Rumors Based On Stubborn Facts
October 23rd, 2014
Earlier today, Bucs wide receiver Vincent Jackson seemed flattered by trade rumors but claims he is perfectly happy in Tampa Bay. Joe can understand why.
This week, Bucs overlord of football operations Lovie Smith seemed to bristle — as he always does with unsourced reports — about news that was leaking out of NFL circles that the Bucs were open to moving wide receiver Vincent Jackson.
The Bucs would be foolish not to listen to offers for Jackson. Of course, trading Jackson comes with consequences, but there are unpleasant truths as Jackson’s age grows and his production drops; not a good combination. Consider what Pro Football Focus spreadsheeter Sam Monson wrote for BSPN on offensive weapons.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There isn’t a whole lot to like about the Tampa Bay offense this season. Josh McCown was injured and the team has gone back to Mike Glennon, but that doesn’t address the play of the other players on that side of the ball. Demar Dotson, one of the better right tackles in football a year ago, has been struggling this season, though he remains the only lineman on the team grading above average. Vincent Jackson, the team’s top target, is averaging 31.1 percent less yardage per route run than a season ago.
A third less? That’s a big drop. And consider other relevant numbers for Jackson: Entering the bye week, Jackson was tied for fourth in most drops this season, and his target/catch rate ratio was a subpar 55 percent.
Throw in Jackson is on the wrong side of 30 — he will be 32 come January. Per Rotoworld.com, Jackson has two more seasons on his Bucs contract paying him $9,777,777 next year and $9,777,778 in 2016, none guaranteed. Frankly, there is no way Jackson is a $10 million-a-year player at this stage of his career.
Based on his inclining age, declining production and lofty salary, if the Bucs are not listening to any offers for Jackson’s services, then it borders on irresponsible.
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:25 pm
I’d imagine you have to cut your route off 2/3 through when the QB only has .03848 seconds to throw the ball…
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:38 pm
2013 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 78 1,224
2012 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 72 1,384
1000 + every year what drop off are people seeing thi with terrible offense and rookie QB and a crazy one.
How stupid are the bucs gonna look whe they trade a proven producer and reach In draft for an unproven. Instead of filling positions we replace people in the ones we have filled already. Stupid stupid.
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:39 pm
Joe
As a prime member of the pen and mike club, does the fact that he hurt his wrist some time ago have any bearing on his dropsies or does he just need glasses or both?
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:42 pm
The drop off is due in part to the ‘creative play calling’.
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:44 pm
Jackson has had a case of the dropsies since he showed up in Tampa. Two years ago they were just a minor nuisance. His dropsies have grown by the year.
Before the attack begins, Joe likes Jackson. His production has declined (numbers don’t lie) since signing, partially because he is getting old. Father Time is undefeated.
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:45 pm
Trade him for Incognito and Freeman!
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:53 pm
For comparison, I would argue to look at what Larry Fitzgerald has done numbers wise the last few years. Hasn’t had a 1000 yard season since 2011, and isn’t on pace for one this year either. He’s also 31. I don’t think he’s done, he just doesn’t have the help he needs. Glennon isn’t terrible, but he gets no protection, especially on the deep routes which Jackson excels. Our pass protection was bad last year, it is worse than awful this year. There’s also no running game to speak of. I really believe these factors contribute more to his decline than his age. If he goes to NE for example, he would instantly be their #1 and tear it up. Can anyone even attempt to argue that?
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:54 pm
replace with Eric page save 9.3 million dollars and still have the same amount of wins
October 23rd, 2014 at 3:56 pm
I was for keeping Jackson because I thought whatever the Bucs received in exchange would not be worth it. I’ve softened that view to get a good draft pick and it makes sense to do it. We have to have faith in the young receivers that their future play will offset the loss of Jackson and possibly improve that position. I will be surprised if he is gone by the trade deadline.
October 23rd, 2014 at 4:01 pm
If it wasn’t for his drops, he would probably be MVP of this team, so no I don’t think we should trade him. I think a lot of his drops has to do with a lack of concentration or focus, which can be easily lost if you’re on a losing team with nothing to play for. Still, that should not be and excuse and I expect him to get the problem corrected, because he has it in him to be a 100 catch WR. Get it together VJ.
October 23rd, 2014 at 4:23 pm
What’s he worth a 6th or 7th round pick? That’s okay I’ll keep him thank you. There was some talk today on the radio that if traded we would get a high draft pick not even mid round. Can’t trade Vjax (even if declining) for unproven talent, especially the way lovely evaluates talent.
