Wrong Year To Trade Down
March 3rd, 2015
Don’t do it, Jason.
Joe knows that for a minority of Bucs fans, thoughts of drafting a quarterback in the first round make them want to whip out a crucifix as if a vampire just showed up in the room.
For reasons Joe just cannot figure out, this crowd is simply scared of a quarterback. Joe can only determine these same people have deep-rooted psychological issues. If they are scared of drafting a quarterback, then they also must be scared of girls.
A national writer who seems to be in the trade-down faction is Eric Adelson of Yahoo! Sports. He believes the Bucs smell so bad, they must trade down and pray Mike Glennon works out.
Now consider the possibility of a trade. If there is a willing taker, the Bucs will likely get either picks or talent or both. They need both. They can leave Glennon in as quarterback, introduce Charles Sims as a feature back and hope Doug Martin is healthy enough for a full season. They can use the picks on pass protection and added defensive help. Those ingredients would build the Bucs into more of a mold like what Smith used in Chicago. Keep in mind Smith has already called defensive tackle Gerald McCoy “the face of the franchise.”
There is of course a major risk: Winston and Mariota go elsewhere and thrive, while Glennon fails to develop. The more conventional move is to draft Winston and figure out ways for the Florida State star to throw the ball to emerging wideout Mike Evans just like he threw the ball to Kelvin Benjamin in Tallahassee.
But if the Bucs pick Winston or Mariota and the choice doesn’t work out, it’s hard to imagine Smith working out. By trading the pick, the head coach (and the GM) have more of a chance to create the kind of team that won in Chicago. And Glennon, with his big arm, can get the ball to Evans and Vincent Jackson with as much velocity as either of the picks could.
Joe cannot consider the possibility. If the Bucs had a quarterback, then trading down makes sense. But there is no team that needs a quarterback more than the Bucs. Not the Bills (hey, maybe E.J. Manuel figures it out?), not the Browns (Johnny Football is still there), not the Rams (maybe, just maybe, China Bradford can stay in one piece).
NFL teams without a quarterback, well, are basically urinating in the wind. The Rams may have had one of the best teams in the NFL and they missed the playoffs — why? — because Bradford was hurt.
It would be criminal for the Bucs to pass on two stud quarterbacks in this draft. Joe is convinced if that happened, the Bucs would lose their fan base. Good luck selling season tickets to locals; good luck selling any corporate partnerships; good luck selling out any games.
Yes, in most years, trading down when you have a garbage team makes sense. This is not the year. Next year, if the Bucs stink, and already have their quarterback, then yes.
Remember, Lovie Smith already has benched Glennon twice.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:07 pm
Actually, this is a very bad year to have the #1 pick in the draft. Trade down if you can find a sucker
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:11 pm
You forgot to mention good luck selling team merchandise.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:12 pm
If your a great coach in need of a quarterback which we clearly are you don’t just hope a third year player will work out, that’s enough evaluating. As a head coach your plan is to not be in need of a quarterback for the next 10-15 year’s.
I think it’s dumb how media talks about not being able to win without a quarterback but contemplate trade down options having first overall pick. Glennon is as big a gamble as Winston and Mariotta being that he’s done nothing the last two years. Hope the bucs are not reading any news
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:12 pm
I do not want to trade down. I am firmly in the Winson Camp… but any offer to trade down begins with THREE number 1s.
That means the Bucs get two first rounders in 2015, 2016, and 2017.
Oh? Too high a price? Go talk to someone else with the 1st overall pick and get back to me.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:24 pm
BucTrooper Says:
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:12 pm
I do not want to trade down. I am firmly in the Winson Camp… but any offer to trade down begins with THREE number 1s.
That means the Bucs get two first rounders in 2015, 2016, and 2017.
Oh? Too high a price? Go talk to someone else with the 1st overall pick and get back to me.
