Jameis Watch: Exonerated
December 22nd, 2014
Crab-legs-stealing, BB-gun-shooting, obscenity-hollering, Heisman-Trophy-winning, national champion James Winston, the pride of Florida State University, continues to look like a much better quarterback prospect than Mike Glennon and Josh McCown.
It’s Joe’s daily nugget on the Jameis Watch, celebrating the best quarterback to wear No. 5 ever in the state of Florida.
In case you were so drunk from trying to purge that feces of a Bucs offense out of your hard drive and missed it, Florida State quarterback (and hopefully future Bucs quarterback) Jameis Winston was cleared in his code-of-conduct hearing Sunday.
The juror in the case, former Florida Supreme Court Justice Major Harding, studied over 1,000-pages of evidence, and hours of testimony from witnesses.
In short, Harding didn’t think the accuser had a leg to stand on. Below is the letter Harding wrote to Winston, courtesy of the Tallahassee Democrat, detailing his findings:
Mr. Winston:
I, Major B. Harding, have been appointed to sit as the hearing body in your student conduct case. You have been charged with the following four violations of section 6C2R-3.004(1 )(e) ofthe Florida State University Student Conduct Code:
I. Sexual Misconduct.
a. Any sexual act that occurs without the consent of the victim, or that occurs when the victim is unable to give consent. Consent is defined as the willing and clear participation in the sexual act. Inability to give consent includes but is not limited to situations where the individual is:
i. under the influence of alcohol, drugs or other substances (including but not limited to prescribed medications); ii. unconscious, asleep, ill or in shock; iii. under the age of eighteen and therefore legally incapable of giving consent; or
iv. known by reason of impairment, mental condition or developmental or physical disability to be reasonably unable to give consent.
Consent is not freely given if no clear verbal consent is given; if the individual is not able to give consent or if consent is achieved through force, threat of force, or coercion. Consent to one form of sexual activity does not imply consent to other forms of sexual activity. Consent is not the lack of resistance; there is no duty to fight in order to indicate lack of consent. Consent can be withdrawn at any time, as long as the withdrawal is clearly communicated by the person withdrawing consent through words or actions.
c. Conduct of a sexual nature that creates an intimidating, hostile, or offensive environment for another person. This includes unwanted, unwelcome, inappropriate, or irrelevant sexual or gender-based behaviors, actions or comments.
2. Endangerment.
a. Physical violence towards another person or group.
b. Action(s) that endanger the health, safety, or well-being of another person or group.
The burden of proof in all cases under the Code is the preponderance of the evidence and rests with the University. Stated another way, the evidence must show that it is more probable than not that you are responsible for the charged violations. After a thorough review, the evidence before me does not satisfy this threshold and, therefore, you are not responsible for the aforementioned charged violations.
Evidence Considered
The investigative hearing materials consisted of over 1,000 pages of documents as well as electronically stored data. In addition, substantial training materials were provided, and I have reviewed the same. The parties were each afforded the opportunity to supplement the record and availed themselves of such an opportunity. In making my determination, I reviewed and considered the investigative healing materials; the supplemental materials submitted by the parties; witness testimony received at the hearing; and exhibits 1-5, 9, and 10 admitted without objection at the hearing. My determination is based solely on this evidence.
Advisor for (accuser) objected to the admission of proposed exhibits 6, 7, and 8 on the basis that they were not timely submitted prior to the hearing. I deferred ruling, and the exhibits were numbered for reference at that time. The parties were given deadlines by which to submit supplemental materials. You and your advisor were aware of this deadline and timely submitted other supplemental materials, but proposed exhibits 6, 7, and 8 were not submitted. As such, these proposed exhibits were permitted to be used as demonstrative aids at the hearing but are not admitted into evidence. I have not considered them. Regardless, proposed exhibits 6, 7, and 8 to be relevant to the narrow issues before me, and their admission would have had no bearing on my determination.
Findings and Application of Fact
It is undisputed that you and (accuser) had sexual intercourse in the late evening and/or early moming (sic) hours of December 6 and 7, 2012, respectively. The focal point, however, is whether that and/or other sexual activity was consensual; whether you engaged in sexual conduct that created an intimidating, hostile, or offensive environment; or whether you engaged in physical violence or other conduct which endangered another person.
The Code defines consent “as the willing and clear participation in the sexual act.” The Code elsewhere states that “consent is not freely given if no clear verbal consent is given.” Historically, in student conduct cases where consent is disputed, consent has been considered in light of all of the circumstances, verbal and nonverbal. This is a reasonable interpretation and application of the Code.
The sequence of events began at Potbelly’s on the evening of December 6, 2012. During the course of the evening, (accuser) met and gave her phone number to one of your acquaintances, Mr. Casher. You testified that you subsequently danced with (accuser) for a period of time. Mr. Jordan stated that he saw her dancing with a black male.
