The 20th-Of-A-Second Fear
April 28th, 2015
Joe wants to take a sledgehammer to the stat nerds crowd sometimes.
These people insist on dissecting football to the point of lunacy. What next? Measuring testicle density of tight ends to determine their red zone potential on high back shoulder throws?
Former Gators and Bengals wide receiver Cris Collinsworth, of NBC Sports, is the true king of the stat nerds. The man coughed up cash and became the majority owner of ProFootballFocus.com, the outfit that has anonymous game graders breaking down film and pretending it’s all gospel coveted by NFL general managers.
Collinsworth joined PFT Live to dive deep into the NFL Draft with host Mike Florio yesterday.
There’s a ton of good perspective in the video below, but part of it is a steaming pile of garbage, such Collinsworth worry about Jameis Winston’s “slow” delivery of the football. Collinsworth claims a legendary release would be defined by Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo at nearly three-tenths of a second. Good, per Collinsworth, is .35 seconds, but Winston comes in closer to .4 seconds in his game film. However, Collinsworth concedes that Winston appears to have sped up his delivery, based on the way he looked during workouts.
Joe really bangs his head against the wall when he hears and reads such silliness.
Keep in mind that seconds earlier, Collinsworth talked about how Winston “is dedicated to the pocket” like a successful NFL QB must be, and he looks like a more athletic Ben Roethlisberger with a strong enough arm to be a true pocket passer. And, Collinsworth says Winston is a better pick than Marcus Mariota.
Oh, well. Enjoy the video. It really is worth watching.
April 28th, 2015 at 9:31 am
Shane Ray round 3!! Thanks L&L
April 28th, 2015 at 9:35 am
off topic, but it looks like DE Shane Ray may plummet down some draft boards due to a marijuana arrest and a toe injury requiring surgery. If he slips to the 3rd round I wonder if we would consider him? Not sure how his game would translate to what the Bucs do?
April 28th, 2015 at 9:36 am
profootball talk’s website is saying shane ray round 4 or later.
wow! that is even lower than mark Dominik saying round 2 or 3.
April 28th, 2015 at 9:38 am
I may be wrong but isn’t Shane Ray more of a 3-4 guy?
April 28th, 2015 at 9:40 am
Mind blown…
April 28th, 2015 at 9:41 am
Shane Ray should go undrafted for being such a moron getting popped this close to the draft. And this was while he was already in a fall. Stay away from such an idiot.
April 28th, 2015 at 9:43 am
I have accepted the fact jameis will be a buc QB. I don’t agree with the decision as I have stated many times previously. but, I will support him if the bucs draft him on Thursday.
April 28th, 2015 at 9:54 am
I really hope, but don’t expect, Bucs trade #1 for lots of picks.
If they take a QB, then all draft picks should be Olinemen.
April 28th, 2015 at 9:54 am
Funny how worthless stats become when absolutely no stats support your position.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:00 am
Ahh…the first of the many sycophantic JW articles Joe will post today! I’ll miss these when the draft is over. If Winston doesn’t end up in Tampa, we will have to put Joe on suicide watch!
April 28th, 2015 at 10:01 am
I guess no stats can compare to Joe’s ole eye test. LMAO
April 28th, 2015 at 10:02 am
JW has more talent, no doubt. huge gamble though.
would be an easy decision to trade the pick……….
lovie and licht ooze stupidity though, so we know the pick will be JW.
I doubt he’ll last long though as a starter, whether it be because of interceptions, off the field, goddell suspensions, team turning on him for being an immature egomaniac or injury due to slowness.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:06 am
slow delivery = INTS …in the N F L…
April 28th, 2015 at 10:07 am
Welcome to Tampa Jameis
April 28th, 2015 at 10:10 am
I think the BUCS (L&L) have made a basic business mistake and lost serious negotiating positions. I am watching all the interest in the Titans #2 pick by those interested in drafting Mariota and the BUCS are clearly out of consideration, due to the decision of giving the NFL the clear indication they will draft Winston. If they are interested in trading down they should have taken the position that Winston and Mariota were under consideration and their position would be stronger with the #1 pick to trade down. POOR BUSINESS DECISION EQUALS POOR LEADERSHIP>
April 28th, 2015 at 10:13 am
Why would Lovie risk his career (as in last shot at head coach) on such a gamble? I don’t get it. But I also don’t profess to know who we will pick.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:14 am
@Bill Byrne
…agreed! …sucks big time if Titans make a big deal…Bucs need a Herschel Walker deal!
April 28th, 2015 at 10:15 am
Trade down for who Billy? Sometimes you have to take the player you want. If he doesn’t work out then you try again. It’s just like playing the lottery, you can’t win if you don’t play. Move on..