Do your math….the Bucs would get 1 in 2015 (they traded 1) 2 in 16 & 17…
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:25 pm
One can’t help but wonder how Glennon would do with a real Offensive coordinator, and a line to protect him.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:26 pm
Trading down will set this franchise back to infinity. The new rules in the modern NFL are very heavily skewed in favor of the top QBs in the league. The only way to get a true “franchise” quarterback is to draft them, and Winston and Mariota are as close to a sure thing as we’ve seen in years (excluding Luck of course) and most likely will also be the best prospects to come out for the foreseeable future as well.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:26 pm
foles and 2 1sts and 2 2nds would be the smartest play…
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:28 pm
Trading down is an act of self hate
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:30 pm
Draft Winston and trade down in the 2nd rd to acquire more draft picks.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:30 pm
@Chris
I also can’t help but wonder how Winston will do throwing the ball to Mike Evans. Look what kind of season Winston had as a Freshman when he was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin. Evans as we know is even far more talented than Benjamin. The sky is the limit with Winston throwing bombs to Evans and VJax.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:31 pm
Joe…..aren’t you preaching to the choir here…..this is a very small minority….The Buc.com poll is 3%……yours was, I think 12%…..
I can only presume that these fans think Glennon has potential…
And it depends on the deal……what about 4 1st rd picks and 4 second rd picks?
Sure….not happening….but everything is for sale at the right price.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:32 pm
Foles? LOL. We already have one of those guys on our roster, his name is Mike Glennon.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:37 pm
I kind of disagree with this. I agree that we shouldn’t trade down in the 1st round but 2nd round is a great oppertunity. I am positive some good players will slip into the 2nd round and having such a high pick will give us a great oppertunity I would think.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:39 pm
Big arm???
Inaccurate arm is more like it.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:39 pm
The rumored 3 first round picks, plus Foles and McCoy package has to be accepted if offered. If the Eagles want to give up at least 5, and depending on additional trades, as many as 10 starters for Mariota, we’d be morons to say no.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:41 pm
Trading down to build a team for years to come like Dungy did doesn’t make sense? Trent Diller and Shaun King were hardly great QB’s for the Bucs, and Brad Johnson won a SB with a legendary team that was built by Dungy over the years. Trading down to get a bunch of players to build from for the coming years, and picking a stud QB in a future draft makes a whole lot more sense. You people need to be patient like we all were when Dungy stocked up on great players and we won for years. Dont forget we had 3rd stringers back then that could have started for any other team.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:43 pm
Anytime a franchise QB is drafted it coach fail, it could lead to a coach being fired.
Anytime a team passes on a franchise QB, it could lead to a coach being fired.
Pretty much however a coach gets into losing he is going to be fired.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:46 pm
Per:JOE
“For reasons Joe just cannot figure out, this crowd is simply scared of a quarterback. Joe can only determine these same people have deep-rooted psychological issues. If they are scared of drafting a quarterback, then they also must be scared of girls.”
I guarantee you that my real life, confidant , and soul mate looks way better than yours. Nah, just f*king with you-don’t wanna put U on blast like that.
But for real though-Respect your POV in all–buts its the perfect year to trade down and grab a boat load of draft picks+ a couple of good fillers.
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:55 pm
I agree with Joe.
However, if a truly insane offer comes that doesn’t drop us out of the top 12, it has to be considered.
Forget the Eagles. NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN. They figure we’ll take Winston.
In fact, if the Bucs wereto convince the media that Mariota is a strong candidate for the #1, that might force the Eagles to the table. Licht just isn’t smart enough to figure that out.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:01 pm
I am not confident bucs would hit on those pics if they traded down. Draft a QB and don’t look back. I like Winston, but if Kelly is willing to mortgage the teams future that means Mariotta is potentially that good, draft him.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:02 pm
Thats one thing we can agree on Bonzai. Dropping out of the top 5 is insane. Down all the way to 20 without getting any other picks this year is idiotic. I’m not crazy about Lovie at all after this season but I can’t think he is crazy enough to do something like that.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:09 pm
@BuccaneerBonza
You can Co-sign whatever
I don’t read tea leaves or coffee grounds, or palms. So I can’t sit here and tell you what the BUCS will or will not do.
MY POV– is 2 trade down and grab a boat load of picks-If Philly is an option do it-If not f*k it. But I will not be pigeon holed into thinking–that picking ONE prospect right now–with a TEAM w/ a ton of holes is the wise play….Nope can’t do it buddy.