As closing time approached, (accuser) was with her friend Ms. Kessler. Ms. Kessler testified that (accuser) received a text message from a number not saved in her contacts, presumably a new number, asking her to meet them outside. (accuser) showed the text message to Ms. Kessler. Ms. Kessler indicated to (accuser) that she could go if she wanted, and (accuser) left.
You likewise testified, albeit after having ample time to review the previous statements of Ms. Kessler and (accuser), that you texted (accuser), and she came outside to meet you. (accuser) denied knowledge of the text message, and no such text message could be found. Investigator Newlin testified, however, that the inability to find the text message did not preclude its existence and that there were several issues which could have prevented its retrieval.
You, Mr. Casher, and Mr. Darby each stated that (accuser) voluntarily got into a cab with you to leave Potbelly’s. The evidence further shows that the area outside of Potbelly’s, where (accuser) met you and got into the cab, was active with other students, bar security, and cabs at that time. (accuser) testified that while she did not physically resist or seek help her conduct was not voluntary because she was intimidated and/or scared of the consequences of not cooperating and getting in the cab. (accuser) provided the same response as to why she did not seek help from the cab driver or physically resist or seek help when leaving the cab.
(Accuser)’s beliefs and mental state could have affected her decision making. Further, (accuser) did not identify any evidence that you acted in a manner that would reasonably justify her developing such beliefs. The evidence is undisputed that people were present, but (accuser) did not seek help. This lack of evidence, among other things, is relevant to the charged violations of physical violence and endangerment.
(Accuser)’s statements concerning the night’s events have changed over time, but one point on which she has remained steadfast is that once in your room that you had sexual intercourse with her and that she did not consent to or actively participate in the sexual intercourse. (accuser) stated that she told you no and/or to stop and that Mr. Darby, who she identified by his dreadlocks, came into the room and told to you stop as well. She stated that you subsequently carried her into your bathroom, locked the door, and proceeded to continue sexual intercourse against her will. (Accuser) stated that she continued to plea for you to stop when in the bathroom and that she tried to resist you at this point but that you pinned her down.
You, however, vehemently contradict (accuser)’s recitation of the night’s events. You testified that once in your room that you and (accuser) engaged in foreplay and that you asked for, and (accuser) willingly performed, oral sex on you. You further testified that you retrieved a condom, that (accuser) assisted you in putting on the condom, and that (accuser) was an active participant in the sexual intercourse that followed. You testified that (accuser)’s physical actions and statements during the sexual intercourse demonstrated its consensual nature and that she at no time told you no, told you to stop, or objectively demonstrated any objection.
You testified that Mr. Casher came into the room and that (accuser) told Mr. Casher no and to get out and/or leave, but that these statements were never directed at you. Mr. Casher admits that it was he, and not Mr. Darby, who entered your room, and Mr. Casher was found responsible for doing so at his own student conduct hearing. The statements of Mr. Casher and Mr. Darby, although based on brief observations, are consistent with your recitation of events. While the statements of Mr. Casher and Mr. Darby differed on certain points, their main observations have remained consistent.
You testified that (accuser), following Mr. Casher having entered the room and the door being pushed open, asked if there was somewhere more private. Namely, you indicated that (accuser) wanted to continue to have sexual intercourse with you, and that was the reason you both went into the bathroom where you continued to have sexual intercourse. Although Mr. Casher made a statement as to what he thought he heard, you and (accuser) are the only persons with personal knowledge as to what actually happened in the bathroom.
The medical exam and testimony of the SANE nurse, Ms. Walker, who performed (accuser)’s exam are inconclusive. Ms. Walker reported that (accuser) had vaginal tenderness and redness that could be consistent with either a sexual assault or consensual sexual intercourse. Likewise, the reported bruises, to the extent received on the night in question, are not necessarily inconsistent with the particular evidence of consensual sexual activity in this case.
It is undisputed that immediately after your sexual encounter with (accuser) that you gave (accuser) a ride home on your scooter at which time she had to hug and hang on to you. Later, (accuser)’s friends indicated that shortly thereafter and the following day that (accuser) was hesitant to be touched or hugged.
As summarized in the preceding paragraphs, the evidence regarding the events that unfolded between you and (accuser) once in your room is irreconcilable. In light of all of the circumstances, I do not find the credibility of one story substantially stronger than that of the other. Both have their own strengths and weaknesses. I cannot find with any confidence that the events as set forth by you, (accuser), or a particular combination thereof is more probable than not as required to find you responsible for a violation of the Code. Therein lies the determinative factor of my decision.
You and your advisor have asserted that (accuser) intentionally fabricated an elaborate lie, but I am not prepared to conclude as much. A person’s mental state, whether it be the result of trauma, stress, anxiety, or the like, can affect the person’s memory which can possibly improve with time. In fact, this is a matter addressed in the training of hearing bodies. This issue was also addressed by Ms. Walker and Ms. Chatfield, a victim’s advocate who worked with (accuser). There is evidence that (accuser) was in such a state of mind following her encounter with you although I cannot conclude by a preponderance of the evidence that this encounter was nonconsensual and the sole basis for any such trauma.
