Overanalyzing
January 26th, 2015
Bucs fans are doing way too much reading between the lines to figure out the future.
Tampa Bay fans are eager for their team to rise from the ashes like a phoenix to burn the NFL next year.
Despite playing a lot of close games, the Bucs are a long, long, long way from being a good team. Way too many holes, including the most important, quarterback.
There is certainly a split faction when it comes to choosing a quarterback. There are the wet-nurses who believe Jameis Winston is some sort of neo-Charles Manson who will criminalize the entire Tampa Bay area and destroy their property values if he steps off a plane at Tampa International Airport May 1, no matter his pro-style talent.
Then there is the Marcus Mariota Gang who, despite all evidence — even from those who work in the NFL judging talent for a living — believe the very notion of a spread-option quarterback having a learning curve upon entering the NFL is nothing but hogwash and fairy tales.
So when the Bucs hire a quarterback coach — not a head coach, not an offensive coordinator, but a quarterback coach — who has a history of running a spread, way too many Bucs fans concluded the Bucs were going to draft Mariota at No. 1. Never mind he hasn’t gone through the combine yet, never mind he has a bum shoulder and never mind the Bucs haven’t even interviewed him yet.
Knock if off, says Joe’s old friend, “The Commish,” Justin Pawlowski of Scout.com. Just because a position coach has a history with a spread means nothing, Pawlowski said, and that Bucs fans should quit over-analyzing ever small move the Bucs make.
So, the #Bucs are going to take Mariota because of Koetter/Bajakian just like they were going to take Derek Carr because of Tedford? smh
— Justin Pawlowski (@CommishOnline) January 26, 2015
You know, that’s a helluva point. It sure seemed like a lot of folks were convinced Derek Carr was on his way to Tampa Bay after Bucs coach Lovie Smith hired Jeff Tedford, who is very close to the Carr family. Tedford tutored Derek Carr privately and coached his brother, David Carr, in college.
Joe is overanalyzing things, too, then Joe catches himself and remembers the Super Bowl hasn’t been played yet. So, so, so many things have to be processed before we can figure out with some degree of certainty what the Bucs will do with the No. 1 pick.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:06 pm
Despite his Oregon connection, every place Koetter has been (beginning at BC), he’s had a dropback passer.
Doesn’t mean anymore than the other speculation, but, that was the first thing that I noticed.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:16 pm
Everyone is guilty taking any piece of information and connecting the dots for either one of these guys. Everyone on here does it as well as the writers , analysts and talking heads. Then everyone gets mad at the other side for connecting dots that don’t fit with the guy they want to take, all getting annoying. Who knew after everyone celebrated us securing the top pick that we would be here today getting angry with one another or that this much speculation, destruction and character assassination would be taking place for both of these young men.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:21 pm
But Joe, If we don’t over analyze the #1 draft pick, we then have to over analyze how bad the Bucs and Lovie are!!!
January 26th, 2015 at 1:29 pm
For the longest time, I did not want Winston, but at this point, I don’t care anymore. I think it probably will be the best option for us and I hope he just grows up.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:32 pm
Since it does’nt matter who fans want drafted, I won’t get caught up with the drama of who the eventual selection might be. I trust the Bucs to make the right pick and will support that decision. I will remain positive and look forward to an improved team just like I have in all the Bucs past seasons.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:33 pm
Joe,
Most fans don’t think Winston will criminalize the entire Tampa area nor bring down the value of their homes. They are concerned about his very real off-field issues, and his maturity and the harm that could come to himself (and the ensuing PR nightmare). Unlike you, bucs fans don’t want drama, they just want a competitive team.
Similarly, the “Mariota gang” does not think he will wave a magic wand and Magically become a pocket passer, with no learning curve. Quite the contrary, they know he will take time to develop, but believe has more upside plus no baggage. You are dumbing it down.
January 26th, 2015 at 1:38 pm
@ unbelivable I agree whole heartedly
January 26th, 2015 at 1:52 pm
There is a reason why JP is just a ‘talking head’ and not a coach, and now you see why he’s just that, a Talk Head
January 26th, 2015 at 1:56 pm
“There are the wet-nurses who believe Jameis Winston is some sort of neo-Charles Manson who will criminalize the entire Tampa Bay area and destroy their property values if he steps off a plane at Tampa International Airport May 1, no matter his pro-style talent.”
That’s your cue Patrick – take it away….