April 28th, 2015 at 10:16 am
Bill that is an excellent point. It’s as bad as “josh mccowns our starter” on day 1 of camp. no room for guessing or leverage
April 28th, 2015 at 10:20 am
@R.O.
…trade down for bonafide Left Tackle and another first rounder(RE or WR/PR)…Grayson in 2nd for QB and more day 2 picks 🙂
April 28th, 2015 at 10:20 am
preach on bill.
morons running the asylum.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:24 am
Not sure why they would need to play coy when they know who they want and like who they’re getting. You guys seem to be holding on to this weird hope that they would consider something short of a team giving up their entire draft to move up to #1 to get Winston. That’s not going to happen so what’s the point in pretending like you’re not picking who you’re going to pick. Did it do Houston any good to keep everyone in suspense last year? No.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:25 am
I have a question how do you evaluate a QB If you don’t use stats at all..
I understand game film but you put no weight in stats?
How about character.
There are more factors in picking an NFL player than just HE won a bunch of games in college.
Heck Winston has already had to work on his release. He will have a lot of work to make it in the pros as all college players do..
Will he work hard?
But to say stats mean nothing is absolutely ignorant.
You can be a Winston Fan and believe he is the best choice.. which he maybe
But don’t say dumb stuff to deflect what looks bad on him…
All of the Draft picks have questions on their ability to make it in the NFL..
April 28th, 2015 at 10:27 am
Oh and if by chance D. Brooks reads any of this PLEASE teach this kid not to act like CAM NEWTON … He’s an idiot.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:28 am
He was a pitcher. Seems like nobody is factoring that in. He stopped playing baseball and focused on his mechanics and he’s already getting better, just that quickly. How is anyone not onboard at this point unless you’ve just got an ax to grind.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:31 am
While I am a huge proponent of drafting Jameis, i do agree with Bill that they should not have tipped their hand in order to drive the best possible offers. There is zero reason to make it known who they intend to draft and to not wait until the last possible minute to reveal your pick.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:35 am
Patrick in VA: the point is you never know.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:35 am
The price of success is hard work, dedication to the task at hand and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand. – Vince Lombardi
April 28th, 2015 at 10:37 am
@bill trade down for what?? what is your genius plan?? the bucs need a quarteback period. lets stop all this crap about trading down unless you want to keep being the worst team in the nfc south, the bucs are in a division where they need a great quarterback because you are going against three of the best qb’s in the nfc with brees, ryan, and newton. weather is winston or mariota im fine with that as far as what the titans are doing i could care less because they will probably end up trading for rivers who is on the downslide of his career, lets stop all the BS bucs fans and get with the program, in order for you to be an elite team in this league you have too have a great quarterback and if im wrong check who are the teams that are elite right now and see if you can prove me wrong
April 28th, 2015 at 10:37 am
@JBuc – I disagree that letting it be known that you want the guy that’s available to you there affects the trade offers you get. What it says is that if you’re going to get the pick from us you better come correct. Don’t call me with garbage offers that are a waste of my time because we are perfectly content to just take the pick and will be happy with the player we get.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:39 am
You can’t win without a qb therefore trading down was off the table once they realized they had garbage qbs on the roster last year midway thru season.
April 28th, 2015 at 10:52 am
I would take Shane Ray in the 3rd rd in a heart beat. Nothing to loose there, and what an upside!
April 28th, 2015 at 11:04 am
@Bill,
There’s no need to build up MM’s value if the Buc’s knew they were picking JW. Any bidder would be competing with the real value of JW and not the fake value of MM.
The Bucs have not been working rival teams, but rather preparing their own fan base.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:09 am
Football outsiders has a track record evaluating quarterba c KS unlike Joe. They rate Mariota head and shoulders over Winston and make Winston not even the second best quarterback in the draft. Winston is given a 62 per cent chance of busting and a 3% chance of being an elite quarterback. So sad to be a huge Buccaneer’s fan and recognize they are about to make a colossal mistake.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:12 am
Bucs pick Winston this team is doomed for years to come
April 28th, 2015 at 11:14 am
Somewhere, Byron Leftwich is smiling
April 28th, 2015 at 11:20 am
@ Bill
The Bucs “preparing” their fans for the drafting of Winston by force feeding fans daily doses of him is appearently not working as according to REAL fan polls Bucs fans still prefer Mariota by a wide margin. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time
April 28th, 2015 at 11:26 am
Collinsworth is 100 percent right.
Come one, Winstonites, from the very beginning I’ve been telling you Winston’s release is agonizingly slow. I would provide a link to it if Joe had not changed the naming policy of articles and broke all our links recently.
(A change that is a bit inconvenient, but one I like. Plus, I’ve felt for years that Joe should do it. The new one helps with search engine placement)
One of the things I said in my evaluation of both was that Mariota has a very quick release, one that is becoming very common in the NFL, and one that Dirk required in Matt Ryan. I also said his lack of pocket presence and run first labels were myths.
