The Key To Winning
July 11th, 2014
Joe believes it is offense, not defense, that will be the key to a potentially historic 2014 season
Joe believes it is safe to type that Bucs coach Lovie Smith knows how to win. No, Lovie has never won a Super Bowl — the ultimate goal — but he has won in the NFL.
Right now, Bucs fans are so beaten down from years of losing, from Raheem Morris chest-bumping players despite being down by three scores, to the MRSA and losing the first eight games out of the chute last year.
Bucs fans right now will take anything they can get, though Joe’s one and only goal is to see the Bucs win a Super Bowl. Joe uses Wild Card and division title T-shirts to wash his truck. They are virtually meaningless.
ESPN’s Bucs blogger Pat Yasinskas believes he knows the key for Lovie and the Bucs to win.
This defense will be the key factor in determining if Smith’s regime will succeed. The offense can be average, but the defense has to be special.
Joe thinks just the opposite. While he agrees with Yasinskas the defense could be special, despite what some Woody Hayes types will have you believe, you cannot win on defense alone unless you have one of the top three defenses in NFL history (Baltimore Crows).
This was proven right here in Tampa Bay, no less. How many seasons did the Bucs have the best defense in the NFL, and yet the offense shat themselves time and again in the playoffs? You cannot win games if you don’t score. Even Warren Sapp has said this in the “Myths” segment of “Top Ten” on the NFL Network.
He knows from personal experience.
Always remember and never forget the lone Super Bowl in Bucs history was won with an offensive head coach and a Pro Bowl quarterback.
Joe is confident writing the defense will be just fine. There’s a reason the Bucs drafted only offensive players this spring.
There is no need to lose sleep over the defense. It is in fine hands. But if the Bucs are to celebrate a Super Bowl with the Vince Lombardi Trophy held aloft in victory, it is the offense that is the key. It is the offense that must be, at worst, capable of marching downfield late in a tight game.
July 11th, 2014 at 8:28 am
“Joe uses Wild Card and division title T-shirts to wash his truck. They are virtually meaningless.”
Hyperbole much?
If the golden boy’s GM reign were filled with wildcards and NFC South crowns, he wouldn’t be schucking for a FL fb minor league right now.
When’s the last time the Pats actually won a title? Just two years more recently than TB’s. I doubt Hoodie will be run out of town anytime soon.
Every fan of every team wants a SB title, but, I think you’re underselling playoff appearances. They matter.
July 11th, 2014 at 8:29 am
I agree with Joe that the bucs need to have an offense but lets be realistic for a second. Most of the talent is on defense and we will be relying on rookie wr evand and herron. Rookie te Henkins, new system and unproven quarterbacks. Bucs offense will get better through season maybe but who is our offensive line again? How will our quarterback have time to throw? Im sure the locals wont watch the line and just dump blame on the quarter backs… again.
July 11th, 2014 at 8:31 am
Where did the Super Bowl offense rank? Middle of the pack somewhere? I think that’s what Yasinskas means by “average”…and I agree with him. 9 of the top 11 defenses last season (points against) made the playoffs…one of the teams that didn’t had 10 wins. The Seahawks just won’t it with a dominant defense and an average offense. Hell, the Ravens just won it with a decent offense and a pretty good defense. The defense has got to come first.
July 11th, 2014 at 8:32 am
Yes I meant TE Jenkins lool. Could not agree more with Oil Derrick Brooks more. Suddenly were to good for just playoffs? really?
July 11th, 2014 at 8:39 am
Defense still wins championships……ask Manning!
July 11th, 2014 at 8:58 am
Here’s hoping the offense comes together in December after the defense has put us in contention.
July 11th, 2014 at 9:03 am
Beg to differ with you Joe. Pat said the offense can be average. Under Dungy it was anemic. A huge difference. A 15th ranked offense with a top 5 defense would be plenty. You also proved Pats point. Lovie went to the Superbowl. His QB was Rex Friggin Grossman. If we had the average QB in Seatlle we would be a slam dunk. I for one think Mccown can be that average.
July 11th, 2014 at 9:17 am
Joe,
We won 4 games last year. You gotta ‘crawl before you can walk’, man. I would be thrilled with the Bucs being in the playoffs, be it wild card or whatever – for now. Then we can worry about why we are not in the SB
July 11th, 2014 at 9:29 am
Maybe I am wrong for saying this, and it is nothing against Tedford – I am excited to see what he brings to the table. But part of me wishes we would have hired Norv Turner as OC. He is a great offensive mind. I doubt at this stage of his career anyone will hire him as a HC (he sucks at it) – and that is the main point of this: continuity. If Tedford is the next Chip Kelly (that is our best hope), he will be one and done as he will be hired away as a HC. That is the advantage the Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Patriots, etc have; the HC is an offensive coach and they will always have continuity.
July 11th, 2014 at 9:52 am
Most of the talent is on defense? After the last draft?
No. No. No.
Why are some willing to settle for 17 points a game and put all the pressure on the defense? We should expect both.
