Thin Crop Of Guards?
May 6th, 2014
Pat Kirwan details. Will Lovie Smith fight off his D-line fixation?
Joe’s written 1,456 times about the alleged incredible depth at wide receiver in the 2014 NFL Draft.
But where else is it deep, and in what rounds?
Former Bucs scout and Jets personnel chief Pat Kirwan, who now is a national media type for CBS Sports, SiriusXM NFL Radio and others, has penned a neat look at depth in the draft. Joe recommends you check it out here at CBSSports.com.
Kirwan does his own scouting and crafted the chart below:
| DRAFTABLE DEPTH BY POSITION | |||
| POS. | ROUND 1-3 | ROUND 4-7 | TOTAL |
| QB | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| RB | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| TE | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| WR | 14 | 20 | 34 |
| OT | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| OG | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| C | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| DE | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| DT | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| ILB | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| OLB | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| S | 6 | 13 | 20 |
| CB | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| TOTALS | 101 | 147 | 249 |
It suggests a few things to Joe:
1) Lovie Smith will be able to repeat his clear pattern of drafting a defensive lineman early.
2) If the Bucs want a quality guard, they may have to convert a rookie who played tackle in college.
3) Again, relax, as Joe has advised many times, the Bucs will get a very promising receiver in the first two days of the draft. Mike Evans should not be a priority.
May 6th, 2014 at 2:46 pm
34 wide receivers and people want us to take one in round one…. (shakes head).
May 6th, 2014 at 2:48 pm
Glennon has the 5th best QB rating of all rookie QBs to start in the past 20 years. Even better than Flacco, Luck, Palmer, Bradford, Tannehill and yes Payton Manning. Other rookie QBs like Eli Manning, Freeman, etc were not even on the list.
Glennon also finished 3rd on this list for TD to INT ratio.
But go ahead and keep ignoring all these facts. I guarantee you Jason and Lovie have not ignored this.
May 6th, 2014 at 2:49 pm
looks like O-line is thin in general and a far drop off from the top three O-tackles, which are rated top ten selections, to the next group. The rec’s are all very close. Just a matter of what skill set a team is looking for.
May 6th, 2014 at 2:58 pm
@Bonzai,
So you want just any WR, or do you want a potential elite WR? If you have the #7 pick, you better get an elite player, no matter what position. I miss the logic where people think it’s a slam dunk to get a good WR in a later round, just because this draft is “deep”. 2010 was supposedly a deep draft for WR’s too. How’d that work out for us?
May 6th, 2014 at 3:02 pm
Draft a guard in the 2nd or 3rd. I’m not in favor of converting a tackle.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:03 pm
have u seen or WRs lately ? lol VJax on the decline Murphy journeyman Owusu oft injured not a starter page slot guy not a start hawkins not a starter who are the other WRs again we need a WR bad
May 6th, 2014 at 3:06 pm
Imagine Joe how many times you wrote about JF if you wrote 1400+ times on WRs!!
May 6th, 2014 at 3:08 pm
@ Hawaiian buc
I don’t think that is the point here. In one of the deepest wr drafts I have seen, 1996 the first two rounds had these rec’s: key Johnson, terry glenn, eddie kennison, m Harrison, moulds, toomer, Muhammad and mark engram. toomer was selected where the bucs sit in the second round and mushin Muhammad after that. there ws a bust or two in there but I think the point is top talent thins out quick on the o line where it does not drop off so fast with the receivers. I agree. I don’t want the bucs to draft old receiver but I think they can get a good one in the second round.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:11 pm
It’s thin if you think only an OG can play OG. Not true. OTs are usually the best athletes because of their footwork. OT Billy Turner will be an excellent OG!
May 6th, 2014 at 3:14 pm
@ctord,
That’s fine, but wouldn’t you agree that percentage-wise, there’s a higher chance of success with drafting a WR at #7, versus in the second round? WR is in my opinion our biggest position of need. It’s the one position we simply can’t afford to miss on. There is no taking chances. That’s how bad we are at WR right now. I would take the sure thing, and Evans and Watkins are as close to sure things as exists in this draft.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:14 pm
Sort of points out the wisdom of trading down if an elite player isn’t availbable to us at 7…..IMO…..elite is Mack,Clowney or Watkins.
Safe bets would be Robinson or Matthews…perhaps Barr.
I’m still hoping for Sammy @ 7
May 6th, 2014 at 3:22 pm
Trade back in the first a few spots and then grab Donald or go O line! Then Martavis Bryant in the 2nd.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:31 pm
@ Hawaiian buc
I would agree with your assessment and I would be happy if the bucs grabbed one of those guys. Evans and Watkins are projected to be studs and that it is a position of need. I was just saying all hope is not lost if the bucs take a top shelf O lineman. which is also a position of need looking at the roster. I am really hoping that the bucs are using Evans to entice a team like the steelers to jump up to seven and the bucs could get some picks. we only have 5 and could use to build some depth.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:42 pm
@ctord,
Bottom line, I’m going to support whatever we do. I just don’t want us to pass on a potential game changer, as we tend to do quite often.
May 6th, 2014 at 3:42 pm
Incognito for league minimum
Jus’ saying
May 6th, 2014 at 4:00 pm
I say trade down pick up an extra pick and than pick Odell Beckham.
May 6th, 2014 at 4:01 pm
Trade up for Johnny let us finally have a franchise QB.
May 6th, 2014 at 4:45 pm
Time to kick start the dialogue with Philly for a future 5th or 6th round draft pick for OG Evan Mathis.
May 6th, 2014 at 5:28 pm
Donald in tha first, trade back in round 2, get a extra 4th or 5th and get Jordan Matthews. Combine our 3rd and extra pick from trading back (4th/5th), trade up into tha 2nd round and get tha best available guard. 5th round pick is a gamble… Seantrel Henderson. Convert him into a guard and wala problems solved
May 6th, 2014 at 5:38 pm
I’ve been reading as many articles as I can find regarding “success rate” or the counter “bust rate” of draft choices by position and by round. Each writer uses different criteria for success/bust, but signs point to things being pretty similar across the board. WRs (according to multiple articles, but one in particular) have actually done very poorly when drafted in the first round between 1998 and 2008 (good sampling, because we can actually see the results of several years as the article was written in 2011, all players had 3 years exp). Only about 36% of WRs drafted in round 1 during that span became “impact” players. While standards were lowered for rounds 2-7 for being a “success”, the players that had (at minimum) a “role” with the team or were starters, rounds 2 and 3 were the best spot to pick them.
Guards were not studied past round one, but had a high success rate in round 1 since so few were actually taken in that 10 year (actually 11, but nobody ever realizes they’re adding an 11th year when doing “1998 to 2008”) span. Basically, either Guards aren’t valued as highly as other positions (I agree with that), or they have to truly stand out to be drafted in the 1st round over other positions (I agree with that too). WRs bust in round 1 more because they’re more “flashy” and have that “wow factor”. It’s easy for NFL teams to see that “flash” and think “great WR”, reach for him in round 1 and have him bust. OG is the much safer pick if you think he’s worth a first round pick, because he probably IS worth a first round pick. WR, QB, RB, DE, sometimes CB all “flash”, which is why teams over-draft them more frequently. Consistency of play in college is a better determining factor than one season of flash, but that’s harder to find with more Junior’s entering the draft and redshirt seasons for college athletes. You may only get 2 years to evaluate a player.
All I can say is be leery of players who were hyped and then fell short their final year of college (Clowney) and players that were never mentioned until mid-way through their final college season (Bortles) because they typically “flashed”, either early or late, and it is unknown if they can maintain that.