Winston has that long windup, which he is working on repairing, but it is still very slow. As I said in my evaluations, NFL defenses will take advantage of that in the pass rush, among other things.
Marcus Mariota is the better quarterback in this draft, but Winston will still be picked number one unfortunately.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:27 am
buddha
I saw that article. They used their stats to show that Winston should be a Bust and Mariota would be Elite. I think they are accurate.
DRAFT MARIOTA
April 28th, 2015 at 11:31 am
SUPERMARIO!!!SUPERMARIO!!!SUPERMARIO!!!
April 28th, 2015 at 11:37 am
Jameis Winston = Byron Leftwich + Ryan Leaf + Jamarcus Russell + Narcissus
April 28th, 2015 at 11:41 am
@ Nuckinfutz
I’m sure the Glazers would rather hear chants of “Super Mario, Super Mario” at Ray Jay rather than “No Means No, No Means No”
Do not draft the Crablegs Rapist
April 28th, 2015 at 11:56 am
“Bucs#1 Says:
April 28th, 2015 at 11:41 am
@ Nuckinfutz
I’m sure the Glazers would rather hear chants of “Super Mario, Super Mario” at Ray Jay rather than “No Means No, No Means No”
Do not draft the Crablegs Rapist”
Your prose is familiar. It’s funny how often the people who oppose Winston create multiple user names.
It’s not going to change who OBP drafts on Thursday. There will be Bucs fans rooting for the Bucs and Winston come fall. Whether y’all you cut bait, or get on the bus is up to each of you. But, it changes nothing.
April 28th, 2015 at 12:02 pm
What have the Bucs officially done that tips their hand they want Winston over Mariota? I realize almost every media outlet says “the Bucs seem focused on Winston”, but if you actually look at things they gave equal time to both QB’s (save more background checks on Winston), the team says they’re comfortable with either player, and their are obviously fans of both QB’s within the fanbase (and perhaps a split in the people making the decision?). It seems like a classic rumor mill thing that gains legs as people run with it. Pick Winston, Mariota, trade back, Leonard Williams, or Fowler…just win some damn games.
April 28th, 2015 at 12:02 pm
Tell state geeks to explain Eli Manning’s 2 super bowl rings
April 28th, 2015 at 12:30 pm
Raheem Morris once said “Stats are for losers”, then he failed miserably and was fired
April 28th, 2015 at 12:31 pm
@Joe:
I’m guilty as charged. I’m definitely a “stat geek”, especially when it comes to QB play. As posted previously by me, TDs help to win games, and INTs help to lose them. Clearly, even some of those throws are more important than others, and I’ll admit that some TDs are completed in “garbage time” when the outcome is not in doubt, just as some INTs can occur on a long pass at the end of a half, and mean little to the final tally. Nevertheless, in general, the number of TDs and the number of INTs generally define QB performance quite well. All of the other stuff admittedly, not so much. We shall see how Jameis does with his ratio of TDs to INTs, but as for me, I’m not sold yet.
tickrdr
April 28th, 2015 at 12:37 pm
If the Bucs do have a brain freeze and do draft Winston and he’s a bust as expected, I can’t wait to hear all of the excuses and reasons that his man-crushers, enablers and apologists come up with. It should be quite comical
April 28th, 2015 at 12:38 pm
Go Bucs!
Go Jameis!
April 28th, 2015 at 12:43 pm
If the Glazers didn’t have a substantial fear, they would have already engaged Cornwell in contract negotiations. But they do….on multiple fronts. And they should.
April 28th, 2015 at 1:04 pm
“Mariota Joe Says:
April 28th, 2015 at 12:43 pm
If the Glazers didn’t have a substantial fear, they would have already engaged Cornwell in contract negotiations”
1. Pure speculation on your part.
2. Cornwell is not his agent.
3. For all we know, negotiations with his agent might be happening.
4. Thursday night, Jameis will be a Buc, let me know what Bucs gear you have for sale.
April 28th, 2015 at 1:17 pm
Stats mean nothing , mabey how many more touchdowns a player has than the other , how much better of a passer rating one has than the other. how many less intereptions one has than the other, how many more rushing touchdwns one has than the other ,stats meaning if your balls deep for the lesser player. yea they would mean nothing ?
April 28th, 2015 at 1:32 pm
Tom Says:
April 28th, 2015 at 12:02 pm
Tell state geeks to explain Eli Manning’s 2 super bowl rings
**************************
Easy, defense. You’re welcome.
April 28th, 2015 at 1:34 pm
Joe you are starting to act like any criticism of JW is unwarranted and just picking on him. You defend every possible negative thing levied against him. It’s getting sad.
