Stats Vs. Evaluation
February 9th, 2015
The stat geeks are not impressed with Bucs DE Jacquies Smith.
It just blows Joe’s mind that year after year after year, no matter who runs the show, no matter who the shot-caller is, the Bucs urinate in the wind trying to find an edge rusher.
It is sad the team has yet to retain a replacement for Simeon Rice (who Joe thinks should be under serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame). For goodness sake, that was nine years ago.
And when the Bucs had a capable replacement, Michael Bennett, the team let him walk away for no good reason. So, perhaps, the Bucs got what they deserved?
From Stylez White to sackless Kyle Moore to Da’Quan Bowers to ghostly Michael Johnson, it is simply laughable how this team cannot find an edge rusher. A drunk in a bar couldn’t try to swing and miss this badly.
Now last year, when the Bucs plucked Jacquies Smith off the street, it seemed like a gem was discovered. Playing in but 15 games, Smith was second on the team in sacks with 6.5.
Barring something unforeseen, Smith is your starting left defensive next season. The Bucs sure seem happy with Smith.
However, the geeks over at Pro Football Focus are unimpressed. They broke out their Excel spreadsheets and determined that of all team leaders in edge pressure, Smith was the second-worst in the NFL, types Khaled Elsayed.
The most interesting spots are those at the bottom. Where the need for Jacksonville to find an impact pass rusher is made abundantly clear with Andre Branch their “stud”, while the Bucs will wonder how their investment in the edge rush position saw them finish with the second-lowest finisher courtesy of an undrafted free agent who they picked up in preseason. Food for thought as we enter free agency and draft season.
Joe isn’t sure what the numbers crunchers use as criteria to determine their findings. And it could be that the Bucs were so absolutely starved for edge pressure that something seemed like treasure when compared to nothing.
Next week, when Joe is at the NFL Scouting Combine in frigid Indianapolis, Joe hopes to talk to folks who can shed some light on why the stat guys aren’t fond of Smith.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:05 pm
Stats are for losers…..and we were definately losers.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:06 pm
Jacquies Smith is our best DE, they are crazy
February 9th, 2015 at 3:08 pm
our team is a joke, the hard task is to turn it around.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:09 pm
kind of hard for a DE to get to the QB when our CB are playing 10 yards deep and the QB releases in 2 seconds.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:11 pm
And it could be that the Bucs were so absolutely starved for edge pressure that something seemed like treasure when compared to nothing.
You answered your own question joe. Here some more, the BEST 3tech in the league got out played by a rookie who went to the probowl with 9 sacs.
It’s all about perspective.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:13 pm
From Stylez White to sackless Kyle Moore to Da’Quan Bowers to ghostly Michael Johnson,
You forgot #50 who played DE for schiano, whatever his name was, worst of the worst.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:14 pm
Leonard Williams
February 9th, 2015 at 3:23 pm
Why not Greg Hardy?
February 9th, 2015 at 3:38 pm
Smith plays hard every down. He wore down right tackles last season. At the very least he should be in the rotation on the left side next year.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:40 pm
It’s a trench war.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:49 pm
The struggle is REAL!
February 9th, 2015 at 3:56 pm
The stats are bad because the coaching is bad! I cannot understand why the Buc’s did not sign Rich Incognito?? If you are going to draft the Rapist Winston, why not line up Incognito, Greg Hardy…a couple of the wife beaters from the Niners and hey…what about Ray Rice??
If we have no one who can coach and/or evaluate talent, and if the moral fiber of the #1 pick does not matter (he assualts women and then speaks horribly about them) …lets just get all the proven bad boys from the NFL and start winning some games!
I am not saying Lovie could find his big butt with both hands in the dark, but the team would have to improve with all the domestic violence and kid beaters in the league!!
Greg Schiano!
February 9th, 2015 at 3:59 pm
The Bucs need 2 starting DE’s and Smith would be 1st to come in during line rotations.
Funny how Joe said nothing about the DE that the bucs drafted with a 1st round pick in 2011 that did not pan out.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:59 pm
Greg schiano
Good point I forgot all about Adrian Peterson. Let’s sign him too.
February 9th, 2015 at 4:01 pm
Uggggghh. screw the stats. The guys at PFF probably weren’t watching many bucs games last year and i was. I am very excited about Jacquies and hope he continues his 2014 ways
February 9th, 2015 at 4:12 pm
and people wonder why the NFL is worried about their image. LOL
between that and the flag football rules they should be
February 9th, 2015 at 4:15 pm
Peterson I’d take but Incognito was a locker room cancer, Buffalo can have him.
February 9th, 2015 at 5:00 pm
Smith may have been plucked out of Buffalo in Week 2 but he hardly saw any consistent action until at least 1/3 of the season was over.
February 9th, 2015 at 5:38 pm
@Joe I think the most interesting part of this article is that JBF will have boots on the ground.
February 9th, 2015 at 5:54 pm
Adrian clayborne, daquan bowers, teo whsohisname, stylez white, michael johnson, and everybody else has SUCKED
Sinced “general” schiano ran Michael Bennet out of town.
And spoiled brat psycho Gruden messed with Simeon Rice.
We have had nothin at DE.
We need two studs. This season.
February 9th, 2015 at 6:07 pm
Michael Johnson’s “pass rushing productivity” in the 2013-14 season(we signed him after this season) was also just better than what Jacquies Smith put up this year. Which means Licht/Lovie paid 9-10 million per year for a guy that would have ranked 30th in this years PRP rankings.
February 9th, 2015 at 9:20 pm
I thought J Smith’s #s were quite impressive considering the # of snaps he played last year. As a starter playing the majority of snaps over 16 games – what Jacqueis Smith did last year would project to about 12-13 sacks. He had a lot of pressures as well and also greatly contributed to the sack #s of other linemen. In short – this free agent off the streets was our best and most consistent lineman last year considering he was on the field for less than half the season’s defensive snaps. Very impressive. High motor young man who gave big effort on every snap (unlike the other starting DE).
I’m all for spending a day 2 draft pick on a DE if the value is good and/or bringing in FA talent as well. I think the starting point personnel wise though for the Bucs at that position should be to sign Adrian Clayborn to a 2 year low risk base – highly incentivised deal. Give Clayborn a $2.5M bonus incentive for hitting double digit sacks and I think you will see a very motivated player coming off that edge.
February 9th, 2015 at 11:05 pm
Well said “Pickgrin”
I also would like clay born to stick around if he can stay healthy
February 10th, 2015 at 8:26 am
The quote in that article says more about how bad the Bucs’ edge rush was than how bad Smith was. They’re saying Smith was our best edge rusher but not good enough relative to other edge rushers. This is all true and shouldn’t prevent the team from bringing him back as a major contributor. He just shouldn’t be the main guy.
February 10th, 2015 at 10:35 am
pff is a friggin joke. they thought we upgraded our o-line last year. dogged out penn and zuttah and were high on EDS and A.Collins. enough said. want a good laugh read their article “envisioning change” form april last year. you’ll see what fools they are.
February 10th, 2015 at 10:45 am
“In a savvy move, the Buccaneers got their rebuilding project started by releasing Donald Penn and signing Anthony Collins. Collins has a smaller sample size, but he has been dominant in pass protection when given the chance.”
i’d rather have my grandma pick free agents than these clowns.