Your entitled to your POV though…as well as I
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:12 pm
“But there is no team that needs a quarterback more than the Bucs. Not the Bills (hey, maybe E.J. Manuel figures it out?), not the Browns (Johnny Football is still there)…”
Joe had me go from wondering if he was stirring the pot for hits to knowing he was. Nobody can seriously believe Manziel will be anything more than a brief footnote in the NFL history books…kind of like Ryan Leaf but without as many teams on his resume.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:12 pm
Ahhhh Joe your ignorance is particularly high today.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:17 pm
Lets hope bucs draft the best qb…..M.M. …and let Winston make Joe happy and date his daughter
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:24 pm
LOL at the mere thought that this will even happen. You can want it to happen and think it’s what’s best for the team…but in reality..
What do you think they will do with the pick?
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:25 pm
LuvMyBucs,
I agree with you take on Joe’s quote.
If being sold on Morris Claibourne, or Johnny Football ISN’T a sign of a “deep-rooted psychological issue”, then I am glad to share your POV.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:25 pm
He can’t be serious. There’s no way he watched games with that statement.
I remember one game where Glennon underthrew both Jackson and Evans MULTIPLEtimes…each of which would have likely been touchdowns.
And what crystal ball have you looked in to see which QB in this magical future draft will be a stud?
And if there’s none in that draft, do you just say again, “Eh, we’ll just wait till next year”.
At some point, next year has to be THIS year.
As I’ve posted before (with no response) I emplore you to find me an example of a team trading out of the #1 pick that doesn’t involve the players refusing to play for that team (Manning/Rivers, Elway).
I’ll wait…..
Not even during the epic Ricky Williams trade was he selected #1 overall.
I get your point, but I don’t agree with it whole-heartedly.
It could be that Kelly just believes that Mariota is the best QB for his system. That doesn’t mean that he’s necessarily the best QB in the draft…
…and let me pose this question, since we’re all speaking hypothetically (as none of us know exactly what is going to happen)…
What if Kelly DOES trade with us, making us think he wants Mariota and then goes ahead and drafts Winston? Should that be a red flag against Mariota?
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:31 pm
@SteveK
We’ve been around these parts, to see all of Joe’s busted draft picks and free agent suggestions. He means well I guess-But Its just his POV-no different from the rest of us. Opinions are like A**holes errr body got’em.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:33 pm
@87′
Lol, don’t get me started brotha
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:38 pm
Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Says:
March 3rd, 2015 at 2:25 pm
One can’t help but wonder how Glennon would do with a real Offensive coordinator, and a line to protect him.
——-_————
Didn’t freemanites say the same thing about Freeman. His passing percentage is still the stat that says you need competition from a serious contender not a broke down old veteran, if he’s better let him prove it but it still only makes Glennon valuable as trade bait.
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:42 pm
@bucs4lyfe…
That wasn’t our argument as much as “we need a TE”.
The offensive line was good enough for Free…we just had no other receiving options outside of Jackson (for a year) and Williams.
Unless you want to reference the great Arrelius Benn…
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:46 pm
@ Celly, thank you, who has seen Glenons cannon in action during games in which he under threw receivers, let’s not forget about sliding at least 1 yard before going for a first down, multiple times
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:49 pm
Is China Bradford the new Crystal Chandelier (Chris Chandler)?
March 3rd, 2015 at 3:52 pm
@Rrsrq…
I remember him running out of bounds, not sliding….
…but, yeah, i get your point.
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:03 pm
We do need a qb. But I would still rather work with Glennon over Ej man or Manziel or even Geno.
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:24 pm
Any scenario that envisions an offense built around Glennon and Sims is flawed at this point. Both may ultimately turn into nice NFL players, but I can’t imagine any situation where you would forego the opportunity to pick a possible franchise QB, and the hope and excitement that come with it, in favor of selling a fan base on the notion that the team is in good hands with two 3rd round draft picks with less than 20 combined starts. Both may ultimately have better careers than anyone who is chosen #1, but I can’t imagine either has shown such promise that the team would be willing to give up the potential impact the #1 pick might have on the team and its fanbase.
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:25 pm
[…] Wrong Year To Trade Down […]
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:27 pm
LargoBuc Says:
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:03 pm
We do need a qb. But I would still rather work with Glennon over Ej man or Manziel or even Geno.