Although there is much evidence regarding the amount of alcohol consumed by (accuser), whether and by whom (accuser) was given a shot, and whether (accuser) had been drugged, lab reports show that there were no known drugs in (accuser)’s system and that her blood alcohol level was within reason. Moreover, (accuser) stated that she was not intoxicated, and the consensus among witnesses was that (accuser), while having been drinking, was never at a level that impacted her decision-making abilities.
In closing, I have thoroughly reviewed and considered everything on the record before me and assigned it the relevance and weight I feel it deserved. Further, to the extent that objections were made to the hearing procedures on the record or in the hearing briefs, these matters have been preserved.
Conclusion
This was a complex case, and I worked hard to make sure both parties had a full and fair opportunity to present information. In sum, the preponderance of the evidence has not shown that you are responsible for any of the charged violations of the Code. Namely, I find that the evidence before me is insufficient to satisfy the burden of proof.
Sincerely,
Major B. Harding
Joe thinks now that this matter is closed, the rancor and rampant character assasination of this young man ought to stop. Now.
Sadly, Joe knows it won’t.
December 22nd, 2014 at 6:53 pm
Yeah….until he signs a $$$$$$$ Contract….then they’ll be lining up …taking numbers
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:04 pm
Winston=BUST. He is too careless with the ball for one as he throws interceptions. Yeah he has led come from behind wins at the college level that he was partially responsible for in the first place. I really hope we do not gamble on him. His downsides far outweigh his upsides. Then add in the behavioral issues. We need a talented leader at QB. Just my opinion though.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:06 pm
“Joe thinks now that this matter is closed, the rancor and rampant character assasination of this young man ought to stop. Now.
Sadly, Joe knows it won’t”. Well played, Joe.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:10 pm
With the first pick of the 2015 NFL draft… It’s time to put all of this negative jameis talk to rest. I’m not saying he’s innocent but you have to prove that someone is guilty. I think once he’s out of college and surrounds himself with NFL vets, the maturation process will follow. He’s a proven winner and from the looks of it he’s a great leader and one hell of an athlete. Lovie smith and guys like GMC lavonte David and Vincent jackson are good guys n the nfl and should do a good job mentoring him but it’s time for him to grow up mentally if he wants to succeed
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:11 pm
It’s not right that females can randomly throw out the rape accusations without having to suffer any repercussions.
It’s a little like the old Spanish Inquisition days where you were accused of being a witch.
We have found you to be a witch.
We will tie yours hands behind your back and throw you in the water.
If you drown, then you were not a witch.
If you live then you are a witch and will be burned at the stake.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:11 pm
Lovie will not draft him, period.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:14 pm
Lovie’ Watch : Not Exonerated
Actually the Tampa media has ,strangley, not even started the Lovie Watch….I guess these wise scribes can see something …but won’t tell anyone WHY LOVIE should NOT be FIRED…
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:18 pm
Can we draft O’leary while we’re at it? But than again not sure I want a national champion who’s undefeated in 28 games to play for us. He might not be a nice guy and he might win some games. Better stick with mccown to avoid any negative press or a winning season. Yea that’s safe!
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:19 pm
It is ashame we live in a society where someone is guilty until proven innocent. Since Winston didn’t assume responsibility or the accuser didn’t change her accusations, I’m sure he will still be viewed as just getting away with it.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:20 pm
I want which ever of these two is NOT a bust.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:20 pm
I feel like I need a bath in Clorox after reading this.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:28 pm
You know, you people act like you know which of the two will be great…if either one is. The truth is, you don’t. Neither do I. There is never a guarantee.
You can watch all the tape, study the histories, interview all the right people, but in the end, it is a crap shoot.
Seriously…do you really think Andrew Luck was a sure thing? He wasn’t. There was a risk with him just like anyone else. In fact, during that draft, many voiced that same thing.
After he played a season? All those same guys changed their tunes and claimed they knew he would be great.
All I know is this…if we are in a position to pick one of these two guys, we have to do it. It’s that simple.
If we pick second and only have the choice of one, we take him. If we have our choice of two, the choice is more challenging, but its still 50-50.
It doesn’t get simpler than that. We need a Elite, Franchise Quarterback, and we will never get one if we don’t pick high. Yes, teams have gotten them in later rounds or even undrafted, but in ALL of those cases, they were by teams that have a history of knowing QBs. We don’t.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:32 pm
Joe, ur website keeps directing me to countless apps. Its p!ssin me off. Especially the flippin lyft app
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:32 pm
DB55,
Yeah, why would you want a winner on your team? He more than likely is a serial killer in disguise.
I went to an FSU vs Stetson baseball game earlier this year.
Got there about an hour early.
