“Were The Analysts Completely Wrong?”
February 3rd, 2015
Legions of NFL insiders were all over Tampa Bay last summer. They were talking playoffs and about how the Bucs could be the 2013 version of the Chiefs.
Even Peter King and Herm Edwards were rumbling about a possible Super Bowl appearance!
BSPN NFL stats guru and writer Mike Sando is intrigued by the Bucs’ massive flop. As a true numbers guy, he’s openly wondering whether the Bucs are poised to right what might have been an anomaly last season.
Sando penned a piece on teams to watch — in a good way — in 2015. And he thinks the Bucs could be competitive for a playoff berth.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They were so much worse than anticipated last season after making a series of personnel moves that went over well with some of our analysts, notably Bill Polian. Were the analysts completely wrong, or is this a situation where a strong-enough foundation is in place for Tampa Bay to take a giant step forward in a potentially weak division? Having an actual offensive coordinator could help this team make the leap, especially if it finds success with a rookie QB at No. 1 overall.
Yes, it’s ludicrously early for any kind of prognostication, but it’s fun nonetheless.
Joe would like to see the Bucs win a home game under Lovie Smith. That would be a nice start towards a turnaround.
As for Sando wondering about the analysts, yes, they were wrong. The Bucs were dreadful, and close games don’t count. Joe predicted a 7-9 season. Joe was at 6-10, but added a game when the Bucs traded for Logan Mankins to solidify (allegedly) their offensive line.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:22 am
Anyone from JBF to Bill Polian that says they knew the Buc’s 12+ free agents would turn out to be as useful as a turd in a punchbowl, is just talking trash!
Everyone of us was lauding the aggressive moves to try and better this team.
It didn’t work out, obviously.
But don’t stop trying! L & L have to give it another go. maybe hit on another two or three free agents. That’s 2 or 3 better players, than we had before FA started.
The cap money is there to be spent. Sometimes like Jackson it works and sometimes like Nicks it doesn’t. Free agency is a crapshoot. But you can’t improve your team overnight with only the draft.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:26 am
But that’s the thing….expecting overnight improvement is a bit delusional. Realistically if this team is going to be built right, it will take 3-5 years, but no one wants to hear that. They’d rather win another offseason and act like things will be different in September. Virtually all the best teams are built through the draft, expecting the buck the trend with constant splurges into FA is not a great approach.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:29 am
I remember when we made fun of the USA Today guy who predicted 3-13. Who knew he shot high?
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:32 am
“Were the analysts completely wrong?”…the Bucs were the worst team in the league by far and have earned the #1 overall pick. Safe to say they were wrong Sando!
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:33 am
“JC De La Torre Says:
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:29 am
I remember when we made fun of the USA Today guy who predicted 3-13. Who knew he shot high?”
I did
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:45 am
If only we could have caught a glimpse of what happened in a parallel universe where Greg Schiano was still the Buc’s HC last year. While this is pure fiction I suspect the reality would have been far better than 2-14 with 0 home wins. Sadly so far Lovie Smith = careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:49 am
How can we really judge anyone on offense? The Bucs looked good in the dress rehearsal against Buffalo in the preseason, and that was the last we saw of Tedford or success.
Had Tedford been there the whole year, things could have been way different. Yes even with Butters McCown.
And defense? Everyone will say, Michael Johnson! But I refuse to believe that he was ever 100% healthy at any time this year. And I expect to see that come out eventually.
It’s too early even now to make a definitive conclusion.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:55 am
Draft JW5 #1 fix the oline(start by getting rid of anthony collins) add about two or three pass rushers. Resign Mason Foster also find a solid nickel corner( Leonard johnson is nowhere close to the answer) and a safety( we have one that’s way overpaid). The Bucs also need a speed injection at receiver(hopefully Robert herron can catch the ball next year). Sounds like a lot but doable go “Bucnation”
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:02 am
BucinSC Says:
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:55 am
Draft JW5 #1 fix the oline(start by getting rid of anthony collins) add about two or three pass rushers. Resign Mason Foster also find a solid nickel corner( Leonard johnson is nowhere close to the answer) and a safety( we have one that’s way overpaid). The Bucs also need a speed injection at receiver(hopefully Robert herron can catch the ball next year). Sounds like a lot but doable go “Bucnation”
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Let Foster walk and either sign Rolando McClain of the Cowboys (they can’t resign him with Lee as the starter and Murray and Bryant free agents) or draft Kendricks of UCLA, Perryman of Miami, or Bernardrick McKinney of Miss St. in round 2. I like Jamison Crowder or Tyler Lockett to be the slot WR of the future and present as well as being the dangerous return specialist this team needs in round 3.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:03 am
Fire Lovie. Nice man. Bad coach.
Pedestrian at best.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:11 am
The bit about the OC is the biggest thing. That, on it’s own, should at least buy us another couple wins this year, even if we decided to forfeit the draft and go in to next year with the same exact team.
