The Bucs’ Path To The NFC South Title
November 17th, 2014
Joe’s not about to urinate on the diehard Bucs optimists out there.
So for those ear-to-ear grinning folks, Joe has crunched all the options and found the Bucs’ clear path to this year’s NFC South crown.
First, wipe it out of your brain that the Bucs would win any tiebreaker with a division foe. It’s just not going to happen. So with that stated, the Bucs’ best shot of postseason glory is winning the division outright with a 7-9 record.
Atlanta, now 4-6, has remaining home games against Cleveland, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Carolina, plus road games at New Orleans and Green Bay. Joe’s giving them two wins — against Cleveland and Carolina. That sure seems reasonable. Final record: 6-10.
New Orleans, now 4-6, has three home dates left: Baltimore, Carolina and Atlanta, plus a likely frigid December night game in Chicago, another cold-weather date in Pittsburgh, and their season-ender in Tampa. Joe’s giving them two wins, home against Carolina and Atlanta. Final record: 6-10.
Carolina limps into its bye week now at 3-7-1. It’s stunning that their defense has nosedived from second in the NFL last year to the bottom third of the league in most categories. They’ve got road games remaining in Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta, plus home games versus the Bucs and Cleveland. Joe’s going to give them two more victories: on the road against the Vikings and home against Cleveland. Final record: 5-10-1.
In this scenario, the Bucs must win five of their remaining six games to win the NFC South. The Bucs have three winning teams left on their schedule (at Detroit, home for Cincinnati and Green Bay, and three losers (at Chicago, at Carolina, and home for New Orleans).
Joe’s hardly suggesting that the Bucs will pull off a miracle, but as long as its in reach, it’s worth noting on this victory Monday.
This might be your last week to legitimately fantasize about postseason glory, so enjoy it, if you’re into that kind of thing.
The real crazies will even take the dreaming a few steps further, thinking about the Bucs probably hosting and beating the Packers with the home playoff game they’d earn, a Packers team the Bucs would have edged in December to get to the playoffs. Then the Bucs would fly to overachieving Arizona and beat up Drew Stanton for an old school Bucs win. Next would be a trip to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship game, completing the whole Lovie Smith-Father Dungy fantasy started when Lovie was hired.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:03 pm
It’s possible — if they play all of their remaining games against the Redskins.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:11 pm
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
November 17th, 2014 at 12:12 pm
I wanna know why so many people are hating on josh mccown!!! Dude was throwing dimes but people wanna focus on how many picks he almost threw when mike Glennon has never played that well on his best day. He’s never consistently hit any receiver consistently down field in stride ever…. Mike Evans was always a beast and our receivers were always open which means someone was afraid to throw it and take the risk. Our receivers are happy as hell work Glennon on the bench, the quarterback of the future isn’t josh but he’s not the guy sitting on the bench either so ride with the guy that’s starting and kill of the remaining mgm already, you guys are only credible in the offseason
November 17th, 2014 at 12:14 pm
A wise man once said that anything beyond two ifs is just dreaming.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:18 pm
Playoffs? Playoffs? – Jim Mora
November 17th, 2014 at 12:19 pm
No matter how remote, I’d rather play this silly playoff possibility game than the silly game many are playing, which is let’s lose so we get a high draft pick.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:19 pm
I was going to get all serious and wise and over up some stale version of “hey, crazier things have happened”. Then I realized that, indeed, no, nothing crazier than this scenario has ever happened in the history of ever. So why not? Let’s root for the craziest thing ever!
November 17th, 2014 at 12:21 pm
And of course by “over up” I meant “offer up”. Go Bucs! 7-9 NFC Champs!
November 17th, 2014 at 12:22 pm
In a related note, BSPN.com’s “Playoff Machine” should make it’s 2014 debut tomorrow. I waste wayyyyy too much time on that thing every year.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:22 pm
Lol the monday morning koolaid tastes awful nice.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:23 pm
BFFL
I never heard of that one. But it is, indeed, wise.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:24 pm
I don’t agree that Carolina’s defensive decline is “stunning” as this demonstrates the VAST importance of a pass rush. No Greg Hardy, no real production from Johnson, no pressure… and their defensive backfield was never outstanding to begin with.