Winston was on the outfield fence surrounded by fans signing anything put in his hand. From FSU gear to Stetson gear.
From footballs to baseballs.
He was scary looking to me.
He would probably still be there signing but the team manager finally got him out of there so they could start the game.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:40 pm
If Joe is pushing for Winston, that means we should draft Mariota, sorry Joe but you haven’t been the best of quarterback evaluators… Johnny Hamstring looks TERRIBLE. There’s talk in Cleveland that they might have to draft another quarterback because Manziel is light years away from being “pro ready”. Thank God that’s one mistake we didn’t make. Taking him at 7 would’ve set this team back a long long time. Mariota to Evans has a nice ring to it! 🙂
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:41 pm
chris mortenssen on espn today said the people he has spoken to are projecting jameis winston to be drafted overall number 1,2, or 3 in the 1st round.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:43 pm
I’ve watched Winston in his last 4 games and he’s been averaging 2.5 ints per game, and thats against college level defenses. If he can’t read college defenses how is he going to all of a sudden master reading complex NFL defenses? This is your guy? really? I’m not sold on him yet. Maybe the Bowl game will help me decide, but from what I have noticed lately is that Winston has to be surrounded with playmaking talent and a good offensive line to succeed.
When his o-line struggles so does he by taking to many unnecessary risk.
When his o-line is clicking Winston will pick you apart, but given time most NFL QB’s can pick you apart. I personally don’t think he’s the best NFL ready QB in this draft. Our offensive line will be a big fat ? mark again next season, and will not bode well for Winston if he can’t read NFL coverages and make lightning quick decisions.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:43 pm
Dave Pear
I feel ya, he is a slacker he should be running laps instead of catering to fans. Have you seen that smile of his? It scream pedo to me. And did you hear that he once looked at a girls rear end as she walked by him. Unacceptable just can’t have someone with that type of character on this team. It would diminish our value and might embarrass us. I mean what would the league think? Geez
I’m glad I have your support dave.
Btw you’ve become one of my favorite posters. Your chit is hilarious. I hope you know 90% of what I say is pure sarcasm. Peace
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:45 pm
Would love to be a fly on the wall when NFL GM’s have their way with him (Winston) in the interview sessions…..
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:46 pm
WINSTON, nuff said!!!
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:49 pm
@DB55 Poe’s Law is strong with you.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:50 pm
DB55,
Thanks, right back at you.
I get your sarcasm.
In the end we are ALL Buc fans and would like to be proud to wear our gear again.
Instead of people saying, ” You’re a Buc fan”? Why?
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:52 pm
What you think we running a soup kitchen around here? You think joe is made of gold? You’ll get them and you’ll like’em.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:54 pm
No soup for you!!!
In a sad note…Joe Cocker died today.
Flags should be at half mast.
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:54 pm
Jim
I had to look that up. Thanks
December 22nd, 2014 at 7:58 pm
Dave
Took my gear with me on the cruise, sat down with a Bears fan and completely insulted him for being a Lovie fan. The pats fan sitting with us spit up his beer and walked away after thanking me for Talib Blount and wright.
#Bucslifebaby
#Goodboysforlife
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:10 pm
Both of the Heismans are legitimate NFL prospects. Heismans have performed so poorly over the years that the phrase “Heisman Curse” arose. The curse has been particularly cruel to QB’s.
That was then this is now and I’m not superstitious. Grab one of the Heismans with the 1st or 2nd. I think BOTH of them are legitimate “prospects”…key word prospects.
Here’s the deal Joe!!! You stop leading us with crab leg stealing…bb gun shooting…and we’ll start focusing the debate on the two major questions.
1st. Take one of the Heismans or use that top pick to leverage a bunch of great picks.
2nd If we decide to take a QB which one?
I lean to Mariota…seems like his release is a big quicker..he more closely resembles Rogers…Jameis is stronger and has more of the “it” factor than Mariota.
They both have incredible physical talent, wonderful records, and IMHO they are both very smart players who will learn quickly and play next year…and decently by the end of the season….IF we get the right OC.
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:15 pm
Good for Winston. Now draft Mariota.
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:29 pm
I will say what I’ve said before. First, if we get the #1 overall mariota. If we get #2, I say we trade for all of the picks we can get and move on. Winston is too risky on the field, let alone off it. I would not draft him. If most bucs fans were not in Florida, including joe, we would not be making excuses for him. Winston has horrible footwork, played poor competition, is difficult to coach and seems to be color blind judging by his last 4 games.
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:32 pm
@stpete, really like your last post, well said.
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:35 pm
Bill Clinton , OJ Simpson and Bill Cosby didn’t do it either….
But seriously, this is not going to matter after the draft anyways because he will most likely be someone else concern… Much like last years Johnny watch…
Lovie’s history has shown he sticks with veterans or rather “his” guy…. He will probably go after a QB that is already in the league rather than draft a QB… Think about it, he wouldn’t bench McCown no matter how bad he played…. WHY?
