Lovie Is A Scouting Combine Kind Of Guy
February 14th, 2015
Ask Bucs general manager Jason Licht about the NFL Scouting Combine, which kicks off in Indianapolis next week, and Licht will tell you it’s “underwear Olympics” and he won’t adjust his draft board much based on combine stats.
Lovie Smith is the opposite.
Lovie and Licht, who allegedly had total personnel consensus on all moves last offseason, have different combine philosophies.
This was revealed during the epic Webumentary featuring Lovie on Buccaneers.com last spring. Scott Smith talked to Lovie about the combine. The discussion delivered one of the most telling segments examining Lovie’s first 100 days in the Bucs’ oval office.
“Here I get to see Clowney and Mack running through position drills,” said Smith later that evening, after an abbreviated round of player interviews. “One and then other. That’s a good comparison. You see which one has better movement. You watch all the receivers, one after the other – which ones are running their routes better, to the naked eye? Which ones can catch the ball?
“We see it now, and when we go back to Tampa, all our coaches can watch all the video from the Combine. They can slow it down and see everything. ‘Is the guy looking the ball in? I thought he looked good during the change-of-direction drills, but now I get a chance to see that on tape, and verify it.’”
This is why Smith won’t downplay the Combine, even if it’s fashionable to do so. As much as he will rely on videotape to evaluate his own roster, the pending pool of free agents and dozens of potential high draft picks, Smith knows its limitations. The Combine fills in the gaps that video leaves the evaluator by putting all of the available talent up against each other, just a few yards away from the scouts’ eyes.
“Here’s the thing: Video can lie to you,” said Smith. “Let’s say I’m watching some college video and I see this wide receiver and he keeps running by the guy on the other side of the line. The whole game, he’s just blowing right by the cornerback. And you say, ‘Wow, this guy’s fast.’ Well, as it turns out, that corner trying to cover him runs a 5.1 and the receiver runs a 4.9. It’s all relative. … …
“I think we’ve got great coaches,” said Smith. “You can have the best coach around and you can coach up a guy all you want, and we’re going to do that. But if a guy runs a 4.8, coach him up all you like and you’re going to have a real good guy that’s coached up at 4.8. But that guy that’s 4.6, if he’s coached up the same way, he’s going to be better than the 4.8 guy. In the same way, if you have a guy with more all-around athletic ability – because it’s not all about speed – you’re going to be able to coach him up into a better player.”
Actually, there are four sets of numbers that Smith focuses on from the Combine: the 40-yard dash, the 10-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump. He’s narrowed it down to those four through many Combine visits and after-the-fact player comparisons.
“That’s what I look at,” said Smith. “Through the years, I’ve compared what guys have done here and how they’ve turned out and all that. These are the things that tell me the most about their raw ability. You can work on different things, even your speed, your start and all of that. The three-cone drill, all of that, you can work on that stuff. But, again, this is just raw ability.
“I want to know the 40-yard-dash speed. It’s a comparison with everybody else; I want to know. Also the 10-yard [run]. The vertical leap. In the vertical, you can’t move anything. It’s just boom…an explosion, straight up. The broad jump…just explosion straight out. I look at those, and they mean an awful lot. If you give me a guy with that type of ability and he’s coachable…those are the ones that are going to really hit. That’s what I’ve seen in my 30 years. I believe that fully.”
Joe is in Licht’s camp. The combine is overrated, especially as players are training like madmen to run around cones and through straight lines. However, there is plenty to see and evaluate.
For example, Joe vivdly remembers watching the 2010 combine, where Dez Bryant and Mike Williams clearly were standout athletes with wicked body control, when compared to their peers. Stuff you can’t teach. And both showed that immediately at the NFL level.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:21 am
The Bucs will have more difficulty than some other teams…..they need to evaluate more players for three reasons….
Possible trade downs….