And just as their D has collapsed as a result of no pass rush, likewise can our D rise with an increased ability to get to the QB if we draft well next year (I don’t want to sign any high-priced FA’s, they were usually let go for a reason).
November 17th, 2014 at 12:25 pm
LOL! The comments are funnier than the article. Good job guys!
November 17th, 2014 at 12:25 pm
Before they won Sunday I bet $5 on tampa to win the south and it pays $2000. Let’s just all keep dreaming.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:26 pm
buc4lyfe Says:
November 17th, 2014 at 12:12 pm
I wanna know why so many people are hating on josh mccown!!! Dude was throwing dimes but people wanna focus on how many picks he almost threw when mike Glennon has never played that well on his best day. He’s never consistently hit any receiver consistently down field in stride ever…. Mike Evans was always a beast and our receivers were always open which means someone was afraid to throw it and take the risk. Our receivers are happy as hell work Glennon on the bench, the quarterback of the future isn’t josh but he’s not the guy sitting on the bench either so ride with the guy that’s starting and kill of the remaining mgm already, you guys are only credible in the offseason
_____________________________________
Just stop it. Glennon is the better QB. He beat the steelers he played well enough to beat the saints.
He finished 19 Tds to 9 Ints in his rookie season.
He has 10 TDs to 6 Ints this season.
He is just better.
McCown is a career back up. But he is Lovie’s guy.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:29 pm
Love it! Thanks for the fantasy.
You’re welcome.–Joe
November 17th, 2014 at 12:39 pm
jo_mama Says:
Just stop it. Glennon is the better QB. He beat the steelers he played well enough to beat the saints.
He finished 19 Tds to 9 Ints in his rookie season.
He has 10 TDs to 6 Ints this season.
He is just better.
McCown is a career back up. But he is Lovie’s guy.
—————
And you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about and you prove it time and time again by making utterly ridiculous posts regarding a subject you know very little about. You further proved that point yesterday by the extremely annoying (yet completely lacking insight), incorrect, and constant barrage of stupid comments on the Bucs open thread yesterday.
Glennon COULD NOT have made half the throws McCown made yesterday. He couldn’t have moved in the pocket to get himself in position to throw, he wouldn’t have been half as accurate, and he would’ve underthrown EVERY deep pass thrown. Glennon is a career back-up. You can quote numbers all you want, but this offense under his lead has been the worst in the NFL the past two seasons. His numbers are incredibly misleading. He’s got poor accuracy, little arm strength, and ZERO mobility… or in other words, no qualities you actually want in an NFL starter.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:45 pm
Division is a disgrace. The winner should do the right thing and forfeit the playoff spot to a more deserving team.
November 17th, 2014 at 12:47 pm
How would you guys feel if the bucs win 2 more games but make a play for Cam Newton and went all defense/o-line in the draft? Isn’t Cam Newton’s contract up this season?
November 17th, 2014 at 12:52 pm
Cam Newton is the most overrated QB in the NFL. Avoid like the plague.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Lol, smh. You guys are funny.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:07 pm
My issue with that scenario is so much of Newton’s game depends on how good his legs are. He is/was banged up a little this year and is looking very mediocre this far (which I’m sure OLine and losing Steve Smith are also a part of). I guess it would depend on his health next year, but I have always believed he was overrated as well (great athlete but not the sharpest tool in the box when it comes to analyzing and adjusting to defenses when forced to be a pocket passer)
November 17th, 2014 at 1:08 pm
SUPER BOWL!!!!!!
November 17th, 2014 at 1:12 pm
“He’s got poor accuracy, little arm strength, and ZERO mobility… or in other words, no qualities you actually want in an NFL starter.”