January 26th, 2015 at 2:03 pm
@ Joe
The main reason that we all come on here to voice our opinions, have debates, and “overanalyze” everything is because we all love the Bucs and all want what we each think is the best for the team. We may disagree at times and get on each other, but we all want the same thing. And that’s a good thing for you as it builds up your clicks and hits and helps you sell all of this advertising space that clogs up our devices, re-directs us and haunts us with big black boxes. So let us do what we do and have our fun
January 26th, 2015 at 2:07 pm
I will be happy with the eventual choice……but only if its one of the twe QBs…..happy because I know the Bucs will most certainly “overanalyze” the decision. If there were ever a choice that needs to be overanalyzed…it is this one.
January 26th, 2015 at 2:12 pm
Give it a rest, the Derek Carr comparison is a stupid one for two reasons – Carr wasn’t considered a top 10 pick last year, so had he been around when the Bucs picked in the second round, he might well have been a Buc. We didn’t have that many picks in order to trade up.
Also, connecting the dots because they are a family friend (Carr/Tedford) and connecting the dots because a player fits the coached scheme (Mariota/Koetter) are two VERY different things.
Also, the Mariota fans connecting these dots is no different from the Winston fans saying the Bucs will draft him because he’s played in a pro style offense.
Saying allthat I’m convinced the Bucs pick Winston, even though I want us to draft Mariota, unless this documentary released on Friday puts them off.
January 26th, 2015 at 2:34 pm
One thing we “know” is that we have the first overall pick and we have our choice of the litter.
that’s what we do “know”.
January 26th, 2015 at 2:57 pm
I can’t imagine that BUCS Management has decided on their draft strategy for the # 1. Way too much to do in completing the analysis of their options…
January 26th, 2015 at 3:32 pm
too bad we didn’t get carr…
shoulda grabbed carr in the first and a receiver in the second.
January 26th, 2015 at 3:32 pm
then we could be arguing d-line or trading down
January 26th, 2015 at 4:25 pm
The new and Improved Jameis.. Improved Mechanics
http://www.thebaycave.com/video-of-winston-working-on-his-mechanics/
January 26th, 2015 at 4:28 pm
I believe I said that yesterday. 😉
January 26th, 2015 at 4:32 pm
Getting either QB with the 1st pick will not make us a playoff team in 2015. Maybe 2016. We have a ton of holes to fill. Which makes trading down more appealing. More picks equals more chances to get quality players to fill those holes.
As far as our OC and new QB coach. I have never said that meant we were drafting MM. I think we should draft MM cause he has a higher ceiling than Shameis and is a true leader of men on and off the field. Many different sports outlets have connected the dots saying we are going to take MM. I hope so, but I am not naïve enough to believe everything I hear.
And JOE, ANY rookie QB is going to have a learning curve. Even your dearly beloved Shameis. If he throws 17 ints in college imagine how many he can get us his rookie season…20?? 25?? 30?? Atleast MM knows how to protect the ball and not force passes cause he “thinks” he has the strength to fit it in there.
Also, I was a huge Derek Carr supporter, I still am. Signing Tedford had 0 to do with what I saw in the kid at Fresno State. He is going to be a very good QB for many years to come. Just like Mariotta will be. Talent is talent, no matter how you look at it.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:08 pm
@Lurker
I actually think that you are right about getting Carr and grabbing a WR in the 2nd last year. Probably would have traded down in the 1st and still been able to get Carr and a productive WR since it was a deep draft at WR. I am more than Ok with Evans though. But we could have addressed both needs. We did not need to use a 2nd round pick on a TE and a 3rd on a RB. I won’t ever figure that logic out.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:20 pm
Winston has far more potential than Carr.
Draft Winston and send lovie back to the basement that will fix the bucs.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:35 pm
Hey joe, you forget: Carr wasn’t a top 10 talent and Oakland took him a couple picks before us. We never had a chance so this means nothing.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:38 pm
@Joe
Awesome job again. lets call out the bucs fan for “over-analyzing”. Joe is always right, everyone is always wrong. I’m surprised there isn’t a link to an old article where Joe called it … was able to read the future that bucs fans would over react to the QB coach hire.
Dude, stop reading between the lines. –Joe
January 26th, 2015 at 5:40 pm
FYI this is also the same guy who projects the bucs to take mariota in his updated mock draft.
January 26th, 2015 at 5:46 pm
Although I think Winston is the clear choice, I think the Bucs are going to have to pass on him. I want to believe that Winston isn’t guilty, but his accuser isn’t backing down from her allegation and has now gone VERY public with it. Either she is completely insane and sadistic or there is something to this. I am thinking it might be the latter at this point. Whether he did it or not this cloud is never going to leave him. The documentary is being released a month before the draft and the girl will be all over theaters giving her account of what happened that night. As an added bonus she is even from Tampa. As much as I hate to say it I think they need to just take Gregory and try to get Hundley or Petty in the 2nd round.
