Premature Thoughts On 2015 Sked
April 22nd, 2015
Pardon Joe if he wandered mentally a bit as he studied the Bucs’ schedule for 2015, eh?
First, the concept of strength of schedule before a game is played is nearly as idiotic as the stupidest of stupid convoluted, made-up baseball stats, this nonsense “WAR.” It is said to be an acronym for “wins over replacement,” whatever that means. It’s sheer lunacy that some pocket-protector-wearing clown can say a player is better/worse than his replacement — without even knowing who the replacement is!
That’s not just a mental and illogical leap of faith; that’s jumping off a damn bridge!
So Joe does not imbibe on the apparent strength of schedule. That’s all based on last year’s teams, not this fall’s teams. However, that is all we have to play with until the season kicks off.
* Of the first eight opponents, only one (Houston) had a winning record in 2014. Common sense tells you not all of the remaining seven will turn their fortunes in 2015.
* Two of the first six opponents were totally slop teams last year, Tennessee and Jacksonville. By the close of October, Bucs fans should have a decent idea how young Jameis Winston is faring in his NFL debut season, or if the Bucs will have any hope of a postseason run.
* Bucs have three road games after Thanksgiving. Two (Indianapolis, St. Louis) are in domes. So the Bucs will be spared harsh winter weather games, unless Charlotte encounters an early winter storm in the season finale, Jan. 3.
* The Bucs have three December home games, including two division games (Atlanta, New Orleans).
* Five of the final nine games are in the Den of Depression.
* The lone night contest is a Thursday Night Game at St. Louis, Dec. 17. This could be a historic evening, as it may be the final home game in the annals of the St. Louis Rams.
April 22nd, 2015 at 5:22 am
“Replacement” isn’t a person. It is the statistical average. It really isn’t that complicated.
April 22nd, 2015 at 5:59 am
We went down this road last year thinking that the first three games were wins as long as the team made it to the stadium. Turns out we were way overestjmating our team’s abilities aithout an OC. Here’s to hoping we enter week 1 with all of our pieces in place and we can actually perform at the level we should be.
April 22nd, 2015 at 6:00 am
Terry it’s a made up stat because all the other stats got boring.
I can’t wait to get to work so I can try to take off all the home games.
April 22nd, 2015 at 6:22 am
With the Bucs playing at home vs the Titans and the Jags prior to the bye week we have two must win games early on. Lovie needs to get the team up to snuff early during training camp and preseason unless he is planning to tank this year and get the prime OT in next year’s draft. Also the hometown fans deserve some wins at home.
April 22nd, 2015 at 6:24 am
The greatest variable of all is injuries…….
They throw the monkey wrench in any prediction….
April 22nd, 2015 at 6:53 am
can’t make the club in the tub and I don’t know if it’s just me but bucs seem to have lots of players they depend on constantly injured every year
April 22nd, 2015 at 8:15 am
I don’t know BucFanFamily… This schedule just seems like it’s gonna be a butt kicker…. Maybe that’s cuz we still have no identity, didn’t address the biggest concerns in FA and still have the nerve to be wishy washy on the #1 pick?!
We finally get NFC east teams on the sched and all I can think is the potential coworker abuse I’m gonna face if we can’t generate some wins or at least excitement…
L+L, it’s prove it time.
April 22nd, 2015 at 8:26 am
How do you not mention the possibility of Winston vs. Mariota in Week 1? Saving that for next Friday morning?
April 22nd, 2015 at 8:32 am
@buc4lyfe
We really do seem to catch that damned injury bug every year huh.
April 22nd, 2015 at 8:34 am
I learned long ago not to make any predictions. I would point out, however, that all of those teams are looking at the Buccaneers and marking that as a win for themselves. WE are the worse team in football, so any games for us are tough ones.
That’s the reality of the situation. Here’s another one…
…8 picks. 11 starter needs.