December 22nd, 2014 at 8:42 pm
St Pete, the thing I disagree with is the “it” factor. It almost never transfers to the nfl. Tebow, Russell, Geno Smith, Barley, Tim Couch, kapernick, Sanchez, RGIII all were supposed to have it. Fans were encouraged to overlook their fundamentals and focus on their ability to “will” a team to win. Doesn’t work in the nfl, unless you are Russell Wilson. I don’t want Winston because most are writing off his issues by claiming” he is a winner”. I don’t believe he will be at the next level.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:05 pm
Joe, I’m hoping you’ll stop the daily Winston updates!
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:06 pm
@Bucnut
Totally take your point about the “it” factor. It decreases dramatically in the NFL simply because it’s no longer college kids but grown men “playing a game” for a living.
My major on field concern with Jameis is his motion. I like a really quick release. Was Aaron Rodgers a thing of beauty. But then I grew up a Joe Namath fan and I love quick releases. I also think Mariota is better on the run but Jameis has talent there as well. I think he’ll run more like Cam Newton with more power and less speed than Mariota.
Again Bucnut to be honest my major concern is not just WHO the new OC is but whether the Glazers quietly hamstring Lovie and force a creative, high powered offense OC with NFL experience and success.
I just think Dungyball/Lovieball is not the best way to go any more with the league doing everything it can to encourage offense. Too many rules changes have limited the effectiveness of Dungyball.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:12 pm
Hey StPete,
Have a very Happy Birthday tomorrow!
Don’t have too much Vodka and don’t be hitting that bowl too hard.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:25 pm
It really is. And they will be, they are guaranteed a top two. But, I’d love to have the top one and get my choice. And just hope you don’t get the Ryan Leif instead of the Peyton Manning.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:30 pm
Hey Dave Pear
THANKS! I’ve got some Vodka in the freezer already and as for the rest I”ll let you use your imagination. 🙂
I’ll be 67 and for you young dudes I’m here to say it’s all good. The main thing that has me excited about my birthday tomorrow night is that I’m going to “get lucky”.. How cool is that? The more things change the more they stay the same.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:31 pm
StPete,
Nice. Have a really good time and Merry Christmas too.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:33 pm
Does anyone compare Winston to Steve McNair, because that’s who he reminds me of. I also remember the Bucs defense always struggled with him. Mariotta, just not sure of, but I know WE HAVE TO DRAFT A QB
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:44 pm
it is so nice that there are many more fans that believe we should draft a qb, unlike last year.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:47 pm
aquib talib doing well again. another ex-buc that is performing.
seems that when we were in our heyday our incoming free agents outperformed the players we let go. not so for many years now.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:53 pm
Happy birthday St Pete. Did you say you are going to be 69? Errrr. Lol
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:55 pm
Honestly I say anyone we pick up this year must have an arrest record. I’m just half kidding.
December 22nd, 2014 at 9:58 pm
DavePear Merry Christmas to you as well and Merry Christmas to all.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:06 pm
Reminds me of myself.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:11 pm
Winston or Mariota need to be on our roster next year. It really doesn’t matter that much.
We don’t need to try to be clever with the number 1 overall pick.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:12 pm
Thanks Joe for another Jameis Winston(my favorite QB in the draft) update. It was greatly appreciated.
Go Noles.
Go Saints.
Lose Bucs, just lose.
Merry Christmas everyone. The Bucs are going to have the FIRST overall pick in the draft. They better NOT ef this up, like they have our season.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:17 pm
87
There he is. I was wondering where you been. Merry Christmas kid.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:19 pm
I agree about having an arrest record. Ha ha ha.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:22 pm
Lurker, I wouldn’t have drafted anyone from last year either. I didn’t think any of the QBs were NFL ready and they were all development QBs and none of them should have played this year. Carr is the only one doing well in my eyes.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:24 pm
Again, I will play conspiracy theorist here. Saints tank the game so we don’t get the #1 pick. They trade up and take a QB before us because of the talk of wanting a QB to develop under Brees. What better time than this year? We could have both Mariota and Winston in the NFC South.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:29 pm
I think we pick Mariota if we have the first pick…..I think we pass on Winston with our first pick….but would take him later in the draft……not saying we should pass on him at 2….just that we will.
Pushing for Winston made more sense earlier because it was looking like we would be picking 4th or 5th and Mariota wouldn’t be there.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:35 pm
Whoever is desparate enough to draft Turd Winston will come to regret it very quickly
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:36 pm
NO TOP PICK FOR BUCS! TITANS ARE GETTING IT!
Thanks to a nine-game slide, the Titans (2-13) are in line for the top overall pick in next spring’s draft. They hold the edge on equally inept Tampa Bay because of strength — uh, make that weakness — of schedule.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:44 pm
Happy Birthday, StPeteBucsFan!