We have weapons, some solid pieces on defense and cap room to add some depth and maybe a key piece or two. Agree on needing a speed/slot WR, I’d like to see an upgrade at MLB (one that can do well in pass coverage) Foster doesn’t quite do it for me. O-line is a given need and should be the top priority.
Agree with bucrightoff completely, it’ll take time to fix this team, and the draft is where it gets done. A lot of Lovie hate goes around here but I hope he gets at least 3 years to turn things around. Thought the same for Raheem and Schiano too, stick with the coach and build the culture/consistency.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:12 am
Even a crappy team should expect to win a home game. Not doing so is extremely depressing even with the two road wins. It is the ultimate insult that a home team comes up goose eggs in front of their home base fans. No division wins, don’t get me started on that ineptitude.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:12 am
I don’t know why that doesn’t make sense to anyone. addition by subtraction lovie please get rid of leonard Johnson and your defense will dramatically improve
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:22 am
AHAHAHAHA…best article ever. Hell no we aren’t going to no playoffs. I think Atlanta wins it next year just based off of who their coaches are. They have an all-star cast there. Saints are always a threat and the Panthers don’t have as many holes as we do to fill. We have another year or two before we can get this ball rolling.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:35 am
“…The Bucs looked good in the dress rehearsal against Buffalo in the preseason, and that was the last we saw of Tedford or success.”
That Lovie FAILED to give Arroyo any kind of OC assistance, be it hiring an advisor or whatever, is the BIGGEST blunder of our season. There is nothing else one can point to that in your heart you can say cost us 3-4 games.nit was a friggin circus
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:48 am
All of this just shows how all of the NFL “experts” can be totally wrong. Like the ones who say that JaMarcus Winston is “NFL ready”
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:49 am
@Skyline Crew
ATLANTA DUDE? are you all about name recognition? because I don’t remember this coach ever being a head coach before, I don’t remember this defensive coordinator having anything close to resembling a decent defense lol are you afraid of raheem morris? with the exception of Julio jones their receivers are on the wrong side of 30 with no tight end to speak of and no running game and average o line….sorry dude i’ll go along with anything you said except for that, matty ice has done nothing in this league that scares anyone
February 3rd, 2015 at 12:13 pm
@bucs4lyfe
So you are going to tell me that a DC from a SuperBowl champion team and almost 2x Superbowl champion team doesn’t bother you?
Talking about triumvirates “The Atlanta Falcons may have assembled one to rival all of these, however, with their 2015 coaching trio of defensive coordinator Richard Smith, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and now head coach Dan Quinn. Eat your heart out, Caesar.
Rookie head coach Quinn –- who has engineered two back-to-back Super Bowl caliber defensive units for the Seattle Seahawks –- looks to lead this Atlanta franchise into a new era.”
Kyle can run an offense and he has proven that. I think they will be very good next year with these guys. Their Defense at least should be a hell of a lot better. They bring a lot more to the table than what we have. Lovie is past his coaching prime and doesn’t realize that the NFL has changed. We keep hiring college coaches…hasn’t worked out. So I would much rather have their coaches than ours. Yet, since Chucky we haven’t really had any good coaches so any coach looks better than ours.
February 3rd, 2015 at 12:16 pm
Riddle me this Batmen, why do people think Koetter is going to do anything of significance in Tampa when he’s only won 10 games in 2 years with Ryan, Jones, White, fckn tony Gonzales, Jackson – all of which are probowlers?
Somehow he’s going to turn a rookie qb, ASJ lol, and crew into a 9 win team?
Come on man!!! Get a grip. Man I miss schiano at least you knew he wanted to win but he had too possy leaders on his team who complained all the way to the bank. Now everybody in love with flip flop lovie and his 2 wins. #icecream
February 3rd, 2015 at 12:27 pm
I dont think were as far away as everyone thinks. But if Lovie and Co. doesn’t do a better job of coaching, we are screwed no matter what we do in the off season.
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:27 pm
@Skyline Crew
In this case I seriously think you read too much….what about the talk the bucs were getting last year, even endorsements that sounded the same about lovie smith from bill polian. dude that means nothing because at the end of the day the seahawks have been nailing the draft year after year and they have a great defense no doubt about it……a lot of what they do has mostly to do with their pass rush, last time I checked bucs were ranked 29 in sacks and Atlanta’s ranked like 28. where are they getting a pass rush from, where are they getting linebackers and safties from? doesn’t matter how good a defensive coordinator you are if you don’t have the talent which we saw with our own team last year
Stop sipping the kool aid bro….did you know Atlanta was like top 10 in offense last year? so if they’re offense kicks back into gear again this year it’ll be no different than last year when they still ended up with a pitful record. they don’t have the horses, if they lose draft picks for piping in crowd noise it’ll be even worse
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:35 pm
2013: 4-12 against the toughest schedule in the league.
