How Many Potential Picks Can Make The Team?
April 21st, 2015
The question in the headline is a good one for the personnel gurus and geniuses at One Buc Palace.
Bucs general manager Jason Licht actually revealed his answer this morning.
Speaking on WDAE-AM 620, Licht gave insight into how the Bucs approach their draft and put a number on how many potential Buccaneers are out there following rigorous scouting.
“We’re going to have not just the [draft] board set, but we’re going to have basically a ranking of one to however many players we think in this draft would make our team. It usually hovers around 100 players,” Licht said. “It can be less. In some years, in places I’ve been it’s been as little as 70. But we’ll have those players ranked No. 1 to whatever, how we would take them if we’re on the clock. So most of the decisions will have been made before the draft starts, and then the draft is the easy part.”
So there you have it, there are about 100 aspiring NFLers considered sure bets to make the Bucs roster.
This was a great illustration of just how little late draft picks are valued — Rounds 5 through 7.
April 21st, 2015 at 8:30 am
I bet you a 6th round punter and/or a return specialist could make this team this year, but a 4th round DT might not. Sometimes low value is the right fit at specific positions in the 53-man roster.
April 21st, 2015 at 8:31 am
he said the key word that made me want Winston over mariota…..PROJECT!!! you have to project what mariota will be more because of the offense, much easier to project what Winston can be than mariota so everyone thinking mariota will be this unstoppable force slow down, im not saying Winston will be some world beater but I can atleast see the starting quarterback talent more than I can see with whats on our roster
April 21st, 2015 at 8:31 am
Well, we’ve got 3 starting spots and at least as many backup spots open – and that’s just on the offensive line.
April 21st, 2015 at 8:32 am
just hope they don’t hand the job to guys like they did last year. competition?
there was no competition.
April 21st, 2015 at 8:33 am
bucs4lyfe, you should spread those 5 periods out. Maybe use one at the end of each sentence instead of all in a row?
April 21st, 2015 at 8:40 am
I hope at least 80 of them are O Lineman
April 21st, 2015 at 8:51 am
Again this is just obvious. Walter Football’s research showed that 54% of first rounders make it in the NFL and 50% of 2nd rounders. I didn’t see the research on 3rd rounders but it obviously drops pretty quickly.
If only half of the first rounders make it, and that includes players as highly touted as Fameis and Marcus you can imagine how few 5th rounders and later make it much less contribute.
This is why Bobby Beathard ALWAYS traded down anytime he got a decent offer. The odds make the move obvious. BTW Beathard had 7 teams in the SB in his 38 years, four of them winners!!! Not too shabby an achievement. He probably knew what he was talking about.
But hey whose worried. St. Fameis is GUARANTEED to get us to the SB. Don’t believe me just read the comments here.
April 21st, 2015 at 8:54 am
Seeing how guys off the street out perform past 1st rounders on the bucs, Other teams practice squad players make it on this team!!!
April 21st, 2015 at 8:56 am
the worse your team is, the more draft picks will make the cut. the bucs have been relying heavily on rookies since the day they got their 1st round privileges back after the gruden trade. lots of “impact rookies” points to lots of “mediocre veterans” on your existing roster
April 21st, 2015 at 8:57 am
@robert 9
What are you talking about? Evans was the only one who started from day 1 and i think history will be kind to that decision. ASJ was a rotational TE, when healthy. The same for Sims. The other 3 barely saw the field.
April 21st, 2015 at 9:11 am
QBASE projects Mariota to do better than Winston….QBASE predicts Winston will be a bust….http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/projections-show-split-paths-winston-mariota/story?id=30451406
April 21st, 2015 at 9:17 am
before Michael Johnson there was seattle and matt Flynn. there are trent richardsons drafted every year by every team. Miami you can say that jared odrick was no more productive than clayborne was. sims and asj cant start if they get injured, asj was clearly the talented tight end we had you could see it. only fans of bad teams cry about day one starters because you think everything has to have a quick fix…..we’ve been bad for a decade so you want it fixed in a year. building through the draft shows up years later unless you get lucky and hit on a Russell Wilson in the 3rd round. relax people we’ve been bad for a decade why is everyone so paranoid this year
April 21st, 2015 at 9:27 am
Key point, JOE, is that the Bucs’ 100 may be substantially different from other teams’. With our version of the T-2 defense, lighter d-ends and faster Mikes are required. Likewise, a zone blocking scheme would look for lighter, quicker and faster o-linemen than a power team. There still can be considerable value in late rounds so long as you are looking for something particular and out of style. Just look at how many free agents make the league — especially priority ones — not in percentage terms but in absolute numbers– especially in depth and special teams.
“This was a great illustration of how little late round draft picks are valued– Rounds 5-7.”
And why the trade/swap of a 5th for a 7th was so needless and infuriating.
April 21st, 2015 at 10:10 am
bucs4lyfe Says
“he said the key word that made me want Winston over mariota…..PROJECT!!!”
Well then your support is misguided, because EVERY draft pick is a project, including Winston.
April 21st, 2015 at 10:41 am
How is it a quick fix if we’ve been “building through the draft” since Raheem? It’s been 10 years. And with the lackluster decision making on draft day exhibited by lovie throughout his entire career, what’s to make you think we will hit it out the park this year. Every team has optimism right now. Even the jags are saying of they draft well and land 4 players they can make it over the hump. I believe that we are a few players away, but that’s also assuming that we max out everyone’s potential and hit the right players.
Can we trade some picks for ted Thompson?
April 21st, 2015 at 10:58 am
This does not include non-drafted players who the scouts missed and end up being studs. There are at least one player every year who everyone completely misses.
April 21st, 2015 at 1:22 pm
The Bucs, in recent years, have rarely cut a draft pick in their rookie year. I imagine that will be the case again this year. And there’s usually 1 or 2 undrafted free agents who make it as well.
April 21st, 2015 at 4:23 pm
The QBASE analysis claims FSU played the toughest defensive schedule in the country. I knew the Nole schedule was tougher than many here would suggest, but rating it as the toughest defensive schedule out there? I’m not sure I buy that, but at the very least we should probably stop claiming Winston played a creampuff ACC schedule.