“Up-Tempo” Not Evident In Tedford’s History
June 28th, 2014
The Bucs’ mysterious Jeff Tedford offense aroused stats guru Kyle Wachtel and drove him to perform research and craft spreadsheets for FootballGuys.com.
Wachtel dug up all kinds of data and Joe must commend him. This was some telling stuff.
Many Buccaneers players have referenced the word “up-tempo” to describe Tedford’s offense. However, Wachtel’s number crunching reveals that fast-paced action is absolutely not in Tedford’s DNA.
Unlike many of the fresher offensive coordinators in the NFL who have been a blessing for fantasy football, Tedford has not called for a fast-paced offense. Over the past ten seasons at California, the 67.5 plays-per-game averaged by his offenses have an average rank of just 79th among all college football programs. For context, the three-year average for college teams is 73.4 plays-per-game compared to 64.1 in the NFL. Accounting for that drop-off would place Tedford’s projected plays-per-game at approximately 58.9. Tampa Bay has also found themselves under the NFL’s average total offensive plays over the past two seasons and with a new, defensive minded Head Coach in Lovie Smith, we can expect the offensive tempo to be near the league average at best.
In regards to the playcalling, Tedford does like to run the football and has done so on 54% of his offensive plays while at California. In the past two seasons, only 11 out of a possible 64 NFL offenses have ran the ball greater than 50% of the time over the course of a season. The average regular season win totals of those teams is 9.2, which provides evidence that a run-based offense can still be successful in this so called “passing league.”
As indicated above, Tampa Bay’s recent offenses have fallen right in line with the NFL’s pass / run split. When considering Tedford’s move to the NFL and the organization’s use of their top 2014 draft selections for receivers, it can be expected that Tedford relies on the passing game a little more than in his past. Nevertheless, it remains likely that the team will be among the more run-centric offenses in the NFL.
There’s plenty more to read via the link above.
What does it all really mean? Joe has no clue, though Joe is confident Tedford yearns to open his playbook and intelligently attack playing effective and creative situational football.
What those situations are, of course, will fall largely on the Bucs defense. Last year, Tampa Bay was a turnover-forcing machine getting the kind of results Lovie Smith craves for 2014, but Mike Glennon, Mike Sullivan and the offense were historically dreadful and couldn’t capitalize.
It’s painful for Joe to type this, and Joe apologizes for the painful memories it will conjure, but the Bucs averaged 5.2 points scored in the second half of games last season. If that happens again, Joe’s all in favor of firing Tedford after one season.
June 28th, 2014 at 8:43 am
I’m not sure what to think of the Tedford hire but I’ll admit it is new and innovated. I think a lot of his struggles the past few years at cal had more to do with lack of talent coming in and the conference being stronger. He’s got an ideal mind and works to his qbs strengths however I have a hard time giving him credit for developing Rodgers.
I think he’ll do a good job working in the 2-rb set of Martin James and Sims. I see some formations of utilizing multiple TE sets and spread. (I hope)
June 28th, 2014 at 9:09 am
I may just be Tedfords biggest fan right now. Got a total man crush on this guy. I agree with Chris, in I wont give him credit for the Rodgers we know today, but I will give him credit for making lemonade out of the lemons he’s had for Qb’s in his past. I can’t friggin wait to see this guy in action. I’m sure we dont have to worry about Lovie taking over the play calling like we had to last year with Schiano. Here’s to hoping he adjusts to the NFL like Chip Kelly and Jimmy Johnson.
I also hope he hated his HC days so much, he never wants to be a head coach again, and stays for a long time…. As long as he is doing as well as I think he will.
June 28th, 2014 at 9:13 am
Tedford’s offensive game plan will have to average at least 10 points in the second half. Actually I expect more points with the improved passing game. Tedford is a big question mark going into the upcoming season.
June 28th, 2014 at 9:45 am
No up-tempo found. Love IT! keep them guessing. This gets better and better.
History is a guessing game with an fake comfort…
June 28th, 2014 at 9:50 am
5.2 pt average in second half?
Schiano really was only going to the bathroom at halftime.
June 28th, 2014 at 9:55 am
Up Tempo……compared to Sully…..not difficult.
While I reserve judgement on Tedford as Lovie’s choice for OC, I am very optimistic and hopeful that it was a good one.
Again, I say that our draft of entirely Offensive players shows great respect & confidence in Tedford. I’m sure his influence was felt on draft day.
June 28th, 2014 at 10:39 am
You mean Shiano averaged 5.2. This was clearly Schiano pulling in the reigns. I’d be interested if the Bucs had the lead in any of those games or how many games where the score was close. Shiano’s ass was puckering all last season and he was just trying to hold on to win games or hoping to pull them out. The offense had no trouble the year before. And Joe when you own a team you can then hire and fire whomever you like otherwise just report the news.
