at 8:14 pm
there is no surety we would have drafted 2 linebacker, even different position linebackers, sillysam. heck, with our pick different, so would other teams, and david probably would not have been available. but keep insulting your hosts because you thin your revisionist history is better than joes’. smh