My dad has always said, “There’s two great things that happen every day. You wake up, in the morning, and you’re still alive to go to bed at night. Everything in between is gravy”.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:46 pm
Thanks for the great info Joe. Hopefully the “character” questions about Jameis Winston will be put to rest as the other stuff is no biggy IMO.
I have only watched a couple Oregon games this year – so am not well versed in Mariota’s overall capabilities at the College level. From what I’ve seen – he looks really good and his athleticism and running ability stands out. His passing stats are out of this world. I somewhat wonder how much the competition level he has faced and the system he runs has to do with those passing stats though. The big question in my mind is – how well will Mariota be able to translate his assets to the NFL level?
Winston however is a different story from my perspective. I have watched many FSU games last year and this – and my opinion is that the kid is a flat out stud QB. He has it all. Everything you look for in a QB. Size, Strength, VERY strong arm, a gunslinger’s fearless mentality – and while he doesn’t have Mariota’s speed or elusiveness as a runner – Winston’s running ability – either to get a 1st down when necessary – or to extend the play by moving around to buy time for receivers to get open – is really good – better than most give him credit for.
The Winston “IT” factor that people mention is for real. He flat out does whatever is needed to win football games. He will carry a team on his back to victory if necessary and has proved himself capable of doing so many times this year. Last year was easy. FSU was just way more talented than other teams they played. Not so much this year with so many players from last year’s Seminole team going to the NFL. It will be interesting to see how FSU plays vs Oregon and then Bama if they can get past the Ducks.
IMO though based on all I have seen – Jamies Winston is the best QB prospect to come out since Luck and has a very high probability of becoming a top 10 QB in the NFL.
I will defer to the people at One Buc Place who supposedly know more about football than this longtime football fan – and not be disappointed if Bucs scouts and brass feel that drafting Mariota is in the best interest of the team – but I am really hoping we draft Jameis Winston in the first and then spend a # of the following picks on OL prospects.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:47 pm
GATORBUC17?
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:48 pm
Port richey
Sad part is I think you’re absolutely right. Lovie is so inept he can’t even get losing right and we’ll still pick #2.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:54 pm
here is my conspiracy theory.
Tedford wanted Derek Carr but Lovie passed him up for ASJ. Stupid I know. He told tedford were playing w mccown. After a 56-0 blow out they had words tedford has a panic attack or heart issue. Lovie said stay home bc I won’t be questioned. Or something close to that.
Tedfords facepalm said it all.
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:55 pm
port richey george Says:
December 22nd, 2014 at 10:36 pm
NO TOP PICK FOR BUCS! TITANS ARE GETTING IT!
The only way the Titans get the #1 pick is if the Bucs win and the Titans lose. Any other scenario and the Bucs have the #1 pick locked up.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:35 pm
carr was gone before bucs picked, but we coulda had him with our first pick and gotten just as good a receiver in the second.
carr doing really well this year. bridgewater making strides. he played well yesterday…small hands…lol. bortles better than anyone we have now.
shoulda/coulda picked a qb last year and gotten a de or oline high this year.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:47 pm
Dang Joe, posted the whole letter. You really want this guy, even though he will incarcerate himself out of the league.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:50 pm
Lurker
damn you’re right, missed him by 2 picks.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:52 pm
Damn. Peyton Manning makes this game look easy.
A little pitch and catch.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:57 pm
it is going to suck if the raiders turn it around before us! their first 2 picks will be the cornerstones of their team.
December 22nd, 2014 at 11:58 pm
I don’t know if any of you guys golf but, Peyton makes being a good QB look as easy as pro golfers make the game of golf look.
I rarely hit a sand wedge 110 yards but, when I do I’m always in a green side bunker.
Stay thirsty my friends.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:07 am
i don’t know about bunkers or sand wedges, but that damn windmill always gets me!
😉
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:16 am
You will be disappointed.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:52 am
There wasn’t enough to even ATTEMPT a conviction.
December 23rd, 2014 at 5:22 am
I have not heard one pro evaluater say he will not win at the nfl level. They all seem to love him on the field. Also, how is the ducks schedule any harder than the flu schedule? Also, the acc played pretty well,against the sec this year, so maybe the comprise not as bad as you guys think.
December 23rd, 2014 at 5:36 am
Not all, but a lot of his interceptions were busted routs by his receivers, so said Jimbo Fisher!
December 23rd, 2014 at 8:06 am
I hope the Bucs are smart enough to draft Jameis Winston. For some reason I have my doubts.
December 23rd, 2014 at 8:15 am
Suck it haters
December 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 am
I don’t think exonerated means what you think it means.