July 11th, 2014 at 9:57 am
The use of Simms and Herron along with a quick release from McCown will neutralize the vicious d-line attack in the 1st 2 games. But, I agree with Joe the offense will be the key. The offensive coordinator’s execution will be the key. The genius must come out of Tedford.
July 11th, 2014 at 10:10 am
2013 Stat:
Of the bottom 14 teams in offensive points scored, NONE of them had a winning record. Of those, it included some fairly decent defenses like the Rams, Ravens and Dolphins.
Of the top 12 teams in defensive points allowed, NONE of them had a losing record. – with one caveat – only 2 of those teams averaged 20 points or less per game, they were both 8-8. The other 10 teams averaged 22.5 points per game or better. None were worse than 9-7 and the average record was 11-5
Of the top teams in offensive points scored, 10 of the top 12 reached the playoffs, except Chicago and Dallas, both of whom were train wrecks on defense. Otherwise only one team who ranked in the bottom half of scoring in the league made the playoffs – the Carolina kitty-cats.
My thought is that stats aren’t lying here. You need solid production from both sides of the ball or you have virtually no chance at the playoffs. Defenses no longer carry teams in the NFL, and thinking they will most likely gets you fired. The old days of Buc ball won’t work over the course of a season.
July 11th, 2014 at 11:08 am
Louis Friend Says:
July 11th, 2014 at 10:10 am
The old days of Buc ball won’t work over the course of a season.
——————————–
Not really, but Buc Ball can evolve, and it did in Chicago when Lovie had dominant D and dominant ST. When his offense was average, the Bears were an excellent team. No, you can’t win championships based on one side of the ball alone, but you can if a team is dominant on one side and average on the other. I’d take average from our O at this point.
July 11th, 2014 at 11:31 am
You STILL dont need a top ranked offense to win a championship, last year proved it. Seattle’s offense was ranked 18th in the league. 18th!!! The key to their offense was more about ball control then anything else. Their defense on the other hand, ranked number 1. So as long as we have just an average offense and a top ranked defense, we can still win a super bowl imo.
July 11th, 2014 at 11:39 am
They were however 7th in the league in points scored per game. So I’m thinking we need to also be at least top ten in that category. It’s all about points scored/points allowed. And, you guessed it, they gave up the least amount of points per game last year.
July 11th, 2014 at 1:45 pm
Division Titles and Wild card appearances are not meaningless in my book.
Those reflect a job well done and a fan base getting their monies worth.
And ill darn sure take either one this year and say that you very much Mr. Smith.
July 11th, 2014 at 5:25 pm
Joe, Great points but Playoff achievements do matter and they are stepping stones to the path of the Ultimate goal the SB. Lets say the Defense is fine and we use Dungy as a example. They get the feel for it in the 9th game and we fininsh strong on D. Next year we got the Hype and the Swagger, A ball control, Jump ball, with the focus on Ball security will remind many people of the Brad Johnson years. Can it work? I think yes. Will it light up the field NO will it be tenious YES. But in a couple of years you will be able to wash you Car alot more.
July 11th, 2014 at 11:33 pm
I will go out on a limb, both offense and defense are equally important. Special teams can be the difference. Coaching might be most important. Good ownership also makes a big difference.
Offense = 35%
Defense =35%
Coaching = 20%
Special Teams = 10%
Ownership 100% responsibility
not an exact science just an estimate
July 12th, 2014 at 5:20 am
When the mighty 99 defense held the Greatest Show on Turf to a measly 11 points and still lost; it proves that a team needs at least a mediocre offense to succeed. Otherwise, everything on defense has to be totally perfect to pull out a victory. One perfectly thrown pass, even though defended as well as could be expected, costs the game. Or, one bad call on offense prevents the opportunity to score. A team that plays too close to the vest……will never be the best. That said, I’d rather win 17-14 than lose 42-38.
July 12th, 2014 at 8:24 am
@Oil Derrick Brooks
What good is one and done then? None. While I disagree with Joe on the division title thing, I do agree about the wildcards IF we play one gamee and get booted from the playoffs.
I would rather NOT make the playoffs than go one and done in them. At least we would get a better pick.
One and done is no better than 0-16 in my book.
July 12th, 2014 at 8:32 am
Brian Says
“Where did the Super Bowl offense rank? Middle of the pack somewhere?”
You cannot use that as a measuring stick. That team would not win a superbowl in the modern era, Brian. Yes, the defense might get us into the playoffs, but maybe not even that. They were on their last gasp.
Look at the Seahawks last year…best defense, right? They also had a top 10 offense. They averaged 24 points per game. That is three TDs with extra points and a field goal.
I would wager if the Bucs had scored an average of 24 points per game, we would have been in the playoffs regardless of the defense.
July 12th, 2014 at 8:40 am
@willie-d
I think it is more like
40% either side of the ball
30% other side of the ball
20% special teams
10% coaching
I think you need one side to be very good, the other side slightly above average.
Special teams is more important than you give credit for. A kicker is often the leading scorer on a team, amd ball placement is incredibly important. Pinning opposing offenses behind the 15 or a return that gets our own close to or past the 50.