June 28th, 2014 at 10:53 am
Joe, I realize that we have a lot of “dead” time till training camp, but let’s not start being negative before we start. IF we assume that LOVIE is an excellent head coach surrounded by excellent assistants why assume Tedford may not be an excellent OC WITHOUT at least giving him a chance? Let’s not forget, LOVIE had the whole year of and KNEW he was going to get another HC job. HE HAD THE WHOLE WORLD TO CHOOSE FROM FOR AN OC. Time will tell if he made the right choice, but let’s not begin knocking him yet!
June 28th, 2014 at 11:06 am
Joe
Is it true that it’s only 26 days to training camp?
As far as average plays go, there is a big difference between three and score and three and out, so for the Bucs last year it was more three and out then three and score. Hopefully we will reverse that this year.
June 28th, 2014 at 11:16 am
You can’t necessarily take what he did in college and just slap an NFL uniform on it. Even his past players say they’re having to learn.
As much as people want to have “Figured that out” they won’t know until the season gets underway. I mean people gotta fill space, right?
June 28th, 2014 at 11:20 am
“NFL play calling” not evident in Tedford’s history!
June 28th, 2014 at 11:22 am
Why are people predisposed to believing Tedford is going to run the same scheme here as he did at Cal?
He’s on record saying he’s had a year to study the NFL, has been to NE to learn the nuances of the 2 TE set as well.
Furthermore, he’s seen firsthand Schiano’s failure to adapt from college to the pro game.
I think he’s more of the Chip Kelly type and will be able to innovate.
June 28th, 2014 at 12:16 pm
@brandonbucsfan – Joe’s really not being negative here. Joe’s got a lot of positive on this home page.
June 28th, 2014 at 12:29 pm
Yeh. Let’s fire him, smith and licht too.
June 28th, 2014 at 12:54 pm
Why would his average plays per game drop off because he is coming to the NFL. If he averaged 67.5 plays per game in college wouldn’t you expect close to the same especially considering there is a good chance our defense will be getting the ball back to the offense more so that recent years for this team. I see him doing about the same as he did in college which would put him at the league average in the NFL. I see this offense being ranked at 12 or faster in the tempo category same for overall rank. Thats just my opinion…..
June 28th, 2014 at 12:57 pm
@biff barker
Couldn’t agree more. Tedford won’t be calling the same scheme as he did at Cal. He knows it won’t work, and talent had nothing to do with it. Tedford recruited those kids to be his system players and it still didn’t work. If he has an ounce of humility he’ll have learned from his mistakes and learned some new elements to add to his scheme. I’m hoping he has.
June 28th, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Joe, Love the info you are bringing during the doldrums of summer. Do you take request? Can we get 16 game preview of match ups that the Bucs will play Against ( like there record, additions, and how hypotheical they will do against the Bucs. You could do 1 every day or two. ( its really only 13 matchups as we play are division twice.)
June 28th, 2014 at 2:11 pm
Tampabaybucfan Says:
“Up Tempo……compared to Sully…..not difficult.”
Ironically, everyone claimed the Sully offense would be run first, AND up tempo.
.
brandonbucsfan.com Says:
June 28th, 2014 at 10:53 am
“…why assume Tedford may not be an excellent OC…”
First, he has never coached in the NFL. Second, he was fired from the college gig he DID have. Long before he got the Bucs job.
Second, his playbook development is faulty. How do we know this? Because Josh McCown had to tell him what works and what doesn’t.
And finally, Joe is not “assuming” anything.
PERSONALLY, I VIEW IT LIKE THIS:
He will have to prove himself before he should get credit. Right now, people are talking about how awesome he’ll be without even knowing if he will be. There is nothing wrong with demanding he, or anyone on the team, prove themselves.
There are plenty of players who need to prove themselves and build continuity as well. Michael Johnson got good when he was due a contract. Mike Glennon had a losing record. Clayborn needs to prove he can be good on a regular basis. Our Starting center needs continuity.
Heck, pretty much everyone on the team needs to prove it…except maybe Barth…who has proven continuity but is coming back from injury. Heck, even McCoy has to go a 3rd year without injury. David is great, but he’s not next level great (yet), so he needs to prove things too.
I would challenge anyone to name a player or coach or GM that does not have to prove themselves on the Bucs.
June 28th, 2014 at 2:13 pm
Matchups? Matchups? lol. We don’t even know what the offense will look like until our first regular season game.