Lol everybody in the league would agree with that, try mentioning a decent quarterback to compare him to when saying we don’t need one
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:49 pm
There isn’t a consensus top pick in this draft. Considering the chances of the Bucs picking a player that doesn’t pan out, the pick is actually more valuable as a way to spread the risk by moving down and collecting several premium picks.
The Bucs may not have a great QB situation, but they have Glennon. He might be better than all the free agent QBs, Winston and Mariota. Trading down could be the smart thing to do. However, I expect the Bucs to take a QB and hope for the best.
March 3rd, 2015 at 4:58 pm
Glennon is FASTER than Winston!!!
How do u ppl not see that???
Do u remember how painful it is to see Glennon scramble??
Well, just imagine, Winston!!!
He’s actually slower!!
@joe
You are the crazy one.
You wanted to draft Johnny Manziel!!
Do u know how I KNEW he would be a bust???
Johnny ran a 4.7 at the combine!!!
Thats pathetic for a “playmaker!”
Johnny can’t outrun ANYBODY at the pro level.
Not LB or even DT’s!!
And Joe wanted Johnny??? Please @joe
Maybe you are crazy!! Ever thought of that??
March 3rd, 2015 at 5:17 pm
@teacherman
first off, Blessings Ras….
Secondly, i don’t care about 40 times. What i do know to be a fact is this:
Glennon once ran out of bounds on a key 4th down instead of lowering his shoulder and picking up the first down.
Licht’s favorite play of Winston involves not a throw, but him running down field and blocking a DB that was the only man standing in the way of his RB scoring.
Also, since when do 40 times matter for QBs?
March 3rd, 2015 at 5:19 pm
Why even waste time writing or talking about a trade down? Much less hope or prefer that’s what happens…
How many times must everyone be reminded that the #1 NFL pick as NEVER been traded for multiple picks. NEVER. Oh – but this could be the 1st time in the history of the league…. LOL
Just stop.
March 3rd, 2015 at 5:20 pm
‘has’ never been traded
March 3rd, 2015 at 5:20 pm
@Pickgrin
stop wasting your breath. Every time i bring that up and ask for just ONE example, i get ZERO response.
The only scenarios that come to mind involve that pick not wanting to play for the team that drafted them and having to trade their rights to another team (Manning/Rivers, Elway).
March 3rd, 2015 at 6:06 pm
@Celly Ahhh let’s see, starting with the 3 QB’s out of Ohio State, there are 2 to 3 more that I’m sure will be in the draft next year. I’m sure Glennon can keep us on track until then.
March 3rd, 2015 at 6:09 pm
JOE
why to writers just say glennon has a cannon for an arm. is it really that much better than these 2 draft picks or most qbs in the league. ive watched just about every glennon show, and don’t really see it. its strong but hes an nfl qb so idk. ive just havent seen anything that makes you really think hes that good or strong.
March 3rd, 2015 at 6:10 pm
i just dont get why most writers say he has such a strong arm when i havent really seen that in games. abeit oline struggles but seen alot of deep ball underthrows
March 3rd, 2015 at 6:47 pm
The draft can’t get here soon enough. Anyone suggesting we pass on these QBs is a moron! Lol at the Foles and 20th pick idea. I don’t want two Mike Glennons. If we trade for picks do you morons know the success/fail rate of draft picks! You act like we will get LT 2.0 and Paul Gruber 2.0. Who says we wouldn’t get Gaines Adams and Kenyatta Walker 2.0. Winston has been described as the best QB prospect in the last 10 years outside of Luck, but pass on him and ride with Glennon! SMH!
March 3rd, 2015 at 7:49 pm
Joe, you really need to find a woman.
March 3rd, 2015 at 7:55 pm
Hey Ladies, if you’re Hot, go see Joe.
But you have to be hot.
You can email pics in advance.
And if you’re really really hot, he’ll send a limo.
March 3rd, 2015 at 9:29 pm
Tampabaybucfan….
I DID my math. I want TWO number ones this year. TWO next year and TWO in 2017. If you don’t have that, don’t come to the table.
I TYPED EXACTLY WHAT I MEANT, MR. JUDGY PANTS.