Being at the top of rounds…..especially the first….evaluating players at the bottom of the first and top of the second
Multiple needs
February 14th, 2015 at 11:33 am
Except for DBs, receivers, and maybe a back, who ever runs 40 yards in a game?
I would look at the 5, 10, 15 yard speeds. This is reaction based because you can be faster but slow to react and lose.
I would be more interested in how fast they can think and react under pressure. The great ones all do this.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:38 am
Think Lovie makes a lot of real good points here. Basically using the combine to compare guys that are close on film.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:41 am
@OB I’m sure they break down the 40 in to splits for just that purpose.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:44 am
Lovie will be very, very focused on the MLB position….possibly later round CB, S & DE…
Koetter will be focused on Oline/WR
Everyone will be focused on QB
February 14th, 2015 at 11:44 am
On this I agree with Lovie. The Combine gives you up close and personal access to these guys and gives you a glimpse into what it would be like working these guys through some of the same drills when they join your team. Plus I think that how a young guy prepares for the Combine tells you a lot about how they will prepare for games every Sunday. Sometimes the pressure brings out the best in guys, and sometimes it sinks them. The interviews are also handy….is the guy just giving the same canned speech to everyone, or can they actually think and communicate on their feet? I’m not saying the Combine is THE deciding factor on if you choose a guy, but it’s another very important tool smart coaches use to make the best decision possible.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:46 am
Beware of the combine freak….anyone remember Mike Mamula?
Game video is your friend…..
No one wanted Tom Brady because when they saw him in his underwear at the combine, they saw a tall, skinny, gangly dude…..
Funny how things turn out, eh?
February 14th, 2015 at 11:53 am
I hope Lovie uses his “it’s all relative” take when watching tape of Winston against those crappy ACC defenses.
February 14th, 2015 at 11:57 am
@Tampabaybucfan
Given the needs at QB, OL, Safety and MLB, I doubt much thought will go into WR in the draft, unless several positions are filled by FAs.
I could see Lovie going after a kick returner though.
February 14th, 2015 at 12:07 pm
@Tom Edrington….there have been just as many players who really helped themselves at the Combine with strong performances and went on to solid NFL careers. Remember Scouts don’t always get it right on a guy coming out of college…for example Richard Sherman. Here’s what some of the scouts had to say about him before the Combine…”a size prospect with some good intangibles that will help him be a contributing backup corner for press heavy teams. However he does not possess the natural cover instincts, fluidity or burst to be a future starter. Not explosive…lacks great recovery skills…can struggle in the open field.” Obviously the Seahawks saw something in this guy that others didn’t (maybe even at the combine). So you have to look at other things besides game tape sometimes!
February 14th, 2015 at 12:09 pm
@ Mr Niceguy
Not one of the top WR prospects….but one for round 6 or 7……KR/PR/WR….sort of like Herron last year…
Bucs draft history I believe almost always has included a WR….
February 14th, 2015 at 12:15 pm
“Fire at McClain’s house ruled arson”
off topic a bit but it looks like one less MLB will be available in free agency, if they can tie the fire to McClain that is. A couple of the TV reports say they have witnesses of a car leaving the unoccupied up for sale 1.5 million home.
February 14th, 2015 at 12:21 pm
@ tmaxcon
Yea……MW19 had a fire in his kitchen later denied by his Insurance Co……even negligence won’t be denied….must have been deliberate.
Lovie doesn’t like swearing or firestarters.
February 14th, 2015 at 12:24 pm
There is speed and then there is football speed. Also some guys will look great in shorts and no pads but throw on full battle rattle and they cant move as fluid or catch the ball as well. I think the combine is ok but game film is in my opinion a more accurate picture of what to expect on game days.
February 14th, 2015 at 12:29 pm
@rayjay1122
Jeff Demps……speed in space is great…if you can get to space….
February 14th, 2015 at 12:41 pm
@TBBF^^^^^^^ Very true!!!