Wrong! Way Wrong (you must be the same dude who was always bringing up Glennon’s combine numbers)! And…well OK you got me there his mobility is pretty poor. 🙂
November 17th, 2014 at 1:14 pm
bucrightoff Says:
“Cam Newton is the most overrated QB in the NFL.”
In order to take you seriously, I need to know if you are including RGIII? Never mind. I just realized you said “overrated”, not over-hyped.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:21 pm
Can we drop the brand name and just start calling him Griffin now?
November 17th, 2014 at 1:21 pm
RGIII is finished, I think we all saw that yesterday. Will always be an injury case so can’t run or he’ll get hurt guaranteed, and when he can only make one read as a QB, his value without his legs is backup at best. But Danny Boy is an enabler and he loves RGIII for whatever reason. Watch him get a ridiculous extension instead.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:24 pm
Brandon,
Who is living in fantasy now?
McCown had a good game against a 3-7 team.
McCown lost to a back up against Carolina
McCown lost to a back up against Rams
Up until yesterdays game. Mccown had thrown 4 TDs to 6 Ints. That is a clear sign of a bad QB.
What other measurement do you plan on using to help you make your argument?
We all want a win. Glennon gives us a better chance at a win.
McCown gives us a better chance at a better draft pick. So either way I am fine.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:27 pm
You’re forgetting, they are still the Bucs.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:28 pm
Jo_Mamma, we ain’t the only one that has lost to that backup from the Rams. He is playing good football this year.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:42 pm
We’re going to the Super Bowl!!!!
November 17th, 2014 at 1:45 pm
Here is the really frustrating part. If we had played at leat 75% of what we did against the Skins, we would have finished off the Saints, beat the Panthers week 1, stopped the Rams, and finished off the Vikings. That would mean we had 6 wins and 2 games in the lead. Hell, we might even have beat the Falcons this last time around as well. That would be 7 wins. Now that should piss you off.
November 17th, 2014 at 1:52 pm
But if the Redskins played as good against the Cowboys as they did us, we would have lost 45-13. Playing those games never ends well, we are what our record says, which is a very bad football team.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Amazing people still think Glennon is good or offers any value to this franchise. They need to get a QB, let’s see how McKown finishes and how the oline plays. I just can’t imagine acquiring a starting caliber QB for our future in the offseason.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:02 pm
I agree 7-9 is going to be what it takes. Seattle did it a few years back. They won the division at 7-9 and beat the Saints @ home in the playoffs.
It can be done, but they really have catch some serious fire.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:05 pm
I’d say one more loss and it’s over. Have to win out. Sad thing is, if those overtime losses ended up as victories, we’d be in first place right now! Crazy!
November 17th, 2014 at 2:06 pm
PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! U KILL ME! HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
November 17th, 2014 at 2:06 pm
the only problem i see, is the bucs ability to win 5 more. i just dont see it.
and the other problem is, even if we did, atlanta and new orleans will win more then 2.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:08 pm
bucco bruce Says:
November 17th, 2014 at 2:05 pm
I’d say one more loss and it’s over. Have to win out. Sad thing is, if those overtime losses ended up as victories, we’d be in first place right now! Crazy!
3 more games that were less then 7 on the spread as well.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:08 pm
LOVIE SMITH STILL S…S!
November 17th, 2014 at 2:12 pm
Patrickbucs Says:
November 17th, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Amazing people still think Glennon is good or offers any value to this franchise. They need to get a QB, let’s see how McKown finishes and how the oline plays. I just can’t imagine acquiring a starting caliber QB for our future in the offseason.
i would be pissed if glennon got cut. the only knock i have on him is the ball placement on his throws. he could develop into a solid starter a few years down the road, and right now is a WELL ABOVE AVERAGE backup QB.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:13 pm
You know, i was going to pick away at your comment and rebut your statements, but I’m not going to entertain the negativity the week after a win.