December 23rd, 2014 at 9:00 am
Did someone say Winston was playing against poor talent? Obviously they dont know that Oregon plays in the pac 12 north not the south probably the worst division in college football smdh. And I’m a bucs fan in VA so there is no Florida bias for me. Stop watching the highlights and start watching Oregon play his small receivers run free and are wide open all he does his hit them in stride. That’s why they struggle in the redzone because those same windows shrink and he can’t throw with the anticipation of a Jaboo Winston
December 23rd, 2014 at 9:44 am
“meh Says:
December 23rd, 2014 at 8:42 am
I don’t think exonerated means what you think it means.”
You’re right, three separate entities determined her claim were so questionable that it wasn’t even worthy of getting to the next stage.
December 23rd, 2014 at 10:54 am
Yeah, because Winston playing powerhouses like NC State, Wake Forest, Citadel, VA, Boston college, are great competition. I’ll throw in a terrible Florida team as well. I think ND was the only team you played that was ranked in the top 20 and they sucked. I guess I can give you the ACC title game as GT was ranked 11th.
Oregon played against MSU, Arizona, UCLA, Utah(9-4), and they played 4 teams ranked in the top 20. 2 of them being in the Top 10.
So don’t give us this crap about Winston playing anybody or Oregon not.
December 23rd, 2014 at 11:15 am
“So don’t give us this crap about Winston playing anybody or Oregon not.”
I realize it was 11 months ago, but, even when Winston and FSU beats the SEC champ, people don’t give him credit.
A year of blowouts – “He hasn’t been challenged”
A year of close wins – “He has shown no ‘game control’ ”
It doesn’t matter. Whether people don’t give him credit on the field, or hate him off the field, it doesn’t matter.
He and FSU could dominate Oregon and Mariotta, I guarantee people will say it’s a fluke, or they need to beat an SEC team (see: 2013).
December 23rd, 2014 at 11:56 am
People just look at interception totals and think that’s a sign of reading defenses or being accurate… HAHAHAHA. There are so many factors that go into INTs. You know who has the NFL record for most INTs? Brett Favre. I’d say he could read defenses pretty well.
The INTs don’t scare me at all. Jameis is supremely confident in his arm, sometimes to a fault for sure, but he’s also working with not one but two true freshman WRs who quit on routes, a patchwork offensive line with a freshmen center (before the Erving switch a few weeks back), and an ultra aggressive system that calls for many throws down the field.
Jameis certainly needs to refine his game and hit check-downs more, but no QB in college football can sit in the pocket and read defense like him. Period. He is big time and the Bucs will rue the day they pass on this kid, if they do.
December 23rd, 2014 at 12:08 pm
“Yeah, because Winston playing powerhouses like NC State, Wake Forest, Citadel, VA, Boston college, are great competition.”
This year (using f+), FSU played the 10th toughest slate of offenses, and the #1 rated toughest slate of defenses.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff
Ranking in the last column. Oregon was was #20 and #33, respectively.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:30 pm
KJ, Mariota throws more than Winston does. So that would mean that Mariota is in an ultra ultra aggressive system?
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:34 pm
Love and Warrick, FSU was dominant last year no doubt about it. This year though? I can’t say the same thing. They have had things go there way. Defense stepped up in some situations, Cook ran wild at other times to save them. Winston had a few times were he won the game. And your spill about freshmen is old and tired.
“FSU has already used more than 60 percent of its highly-regarded freshmen class in one form or another this season and will continue to count on the first-year players against Oregon. The Seminoles’ true freshmen have recorded 1,807 yards from scrimmage this season — 31.9 percent of FSU’s total yards from scrimmage — giving a boost to an offense that lost some crucial pieces to the NFL Draft earlier this year.”
“Oregon has used more than 50 percent of its freshman class, with running back Royce Freeman leading the way with 1,299 rushing yards and 17 total touchdowns. The Ducks lost four starters — offensive tackle Tyler Johnstone, receiver Bralon Addison, tight end Pharaoh Brown and most recently All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu — for the season with knee injuries. As a result, the Ducks have also called on true or redshirt freshmen.”
Both teams use freshmen. Stop making excuses for Winston. He has made terrible decisions when throwing the ball. Mariota hasn’t.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:40 pm
Winston was responsible for bringing the Noles back and winning. At crunch time he makes no mistakes and makes big plays.
He plays in a pro style offense.
Take a look at the throws the guy makes. Way better than Mariota.
Tune in on the 1st and see for yourself.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:49 pm
I said he was responsible for some of the comebacks, but not all. Cook and the Defense are responsible for more than him. However, he always put them in a hole. He starts off slow every game. You can’t do that in the NFL. Also, he doesn’t play a pro style offense. If you consider taking snaps from under center to be pro style you are mistaken.
Mariota has a quicker release and is more fluid in his motions than Winston is. Winston might have a stronger arm, but not sure on that as some of his throws sail on him.
December 23rd, 2014 at 1:58 pm
@Joe
Did my post with links to football outsiders with the f+ rankings get blocked? I probably posted it an hour ago. It’s hard to comment when stuff shows up on such a delay.