February 14th, 2015 at 1:00 pm
@jeagan1999:
I was a huge Russell Wilson guy mainly because I watched him against some really good East Carolina defenses…..the time we beat NC State was when we knocked him out of the game…
Guy was really, really good, Seattle saw it, no one else did.
The true test of scouting is in rounds 4-7…..that’s where good teams find players who end up as special teams guys and good backups, sometimes starters as well.
February 14th, 2015 at 1:30 pm
After Leonard Williams blows up the combine………………….
February 14th, 2015 at 1:34 pm
@Tom Edrington
Exactly—I wonder if that was reason why– Lovie drafted physical phenom, Jarron Gilbert of San Jose State, at the top of the third round in 2009.
February 14th, 2015 at 1:35 pm
trading to the 3rd pick would be perfect….
extra pick
and either Jameis…Marcus…or Leonard
win win
February 14th, 2015 at 2:36 pm
I want to see the Bucs clear 5 – 10 million more on the salary cap and upgrade the O-line. We have a good start – http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/
and maybe enough to go after Suh or Hardy.
February 14th, 2015 at 2:45 pm
Philip Rivers NC State (Starter)
Mike Glennon NC State(Might get chance to Start)
Russell Wilso NC State/Wisconsin (Starter)
EJ Manuel FSU(Starter)
Matt Shaub UVA
Matt Ryan BC(Starter)
Mike Vick VT
Christian Ponder FSU
Teddy Bridgewater Louisville(Starter)
Thad Lewis Duke
Stephen Morris The U.
Ryan Nassib Syracuse
Sean Renfree Duke
Tom Savage Pittsburg
Tyrod Taylor VT
Logan Thomas VT
Charlie Whitehurst Clemson
T.J. Yates UNC
February 14th, 2015 at 3:08 pm
Sure, the most important thing is the play on the field and the tape that each player puts on film. Nonetheless, the Combine is an extremely valuable tool when it is used in combination with comparing it to the respective player that is being evaluated game tape. The combine also gives an up close and personal look at the players on the draft board and should be taken advantage of accordingly. Sure the combine by itself isn’t that useful, but when using it with all the other resources that teams have at their disposal to evaluate players it becomes an extremely valuable tool.
February 14th, 2015 at 3:58 pm
One could also say Lovie is a simple kinda guy
February 14th, 2015 at 4:49 pm
OB Says:
February 14th, 2015 at 11:33 am
Except for DBs, receivers, and maybe a back, who ever runs 40 yards in a game?
I would look at the 5, 10, 15 yard speeds. This is reaction based because you can be faster but slow to react and lose.
I would be more interested in how fast they can think and react under pressure. The great ones all do this.
—–
Ummmm, like anybody who has ever played special teams… DUH FREAKING DUH! Safeties routinely run 30 yards, RBs and TEs as well… LBs in coverage will also need to show straightline speed.
February 14th, 2015 at 4:51 pm
LUVMYBUCS Says:
February 14th, 2015 at 1:34 pm
@Tom Edrington
Exactly—I wonder if that was reason why– Lovie drafted physical phenom, Jarron Gilbert of San Jose State, at the top of the third round in 2009.
—————-
It was because Gilbert could jump out of a freaking pool and onto the pool deck while standing in it up to his waist…. funny, but the guy had freakish explosiveness…he just never learned to play ball at San Jose St or wherever it was he went to school.
February 14th, 2015 at 5:48 pm
Tom Edrington Says:
February 14th, 2015 at 11:46 am
No one wanted Tom Brady because when they saw him in his underwear at the combine, they saw a tall, skinny, gangly dude…..
LOL – I see what you did there Tom. Nice try. Glennon has some serious work in front of him to live up to that comparison.
February 14th, 2015 at 6:45 pm
Lovie sounds like a coach who knows what he take from the combine and uses what he wants to determine a particular prospects worst, it could be worse, he could be picking names out of empty MickeyD’s sweet tea cups like the bozos in Bristol.