2014: 2-14 against the weakest schedule in the league, with no home wins, and no wins against a (historically weak) division opponent.
Offense worse.
Defense worse.
Special teams much worse.
Difficult to name even one player who clearly played better in 2014, than 2013.
tickrdr
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:43 pm
yea how about 4-12 with the best shutdown corner in football mike glennon at qb, paying ridiculous money for eric wright and dashon goldson, drafting mark baron a safety that cant cover with the 7th pick in the draft, he never beat a rookie qb in two years. he’s garbage so lets compare lovie after 2 years not after one it’s so pathetic
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:47 pm
bucs4lyfe Says:
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:27 pm
@Skyline Crew
In this case I seriously think you read too much….what about the talk the bucs were getting last year, even endorsements that sounded the same about lovie smith from bill polian.
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Whoever thought we were doing anything last year was crazy. An OC from college. A QB coach who never taught anything. People thought we were doing something? I thought we would at least get to 7 wins. I mean that is only 3 wins more than the year prior. Our defense hasn’t been utilized like it should because Lovie continues to use the base Tampa 2. He needs to realize that the NFL has changed and update his defense. If we had a real Defensive coach we would be much better. Our defense is archaic at best.
February 3rd, 2015 at 1:53 pm
There you go again pointing out rational facts tickrdr…keep it up and you’ll get yourself branded as part of the MGM or worse…someone not sold on Lovie Smith being a coaching upgrade for the Bucs.
February 3rd, 2015 at 2:02 pm
dude calm down….your talking about what people are saying about the dan Quinn hire and he has done nothing yet, I was speaking about the same things people were saying about the lovie smith hire….bottom line if you think he’s gonna take the same defensive line that was ranked 28 in sacks and make it top 10 your crazy….they aren’t even close to the defensive talent he had in seattle.
and you said it best……An OC from college. A QB coach who never taught anything. you mean you still expected 7 wins after he took over the offense? because that would explain why your mad but if you expected 7 wins that’s a you problem, the team was doomed as soon as jeff tedford went down…..looking at game 3 of the preseason the offense was humming so we were all set up for high expectations
February 3rd, 2015 at 6:22 pm
Zam Says:
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:49 am
How can we really judge anyone on offense? The Bucs looked good in the dress rehearsal against Buffalo in the preseason, and that was the last we saw of Tedford or success.
Had Tedford been there the whole year, things could have been way different. Yes even with Butters McCown.
And defense? Everyone will say, Michael Johnson! But I refuse to believe that he was ever 100% healthy at any time this year. And I expect to see that come out eventually.
It’s too early even now to make a definitive conclusion.
True words
February 3rd, 2015 at 9:15 pm
We all drank the coolaid and somehow thought that all those roster moves meant improvement in personnel, when in fact the opposite occurred. Add to that the nonexistence of an OC and Lovie’s horrible coaching and choosing McClown as QB and you had the recipe for 2-14. Lovie should stay far away from personnel and the offense but that won’t be the case. Even his defense was bad most of the season. I sure don’t want to see McCown in a BUCS uniform next year.
February 3rd, 2015 at 10:22 pm
Pelbuc is right, we all drank the Koolaid and had no reason to doubt the national pundits when they said the Bucs could be a surprise team: yeah they were a surprise allright…… But the lack of an OC and poor coaching from Lovie on down cost the Bucs several wins but besides coaching we simply saw a lack of talent on the Bucs roster which also reflects badly on L&L. If the Bucs went 2-14 with Tedford staying healthy I suspect that L&L might have been fired by the Glazers but the lack of an OC and the resulting crippling of any complete gameplan due to the lack of preparation/adjustments/execution on the offensive side of the ball along with some tanking by Lovie resulted in the 2-14 season and probably raised enough doubts/excuses to buy Lovie this season to right the ship. Like Pelbuc I am very worried that Lovie will somehow get himself involved when he shouldn’t and somehow create even a bigger train wreck. The best we can hope for is that he is told by the Glazer punks to let Licht and Koetter address the offensive dilemnas and allow him to manage the team and help Frazier address some of the issues on defense and the somehow still employed O’Dea on special teams but please keep Lovie away from the offense!
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:41 pm
Lost the OC just as the season started…
Defense played ELITE….
Elite defense, high school offense…Dirk Koetter makes us legit overnight.
…
February 4th, 2015 at 5:20 pm
I have a lot of respect for Bill Polian and his opinion so if he was impressed with the FA’s Lovie brought in, then it’s hard to blame Love that some of them went bad when an unbiased opinion felt like they were good pickups.
That will never satisfy the legion of Lovie haters out here who despise him for reasons that probably don’t have anything to do I with his ability.
February 5th, 2015 at 11:14 am
Here’s the main reason. Lovie Smith is perceived as a fairly decent coach nationally, but in actuality, he is the worst coach in the NFL since Rich Kotite. Bears fans know this and now, unfortunately for us, Buccaneer fans know it.