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:17 pm
@Skyline
You are the only person that doesn’t attach pro-style with a Jimbo Fisher offense. Does he run out of shotgun or a pistol sometimes? Certainly, but, even a cursory search of scouts and football writers on Google shows pro-style, time and time again. Perhaps you are right and the scores and scores of others who are in the profession are wrong.
Take a look at the f+ rankings I posted earlier. Mariota threw against far lower ranked defenses than Winston did this year.
Greg Bedard’s most recent piece illustrates how far ahead Winston is from running the offense that he does, vs. Mariota’s spread.
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:20 pm
I think you read your own stats wrong there Love and Warrick,
According to the links you provided the Florida St. was ranked #1 in OSOS, which is Offensive Strength of Schedule.
OSOS: Offensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite offense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average OE rating against each of the defenses faced by the given team.
By that it would mean you faced a pretty easy schedule if you were ranked #1 and Oregon is ranked #33. Meaning they faced some tougher defenses.
As for your Defense ranking, you were #10
DSOS: Defensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite defense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average DE rating against each of the offenses faced.
By that it would mean that you didn’t really face tough competition from other offenses. Oregon was ranked 20. Yet FSU was still ranked ahead of Oregon in the effectiveness of their defense.
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:24 pm
According to FBSschedules, FSU was ranked with the #46 SOS before the season started. Oregon was ranked #48.
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:28 pm
From GBE college football rankings:
Strength of Schedule Ratings as of games of December 6, 2014
53 Oregon 5.73226
57 Florida State 5.77335
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:37 pm
@Skyline
Bud Elliot and the guys at Tomahawk Nation know their F+, the links came from there, and I quote
“The 2013 Seminoles faced the 52nd toughest set of offenses (this includes having faced Auburn in the BCS Title Game), while the 2014 group has faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses. 52nd v. 10th. That’s a big difference.”
and “The differences in the defenses faced is even greater.
In 2013, the Seminoles faced the 64th toughest slate of defenses. In 2014? The No. 1 . That’s right, no team faced a tougher slate of defenses in 2014 than Florida State. Not some team from the SEC or the Pac-12. FSU.”
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2014/12/23/7440643/florida-states-2014-schedule-much-tougher-than-2013
Are you saying they are wrong, or that I presented it incorrectly?
December 23rd, 2014 at 2:42 pm
This from September: According to our projections, the Seminoles won’t face an opponent as strong as Oklahoma State until they reach the College Football Playoff. We give Florida State at least a 70 percent chance to win each of its remaining games, including the ACC championship game, and the Seminoles have a win likelihood of at least 85 percent in seven of those matchups. Every other Power 5 conference contender will face more pitfalls in their playoff hunt.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will have an intriguing set of questions to discuss and debate as the season progresses, and Florida State’s strength of schedule may be at the heart of those. The Seminoles currently project to have the 60th-ranked schedule according to the latest FEI ratings — easier than all but one of the teams projected to be a division or conference winner in the other Power 5 leagues.
December 23rd, 2014 at 3:34 pm
I think it was presented wrongly. That would be interesting because everybody else has FSU with a weak schedule.
December 23rd, 2014 at 3:37 pm
It also says this at the end: “Do these numbers surprise you? FSU did play nine bowl teams. It’s also important to note that these are averages, so they are very much bolstered by only playing one non-conference cupcake, while some schools play three or four.”
December 23rd, 2014 at 3:55 pm
“Do these numbers surprise you? FSU did play nine bowl teams. It’s also important to note that these are averages, so they are very much bolstered by only playing one non-conference cupcake, while some schools play three or four.”
Right, which is a positive for FSU and the listed stats. 1 patsy vs. some schools playing 3-4.
December 23rd, 2014 at 4:04 pm
Also, this was done right before Conference Championships.
x-Statistics exclude games against schools from the FCS, formerly known as Division I-AA. The NCAA does not factor these games into its strength-of-schedule data.
Alabama 1 11-1 71-50 (.587) 10, 19, 24 (16) + 19.8
Oregon 2 11-1 72-54 (.571) 8, 15, 23 (7) + 22.6
TCU 3 10-1 54-54 (.500) 9, 20 + 24.2
Florida St. 4 12-0 66-54 (.550) 18, 21 (11) + 12.6
This shows that the Win percentage of opponents played against. Bama ranked 1 and FSU ranked 4th. Oregon came in 2nd with their opponents going 72-54, while FSU’s opponents were 66-54.
Also, it shows ranked teams beat as well as margin of victory.
I know SOS can be changed to whatever someone wants by using different stats that fit an agenda. I’m just surprised that Football Outsiders is pretty much alone in their stance that FSU had a tough schedule.
December 23rd, 2014 at 4:15 pm
Football outsiders is using f+ criteria to rank offenses and defenses, not strength of schedule.
December 23rd, 2014 at 4:53 pm
I was talking SOS.