October 23rd, 2014 at 4:49 pm
the drops are in his control and still with a wrist injury I can understand being at the top in drops but atleast he’s still playing in every game. now as far as the yardage it’s obvious he’s a big target and the guy has always average big yardage and his height is the reason the dunkaneers name was thrown out there…..how about we get enough protection from the line and get glennon to stop staring the guy down and go through his progression and he’ll be able to throw downfield, i’d rather put the defense on it’s heels by throwing deep whether they drop the ball or not wont be on the quarterback if he’s giving them opportunities deep
October 23rd, 2014 at 5:53 pm
Trade the tradeable and get Winston in the draft with the 1st overall pick. The fortunes of the Tampa Bay Bucs will change for the better!
October 23rd, 2014 at 6:06 pm
Its 3rd and 20 on the Bucs 5 yard line w/ 1:20 on the clock. The Bucs are in a 4wr set and the defense is blitzing and Sims picks it up. All of the wr are covered and the Bucs don’t have a play for 4th and 20. Winston takes off and gains 15 yards and the O rushes up to the line for the next play. Evans is doubled Herron is covered in the slot and ASJ is shadowed but Sims gets out the backfield because the defense dosen’t want Winston to run on them again. Winston hit sims who gets the 1st down and more and goes out of bounds to save the last timeout. NOW CAN ANYONE SEE A SCENARIO LIKE THIS HAPPENING WITH GLENNON AS THE QB. NO BECAUSE GLENNON WOULD HAVE TAKEN THE SAFETY AND EVERYONE WOULD BLAME THE O-LINE ANG COACHING DECISION.
October 23rd, 2014 at 6:34 pm
Really his production was great last year? Coming into this year he was a top 10 projected fantasy reciever. Question is is his decline this year due to offensive disaster and broken wrist or age. I believe the former. Besides it would have to be a 2nd rd pick to get comparable production. I’d just keep him and pair with Evans next year. 9.7 mil isn’t outrageous..
October 23rd, 2014 at 6:58 pm
Trade V Jax and Doug Martin to the Patriots in exchange for Gronk and a secound round pick. They’d free up cap space and be able to run a more deadly two TE set with Gronk rather than Meyers. The only two players on the team that are safe in my opinion are David and Mccoy, Barron with his coverage ability doesn’t justify being drafted in the top 10 (but same could go for Claiborne) so either way the 2012 first round pick wouldn’t have turned out to be the player the Buccanners expected. In order for this team to turn around they need to wheel and deal to get draft picks. If we end up in the top 3 I’d love to see us trade down to get some O-line help or a CB in the middle of the first.
October 23rd, 2014 at 7:49 pm
Get ready for WINSTON!, WINSTON!, WINSTON!
October 23rd, 2014 at 9:12 pm
I think it depends on what happens in the NFC south this week, including if we win or not. If we lose I think they will likely pull the trigger on a good offer. I also think Mariota would be the better pro QB.
October 23rd, 2014 at 9:20 pm
@DB55 Says:
“..What’s he worth a 6th or 7th round pick? That’s okay I’ll keep him thank you..”
That is likely the best we are going to do. So, I totally agree, keep him. Unless of course Lovie wants to spend VJax’s millions on some other under performed (like M Johnson and the Oline…)
October 23rd, 2014 at 10:17 pm
Go to work tomorrow. When you get there, take a crowbar, and hit your wrist repeatedly- until it Breaks.
Does it impact your ability to do your job?
And you are NOT a pro athlete- competing with the best in the world.
With a broken wrist.
And if you are right handed, make sure it’s your right wrist.
Not only will you be unable to catch a football- you will probably be unable to wipe your own butt!- a stationary target
And yes, drafting Winston would change the Bucs fate.
Nothing like having your starting QB in Prison for 5 years, to finish us off
Winston is an absolute stud athelete.
But he isn’t immature.
He’s hugely stupid.
Can’t cure that
October 24th, 2014 at 8:40 am
Winston=Newton with far less intelligence. I would stay away from Winston at all costs.
October 24th, 2014 at 1:41 pm
i’m sorry, but what about our drafting record in this millennium makes people think that trading a proven producer for a draft pick is a win for the franchise? the 2 occasions i can recall where we had multiple 2nd rounders, we turned them into: sabby piscitelli & arron sears (the draft where it was rumored that those 2 picks and our first would have landed us calvin johnson), followed by arrelious benn & brian price (to be fair, we traded gaines adams away who tragically never played another down, so we didn’t quite lose that trade, we just wasted it)
October 24th, 2014 at 4:34 pm
@ pick6
Good points!