January 26th, 2015 at 6:00 pm
don’t settle for hundley or petty, please!
why should she back down after getting paid?
January 26th, 2015 at 6:39 pm
I am not a believer in Mariota and he will be on the bench for two years minimum if he has any chance of success outside of Philly. Don’t know much about Petty or Hundley or next years crop of QBs that will be in the draft. I agree with @thecommish that the Glazers probably won’t want to deal with the issues that come with drafting Winston. I do think he will be a star one day though.
January 26th, 2015 at 7:42 pm
Doesn’t overanalyzing pay the bills, Joe?
January 26th, 2015 at 8:58 pm
Cool I’ll play the connect the dots/over-analysis game. Lovie believes a great defense can win 10 games, Lovie went 2-14 and needs to win next year, the dots connect to Lovie wanting Williams or Gregory at #1. The Glaziers believed the time was right to launch a new uniform design and hoped to sell lots of merchandise and season tickets, the Glaziers thought hiring Lovie would fill seats and empty warehouses (of new uniform/logo Buccaneers merch), Lovie went 2-14, Glaziers called down to Lovie to tank the last game so they could get Mariota or Winston (plan B to energize the fanbase after plan A dropped a deuce in their laps). So my connected dots say the next few months will be Lovie trying his damnedest to convince the Glaziers why they should let him draft Williams or Gregory with the #1 pick.
January 27th, 2015 at 12:28 am
And then theres the small minority who dont over analyze, who sees the game is won in the trenches, and who goes with Leonard Williams to solidify the D line, or trade back and work on the O line. I really just dont see #1 overall in Winston or Mariota…..BPA is Williams.
January 27th, 2015 at 1:31 am
Ever since Brooks came out talking about how Jameis and the Bucs will need a character development plan, has me thinking he thinks we are going Jameis…then again, more speculation based on what Joe is very well saying here. LOL
January 27th, 2015 at 7:12 am
The fact you need a character developmental plan, aka a baby sitter, how would you feel you comfortable trusting him?
January 27th, 2015 at 9:52 am
I dissagree with you quite alot mr. Patrick but that first post was well stated.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:04 am
The realist bucc,was jimmy johnson bad when he took over the dallas cowboys and proceeded to go 1 and 15 during his first season in big D? Of course not history has proven that. You recall this man going to the superbowl with rex grossman as QB right. You do recall this man winning doulble digit games 8 of his nine seasons in chicago right . Imagine what Lovie Smiths legacy would be had he had a franchise QB during his time in Chicago with that defense. Scary. All this Lovie bad bs. For Christ she the got man fired after going 10 and 6. Not to mention winning a ring as defensive quarternator for the Rams. And y’all wonder why he doesn’t takes questions from fans on the radio during the season. Go figure.
January 27th, 2015 at 10:12 am
Connecting dots,so none us should read into GM Jason liht saying that they are not looking for a choir boy and only mentioning one school during a 47 minute interveiw to end the season. Said school”Florida state university”.
January 27th, 2015 at 12:27 pm
To be fair, I do think the Bucs would have selected Carr if he was available in the 2nd round. Knowing the team had plenty of holes to fill and having already lost a draft choice in the Revis trade, I don’t think the new regime wanted to trade up for anyone. If Carr was there, I think he would have been the guy, and I think the Bucs would have then traded Glennon to the Cardinals for a mid round pick.
Once that boat sailed, the Bucs kept Glennon around since they missed out on Carr and grabbed ASJ. At the end of the day, it’s pretty much a moot point. The Bucs own the number one pick and you better believe that both QBs are being considered. It’s still very early and a lot can happen before draft day, so any report about the Bucs leaning one way or another is pure speculation at best.
January 27th, 2015 at 12:55 pm
Can’t argue with that last post.
January 27th, 2015 at 5:24 pm
“Despite his Oregon connection, every place Koetter has been (beginning at BC), he’s had a dropback passer.”
Except for Jacksonville where he was part of a team that spent a 1st rounder on spread-QB Blaine Gabbert. But hey, who’s counting?
January 27th, 2015 at 6:23 pm
Just imagine how much better we would have been if we had drafter Johnny Football like you wanted, Joe.
Thinking of that, it’s a wonder why anyone supports your desire to bring Winston in here.