March 3rd, 2015 at 10:04 pm
I’ve watched Glennon with the Bucs for 2 seasons and with NC State for 2 seasons and I have yet to see this big arm that everybody talks about. Wasn’t he the only QB to fail to crack 50MPH at the Combine three years ago?
March 3rd, 2015 at 11:06 pm
Hi, I’m Rob Lowe
…and I’m Rob Lowe who doesn’t want to draft a QB.
Don’t be like this me.
Draft a quarterback.
March 3rd, 2015 at 11:40 pm
I’d be just as happy to pull of a great trade or just take BPA
regardless of position.
It stems back to my college days when I couldn’t pull.
I used to always see the starting QB around campus
pulling all the talent in sight. It used to burn me so bad
that I swore one day I would try to influence the Bucs to not
draft a quarterback.
March 4th, 2015 at 12:00 am
I really wish all the Fantasy Footballers would put down their computers and watch an NFL game or two. Rules weighted for quarterbacks, franchise quarterbacks, ability to make “all the throws,” extending the play – none of it matters. No one, not Brady, Manning (either one), Brees, Rodgers, Rothlesberger (sic), Marino, Montana, Brawshaw, Unitas none of them do anything without an offensive line. The Bucs are in a position where they need to do what they need to do to build that offensive line and that includes trading down from the number one if necessary.
March 4th, 2015 at 12:50 am
@Rick
Be careful brotha, objective reasoning is frowned upon in this establishment.
March 4th, 2015 at 1:54 am
While I agree that drafting a drop back QB will require protection, or another year of letting MG8 ‘make all the throws’ (and nearly completing most of them to our own receivers, with players draped all about his person)…even still, at some point a ‘Kid Fameis’ will have to make an appearance, if only because all the other QB’s are on IR…
See, when presented with better at the QB position, than the available talent at OL (especially LOT)…you don’t trade down for a less than sufficient O-linemen that you STILL have to break of his spread tendencies (and one glance at the list of offensive lineman, and the schools they play, will confirm that there simply isn’t a “Pro-Style” LOT that rivals the talents of either of the QB candidates…).
So, it would not avail us to bypass the either of the two QB’s to grab a Guard doing his BEST imitation of a LOT – from a school that runs a spread-otion (it’s happened, a LOT…).
That’s why, in the strategy that says we’re going to run a spread-heavy “pro-style” behind a well coached zone blocking scheme…there are a LOT of players that are already pretty proficient at running the same kind of offense as Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, and Philadelphia. All but Philadelphia (who had the most productive offense in the NFL while barely missing the 2014 playoffs) made it to the playoff’s with QB’s from spread heavy teams in college, and all were drafted since 2011.
Two of these QB’s have already played in a Super Bowl…one has been to two Super Bowls, and already has a ring.
…running a spread-heavy “Pro Style” offense.
Oh, yeah, this just in…ALL of them drafted their offensive linemen in the same draft or the year later, utilizing lower round picks…all of them came from spread dominant teams.
Lately, the trends are with the teams who went with spread-heavy formats with rookie’s from spread dominant attacks…and within 2 years they were in the playoff’s, and two of them have already played…ah well, you get the idea.
…or, you could go BACK, to the future.
Excitement, or patiently hoping for some consistent defensive scoring…
March 4th, 2015 at 1:57 am
All this comparing and what if Winston is the 2nd coming of JaMarcus Russell?? I believe all the experts said Russell was a no brainer and the best they’ve seen in years.. LOL! The bottom line is, no one knows until 2 or 3 years from now, so let’s just trade down a hopefully 4 out of 6 players panout, rather then hope 1 is the answer.
March 4th, 2015 at 9:42 am
Picking a QB is all for naught if he has no coach to develop him. Does anyone remember Steve young, Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer all former bucs who went on to better coaching situations and won the SB. To put a rookie behind our present O line and expect him to succeed is INSANE.
March 4th, 2015 at 5:39 pm
Draft Winston, pick up whatever rookie oline and FA oline we can. Start MG8 and let him get pummeled until he gets hurt, or until at least 8-10 games are in the books. By then the line will probably be improved enough to protect Winston for the most part and we will have lost enough games to get a decent draft pick next year. Then let Winston blow out his rookie inexperience for 6-8 games and he will be ready next year to do well.