Can’t you support someone but be objectively critical?
I support JW and think he will be out pick, but stop acting like he is this perfect human with no flaws in his game. He actually has many, just like every other QB. And delivery time is incredibly important in the NFL. All the top QBs have a very quick release.
April 28th, 2015 at 1:38 pm
“I’ve seen too many interceptions,” a scout said. “He’s your drop-back guy, but he’s got that long release. It kind of reminds me of the guy who used to play for Marshall (Byron Leftwich).” “Jameis has gotten too big,” said a third scout. “In high school (Bessemer, Ala.) he was a quick-twitch athlete. Now he’s kind of sluggish.” Posted dismal workout numbers at the combine. “I had no idea he’d run that poorly,” a fourth scout said. “Quarterbacks without leg explosiveness have a terrible history. I don’t like his off-field and I don’t like the way he conducts himself on the field sometimes.”
April 28th, 2015 at 1:41 pm
Bob McGinn surveyed the NFL.
“With Jameis Winston I see JaMarcus Russell,” a longtime executive in personnel said. “They do dumb things. Isn’t it interesting?”
Jimbo Fisher, the Seminoles’ head coach during Winston’s three-year career, was quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator throughout Russell’s four-year career at Louisiana State.
In 22 years of major-college coaching, Fisher’s best pro quarterback probably has been former Packers career backup Matt Flynn.
Besides Russell, Fisher prepared Rohan Davey for New England (fourth round) in 2002, Christian Ponder for Minnesota (first round) in 2011 and E.J. Manuel for Buffalo (second round) in 2013. They’re failures, too.
Aside from coaching parallels, Winston (6 foot 4, 231 pounds) and Russell (6-5½, 258) share the same type of big, soft bodies and, according to some scouts, the penchant for turning the ball over.
“Lack of focus by JaMarcus is what I see in Winston,” the personnel man said. “They’re physically talented, but during the course of a game they kind of lose their focus and just put the ball up for grabs.
“I see the body. I see the lack of focus. I see the same coach and system. Only Winston’s not as good an athlete and his arm isn’t as strong as JaMarcus’.”
Russell was done with football after three seasons, a 7-18 record and a passer rating of 65.2.
“We’re looking at another guy (Winston) that’s a product of the system and has tremendous athletes around him,” another personnel man said. “Oh, my goodness.
“Is this guy really going to be the first pick of the draft? You’d be drafting a quarterback that can’t run, has off-field problems, has no power in his legs and makes bad decisions on the field.
“Somebody’s going to make a horrible mistake.”
April 28th, 2015 at 1:42 pm
“People were saying, ‘Oh, he’s a leader,'” said one personnel director. “But it was more of a, ‘Hey-look-at-me-kind-of-thing,’ as opposed to something good for his teammates.
“I just don’t like his whole makeup, his whole salesman act. He’s all about himself.”
Another scout brought it back to Russell, saying, “He’s got that same smile that JaMarcus had. They light the room up. That’s what Jameis seems to be doing.”
April 28th, 2015 at 1:46 pm
[Not trying to be a knob, but Joe can get in legal trouble for someone pasting an entire article on the site. You can post a graph or two or are welcome to include a link. — Joe]
April 28th, 2015 at 1:51 pm
@LWD
“A lot of it is going to depend on where they end up, who’s coaching them and who is playing around them.”
________________________
Always true. Lovie worries me.
April 28th, 2015 at 1:55 pm
@Joe.
Understood.
April 28th, 2015 at 2:43 pm
To Love and Warrick Dunn Says:
April 28th, 2015 at 1:04 pm
1. Pure speculation on your part.
2. Cornwell is not his agent.
3. For all we know, negotiations with his agent might be happening.
4. Thursday night, Jameis will be a Buc, let me know what Bucs gear you have for sale.
Uhhh…and your prognostications are NOT speculation? Didn’t know you were actually Joel Glazer.
Cornwell is his defense “agent”….because he needs one. His choice, not mine.
For all we know……one thing is absolutely certain….we DO know there have been zero negotiations. It’s even been discussed right here by JBF…and why?? Because they’re petrified that the jerk will do something else stupid before Thursday. Which, if you think even for one second…that means they’d be even MORE petrified that he’ll do something stupid AFTER Thursday.
And if they draft Infamous, The Great Divider of Bucs’ Fans, it will all be available….cheap.
GLAZERS…PLEASE DRAFT MARIOTA so we can ALL get behind the team!!!
April 28th, 2015 at 3:12 pm
@Mariota Joe
Make sure to leave a link for your gear if you are selling it online. Good luck!
April 28th, 2015 at 6:30 pm
qbase
April 28th, 2015 at 9:26 pm
This is the trashiest blog I’ve ever seen on this site and that’s saying something. Wow.