Both QBs are 1-4 this year starting. That’s the only stat that maters.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:15 pm
Imbeciles…..there is a 1.5 percent mathematical chance that the Bucs can win the division due to its 0-4 record against division foes. Factor in the non-math of the worst personnel and horrific coaching and they have NO chance.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:18 pm
Brandon,
Who is living in fantasy now?
McCown had a good game against a 3-7 team.
McCown lost to a back up against Carolina
McCown lost to a back up against Rams
Up until yesterdays game. Mccown had thrown 4 TDs to 6 Ints. That is a clear sign of a bad QB.
What other measurement do you plan on using to help you make your argument?
We all want a win. Glennon gives us a better chance at a win.
McCown gives us a better chance at a better draft pick. So either way I am fine.
————————————————————————————–
mccown impressed me yesterday, the ball placement was spot on. the reads were good. and he didnt get jittery feet in the pocket like he did in the first 2 weeks, i was a mccown hater after the first 2 weeks, but i hve to admit, if he keeps this up, i may have been wrong.
November 17th, 2014 at 2:32 pm
So there a reason Glennon couldn’t just throw it up to Evans? Yes he doesn’t have a cannon or accuracy…. Who cares if he throws accurate dump offs
November 17th, 2014 at 3:28 pm
wow, talk about viewing the world through different lenses. this is hilarious.
2 dash 8
November 17th, 2014 at 3:37 pm
Anyone still wanting Glennon to play should not be allowed to post. Not this week at least. No matter what you say about McCown, he is a better QB for this team this year, period. That is, if we want to win games. McCown is at least able to buy some time behind our horrendous offensive line with his scrambling ability. McCown is without a doubt a better deep ball thrower, which if anyone has noticed is our best way to score (because we can’t sustain long drives, because we are addicted to committing drive-killing penalties). Glennon will never be a franchise QB in the NFL, so playing him is a complete waste of time. You play the guy that gives you the best chance to win now, and that guy is McCown. Now if McCown goes McClown next week, then maybe you can have that discussion. But for this week, you should really just keep your mouth shut and let the big boys talk.
November 17th, 2014 at 5:32 pm
I will be content if this team simply evolves, plays every play with tenacity and conviction and gets better each week. I’m done worrying about the hypotheticals
By the way, I’d like to say thank you to bucs players and coaches for giving us something worth sitting through Sunday…
Let’s get one for Lovie this week in Chicago. I will enjoy seeing the Brat get hammered by GMC. Go BUCS!
November 17th, 2014 at 6:03 pm
theres no way they are beating Green Bay or Detroit
November 17th, 2014 at 6:05 pm
@HawaiianBuc……Well said!!!!!
November 17th, 2014 at 6:12 pm
Win the division eh? LOL – That’s some wild, weird stuff as Carson would say.
It’s not gonna happen obviously, but as long as it’s mathematically possible – then I guess its fun to consider amidst this miserable season of NO FUN. AGAIN!!!
You won’t see me badmouthing the coaches or players on here very often as a # of JBF posters seem to relish doing daily – I try and look for the positives and until yesterday hadn’t seen many. Yesterday was different. The whole team played fairly well for the most part and it was FUN to watch both O and D making plays – winning a game in dominant fashion. OK – so the Redskins obviously aren’t very good – but at this point – we’ll take wins and indications of improvement anywhere we can find them.
Any talk of Glennon playing at this point is ridiculous considering McCown just played by far the best game of the season by a Bucs QB.
Sorry MGM. L&L have made their evaluation of Glennon. He started 5 games this year and 13 last year. Bottom Line – Not Good enough! He is an adequate back up and I’d be happy for him to stay on the team and perhaps improve his game over the next couple years while we still have him for cheap – but Mike Glennon is not an NFL starting caliber Quarterback. Sorry – he’s just not. The tape don’t lie. McCown isn’t either really – or maybe just barely – but he has intangibles that Glennon does not (specifically Mobility and better Accuracy.)
November 17th, 2014 at 6:39 pm
jo_mama Says:
November 17th, 2014 at 1:24 pm
Brandon,
Who is living in fantasy now?