February 14th, 2015 at 8:36 pm
Lovie is a coach period end of discussion.
February 15th, 2015 at 9:36 am
idiots don’t want us to draft Winston but are hoping we go after greg hardy? so if your accused of assault your cool but if your accused of rape then your a franchise wrecker hmmmm
February 15th, 2015 at 10:43 am
I don’t take Lovie’s point about a 4.9 WR up against a 5.1DB. Duh the coaches and scouts know ALL the players on both sides of the ball except perhaps for the opening game cakewalks against The Citadel and ETSU and MTSU.
But whenever a major college team is playing in conference or against another name conference opponent the speeds of all players are available.
IE When Jonathan Banks was getting scouted at MSU his speed may have been a question. But the coaches could see him on video up against some of the SEC’s fastest players.
There are PLENTY of valid comparisons to be made on video!!! Perhaps Licht has figured this out and Lovie has not. Let’s face evaluating talent is only part of being a head coach. But Lovie clearly does not possess that talent. But then neither did Chucky. You can still be an excellent head coach without that ability if you are comfortable enough in your own skin to find a great talent evaluating. Obviously a coach who can evaluate talent like Belichek has a big advantage over some who can’t like Chucky or Lovie but again if a Chucky/Lovie coach can find the right talent guy they can still win.
February 15th, 2015 at 10:53 am
“idiots don’t want us to draft Winston but are hoping we go after greg hardy? so if your accused of assault your cool but if your accused of rape then your a franchise wrecker hmmmm”
bucs4lyfe
I’m not on the Greg Hardy bandwagon but I do see a big difference. Not in the ONE set of charges you document. But in the PATTERN of Jameis boneheaded and arrogant moves.
Now if Hardy got caught on video yelling “smack her in the mouth” at the same time the domestic violence charges were taking place, then YES I’d be more worried about Hardy. IF Hardy has a pattern of abuse or bad decisions then YES I’d be terrified.
I believe AP will never touch another child, we can debate the cultural influences the lead him to do it to begin with but that’s irrelevant. Do we think AP has learned? Same for Ray Rice. Does he have a long history of smacking women? IF he does that would be horribly disconcerting. If not I believe he’s learned his lesson. How about Richie Incognito…does he have a long history of scumbaggery. ABSOLUTLEY. Richie should never play in the league.
What the Winstonnites do not seem to understand is that it’s the pattern. Too much time is wasted on the rape allegations. Let’s move past those for a moment. At the same time these allegations were swirling Jameis yells his infamous f her in the p remarks. He gets suspended for that and then shows up dressed out and has to be told by his coach to go back to the locker room.
We watched him yelling at his coach and his meltdown where the coach had to threaten to take him out of the game.
It’s not the serious nature of the charges against Fameis…the vast majority are actually not that serious. It’s the repeated lack of judgement. Combine that with the interceptions and that lack of judgement and it all adds up to red flags.
But i get that many believe Fameis talent outweighs the red flags. That’s a valid point of view. But please don’t jerk our chains pretending there’s no reason for concern.
February 15th, 2015 at 9:59 pm
I agree with Lovie, you can call them “Underwear Olympics” if you want, but if coaches didn’t think it was worth it, they wouldn’t attend.
I especially like the combining of results of different drills (as Lovie referenced). Pat Kiran’s book: “Take Your Eye Off The Ball” highlights the results of a couple of different combinations of drills (i.e., Production Index: Number of Sacks + Tackles for Loss Divided by Games Played or the Explosion Number: Bench Press Reps + Vert + Standing Broad Jump). That explosion number revealed that JJ Watt would be a great pick in ANY defensive alignment, even though he wasn’t the fastest in the 40…and why the Bill’s picked Marcel Dareus with the 3rd pick and Watt lasted till the Texan’s took him with the 11th pick.
NFL teams/coaches use different combinations of these results for the various requirements at each of the skill positions. So call it what you want, the guys who know what they’re looking for know exactly why each drill is run.