For those not paying attention, 11 needs is equal to literally half of our starters, 11 starters on the field at a time. It’s like we’ve just started as an expansion team, are filling holes with scrubs, and hoping to land enough quality in the draft to not loose all our games in the next year.
That’s another reality.
We’ll be lucky to win 5 games this year. Anything more is icing on the cake. And I’m not even considering the schedule in that prediction. I’m going by the number of needs the team has and their ability to fill them.
April 22nd, 2015 at 8:50 am
Buccaneer bonzai, how do you figure we need 11 starters? I understand needing depth, but depth is not starting. I believe we can honestly go with our current defensive line and be good. George is upgrade over The Ghost plus the interior has great depth now. AND JSmithhas more experience and time with Cullen! Definitely an upgrade to a statistically good line.
The o line I would say needs 2 starters, maybe 1 if Pamphile/Edwards showed enough improvement to the coaches. We could even get by with Glennon with an improved o line but I’ll say we need a QB starter too for argument’s sake. We have our MLB, at least for now, plus safety depth. So I think we need 3 starters, all of which could be obtained in the first 5 rounds with the huge offensive line draft class this year.
I think we’ll be fine and will not be pleased with anything below 0.500.
April 22nd, 2015 at 9:20 am
with the 0-line the bucs have I wouldn’t make any predictions on wins until after the draft and free agency ends. as the 0-line currently is I would say they will either get the #1,2 or 3 pick at the top of the 2016 draft.
April 22nd, 2015 at 9:30 am
JOE —
Remind Lou. never to look to you for statistical information or numerical analysis.
As for the schedule, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but is probably the best indicator. Quality persists. So does craptitude. Over a 100-year time horizon things may even out. (Assuming Belicheck goes away sometime this century). We are always looking for new faces, for up-and-comers. But who here can reasonably pick against Seattle, New England, Dallas, the Colts, Green Bay, Baltimore or Denver? Sure, one or two of those will fold the tent this year, but the odds that Jaguars Rule are remote.
Or, the race does not always go to the swift, but that is how to bet.
April 22nd, 2015 at 10:11 am
The Bucs haven’t fared well against Tennessee in the regular season, I can’t remember the Bucs ever beating them in the handful of games played. I think with Winston QB’ing, the Bucs will win that home opener.
April 22nd, 2015 at 10:35 am
The stretch that will hopefully measure progress is here
11/8 – Giants
11/15 – Eagles
11/22 – Cowboys
11/29 – Colts
Hopefully they start fast that by the time they get to these games there’s still (in theory) something left to play for. All of these teams have offenses that can explode and it will be a solid test of the defense over an extended stretch.
If they get wiped out and go 0-4 here, it could also be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and finish off any fan confidence that they’ve improved.
April 22nd, 2015 at 11:58 am
HarlemBuc:
“Maybe that’s cuz we still have no identity, didn’t address the biggest concerns in FA and still have the nerve to be wishy washy on the #1 pick?!”
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Really?! – “have the nerve to be wishy washy on the #1 pick?!” I didn’t know you we’re at OBP with L&L and have inside scoop that they can’t make a decision. Interesting. Please keep in mind that there is a thing called The Draft and then there is a thing called Free Agency – where we WILL be adding players to our roster. A little patience is a good quality in life. I understand all the frustration but did you really want L&L to bring in some free agent just to say they did? How about some pretty good offensive lineman being cut by other teams after they draft that player’s replacement? Imagine our team with Winston and several stud OL from the draft – and then adding some key pieces in FA? The season doesn’t start tomorrow. Oh, and Winston give us an immediate identity!
April 22nd, 2015 at 12:39 pm
You know Mariota will be starting for the Titans, how exactly?
April 22nd, 2015 at 3:27 pm
Are there other NFL teams on the schedule?
Then it’s a tough schedule for us.
April 24th, 2015 at 2:11 am
Crazy enough to think Bucs can be 8-0. Cowboys, Colts, Eagle and the NFC South not out of the realm of 13-3.