McCown had a good game against a 3-7 team.
McCown lost to a back up against Carolina
McCown lost to a back up against Rams
Up until yesterdays game. Mccown had thrown 4 TDs to 6 Ints. That is a clear sign of a bad QB.
What other measurement do you plan on using to help you make your argument?
We all want a win. Glennon gives us a better chance at a win.
McCown gives us a better chance at a better draft pick. So either way I am fine.
—————-
What other measurement? How about not having the league’s worst offense when he’s at the helm both in yards and points scored? How about a 3rd down conversion % at the bottom of the league, while the Bucs converted 70% against Atlanta two weeks ago. Glennon’s best was against the Steelers, who were reeling at the time, at 53%…which may be the best of Glennon’s career. and then AFTER the game, all Glennon did was get worse and worse. He has regressed and looks exactly like the immobile, inaccurate, weak-armed checkdown artist that he was last season.
You can point to 19-9 all you want, 10-whatever, it doesn’t matter. Stats often lie and even when they don’t they only tell a small part of the story. What matters is he CLEARLY is not the answer at QB for the Bucs or anybody. He’s had his opportunities, he should have been comfortable enough in the new offense, but he doesn’t have it. He has constantly NOT hit receivers in stride, NOT been able to drive the ball down the field with enough accuracy or distance (he tried to throw to Evans deep, but he usually underthrew him and was intercepted) and because he’s so immobile, he can’t get out of the way of the rush to give him that extra second or two for a receiver to break open.
Anybody that still thinks Glennon is ANYBODY’s longterm option at QB is either delusional or don’t want to admit that they’re wrong. Josh McCown has turned in 2 of the best 3 performances of a Bucs QB this season in the last two weeks (Glennon had 2nd best game of the year against the Steelers).
My greatest fear when McCown started getting healthy was that Lovie would put him back in and I absolutely knew that he gives us the absolute best chance of victory every week. I also wanted Glennon to go out there and prove, or in the case that I assumed he would, disprove himself for the rest of the season. I know McCown is an excellent backup, that much is a given, but I was hoping to see any glimmer of excellence out of Glennon. We saw a pretty good game from him against the Steelers, then he played okay against the Saints, and then led the team to less than a mere 16 points a game the next 3 games (47 points) against less than stellar defenses.
And for somebody that wants to cling to stats to justify his argument, Glennon’s best day, statistically speaking, was against the Ravens… the DEBACLE against the Ravens in which the entire team, especially Glennon, stunk up the joint. And then to further compare the stats of the two, and again, there is no comparison, McCown is CLEARLY better, McCown has a way better completion % at 63.4 to Glennon’s 57.6, better yards per attempt at 7.5 to Glennon’s 7.0, and then the stats of McCown keep drives alive with his running on 3rd down are ridiculous compared to the slew-footed giraffe (not to mention 2 TDs that he ran for). This team is far better with McCown at QB.
November 17th, 2014 at 6:41 pm
BTW, McCown threw a 25 yard out to keep a drive going on 3rd down… a 25 yard out pattern, those throws are barely in NFL playbooks because so few QBs can get it there with enough velocity and accuracy. Glennon can barely complete a 15 yard out. His ball placement is spotty to say the least and his arm strength is poor.
November 17th, 2014 at 7:32 pm
@joe we need more of these articles! Hey things could be worse. We could be in a division that actually has a winning record
November 18th, 2014 at 7:35 am
Glennon has had more than enough time to show something. He showed he is not good enough. 5 years from now maybe, but not now. Not yet convinced McCown is much better but he had a hell of a game on Sunday.
November 18th, 2014 at 1:38 pm
Aint that sum “sh*t” , we win and every bodies going back & forth about MG & JM . Who gives a Fk! We Won , so lets just learn how to enjoy this 1 & carry it over to next week. Smdh. ( we suck again.)
November 18th, 2014 at 1:42 pm
Btw – Tampa bay bucs will draft a Qb in the 2015 NFL draft. Debate that!