June 28th, 2014 at 2:16 pm
McCoy will need to prove he isn’t playing for his new contract (which he’ll get). Plenty of good players coast after getting that contract. He doesn’t strike me as the time of player to coast, so I’m sure he will be fine.
But he still has to prove it.
June 28th, 2014 at 2:42 pm
“The_Buc_Realist Says:
June 28th, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Joe, Love the info you are bringing during the doldrums of summer. Do you take request? Can we get 16 game preview of match ups that the Bucs will play Against ( like there record, additions, and how hypotheical they will do against the Bucs. You could do 1 every day or two. ( its really only 13 matchups as we play are division twice.) ”
Great Idea! Taking the “underdog”, has strong growth potential for BUC fans this year.
June 28th, 2014 at 2:51 pm
Probably get a lot of (+3.5, +6.5) money the 1st (6) games. Especially the beginning of the season, when lines are the post difficult to set.
(Home)
• September 7 – Carolina – 4:25 pm
• September 14 – St. Louis – 4:05 pm
(Away)
• September 18 – at Atlanta – 8:25 pm
• September 28 – at Pittsburgh – 1:00 pm
• October 5 – at New Orleans – 1:00 pm
(Home)
• October 12 – Baltimore – 1:00 pm
CLEAN UP TIME!
June 28th, 2014 at 3:02 pm
Second, his playbook development is faulty. How do we know this? Because Josh McCown had to tell him what works and what doesn’t.
———————————–
You sure are assuming a whole lot there. Who’s to say that, it wasn’t already a good play that McCown improved? All I have read was that McCown “tweeked” some plays… you assume the playbook is not faulty? Lol wtf?
June 28th, 2014 at 3:02 pm
is now faulty*
June 28th, 2014 at 3:18 pm
I’m not sure what McCoy needs to prove to anybody. He has an unusually high standard for himself. GMC’s going to thrive in the T2.
June 28th, 2014 at 3:38 pm
@ Bob – You mean Schiano averaged 5.2. This was clearly Schiano pulling in the reigns.
I believe Schiano was such a control freak. The moment Glennon came into the picture Schiano’s focus was to make him better the Schiano’s way. I truly believe all offensive plays were more geared to improve Glennon and if we happen to win great. And those plays had to be Schiano approved. That’s why we saw so many 4-6 yard passes.
It should be interesting to see Glennon in preseason. With the new coaching staff and Schiano being out of the picture Glennon should receive the proper coaching and freedom to be himself on the field.
With Schiano the first priority was not winning the game. Is good to be discipline but when you are a control freak you are blinded by your EGO.
June 28th, 2014 at 3:45 pm
*Most difficult to set
June 28th, 2014 at 4:37 pm
Tedford is going up tempo. Count on it. Why do you think Lovie has been doing up tempo practices? Tedford is going to wear out the first five teams we play in our high heat with that up tempo offense. Then when they have their hands on their hips, he will unleash his speed in space game with Demps and Sims working them crazy! Go in at halftime after the opposition has analyzed how to stop us and then Tedford comes out with the Patriot two tight end offense and drive down and score!
June 28th, 2014 at 5:17 pm
Joe
Since you are obviously drinking cool ones and not being concerned about things right now, I thought I would ask you if you have ascertained that the new OC will continue to run plays that work even if not practiced, unlike the former coaching Guru? That still has to be the quote of last year.
June 28th, 2014 at 6:55 pm
Tedfords offense concerns me a little, especially if his plan is to use an up tempo, two minute type offense exclusively all game. I hope Tedford utilizes this scheme when needed, but also mixes it up with long time consuming drives as well. Hurry up type of offenses do tend to score more points on average but they are also known to give up a lot of points defensively too, because our own defense will be gassed by the second half. This is why we need quality depth on defense, so we can rotate guys in and out, to keep them fresh. But if there is a huge drop off between starters and 2nd teamers, we will struggle anyway when the second teamers start rotating in.
June 29th, 2014 at 3:14 am
I fully expect Tedford to kick ass in the NFL as an OC.
What he did in Cal may not be what he does here, in fact it’s quite probable things will be different based on what he’s seen works and doesn’t work in the NFL.
He has stated that he has all kinds of tempos within his offense. Also, I doubt all the players and coaches that have described his offense as high-tempo are all part of an elaborate ruse to fool the NFL…
June 29th, 2014 at 4:14 pm
Doesn’t matter what offense Tedford WANTS to run, I believe our whole scheme hinges on the ability/performance of our O-line.
Based on his past, Tedford will establish a strong running attack, but the draft and free agency has brought in mostly pass blocking linemen. If they can prove their versatility, the balance of our offense could be a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators