Red Flags With Taylor Lewan?
February 19th, 2014
Could Michigan OT Taylor Lewan freefall to the second round because of disturbing off-the-field nonsense?
Joe doesn’t understand why some Bucs fans are abhorrent to drafting a tackle. The Bucs’ offensive line last year wasn’t anything close to the Oakland Raiders’ of the 1970s.
That why Joe is OK with drafting a tackle. Yeah, Joe agrees drafting a guard at No. 7 is a big-time reach.
No, Joe is not jumping on the Donald Penn-is-all-that-is-wrong-with-the-world bandwagon. He played OK last year. Could he play better? Sure. Penn was hardly the problem with the Bucs offensive line. There may not be a better dude on the Bucs than Demar Dotson. He’s one of Joe’s favorites, but he’s a marginal player. Too often he gets bull-rushed like a blocking sled.
That’s why Joe is bullish on a tackle. And one guy to look out for could be Taylor Lewan. Though he is projected to be a first-round pick, Lewan has just enough of a mean off-the-field history that he could slide.
Erik Oehler of National Football Post took a look at all the lines Lewan has crossed, one will make you cringe, but Oehler isn’t totally scared off by Lewan.
Risk: 4/10 (MEDIUM-LOW) – Lewan is difficult to judge. I don’t believe there is enough off-field to have to worry about him getting into trouble there, but it’s still in my mind. The 2009 threat allegations, if true, are psychopath-tier behavior, but as no charges were ever filed, I can’t factor it into the risk too much. And I’m completely dismissing the assault allegations as there, once again, wasn’t enough substatial evidence to press charges. On the field, his passion may get him into trouble in the NFL. The league is less tolerant than ever when it comes to personal fouls (ask Ndamukong Suh). Lewan’s draft stock took a hit in 2013 for sure. But he’s still incredibly physically gifted, and doesn’t have enough red flags where teams will pass on him for too long.
It could be that Lewan is still growing up. Oehler noted that as a sophomore, Lewan got constantly flagged for numbskull personal fouls, among others, but every year since he has been penalized less and less.
Could Lewan drop to the second round? A lot depends on his interviews, and he will get grilled about his off-the-field bullying, especially in the light of the Richie Incognito nonsense.
This is a guy to keep an eye out for on the first night of the draft. He could freefall.
Remember, Penn, 31, is a free agent after the 2015 season. He’s not getting any younger. Why not get a guy now and start grooming him in case Penn can’t answer the bell in what is now the not-so-distant future?
February 19th, 2014 at 12:07 pm
I’d rather have a guard in the second than a tackle in the first. However, there’s a good chance either Robinson or Matthews will be BPA when we pick. I’m fine with a tackle as a BPA pick, but it isn’t really a need yet. The guard situation is a disaster though. We need to do something there big time someway or antoher.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:08 pm
And Lewan is a real dirtbag. I’d pass on him no matter the round.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:14 pm
I would love a first round tackle. That’s where you get your tackles, the first round (meaning: screw Dominick)
February 19th, 2014 at 12:24 pm
This guy seems like a Richey Incognito Jr. just waiting to happen. Why not just get the original? Or, Joe do you think Lewan will be cheaper and better in the long run?
February 19th, 2014 at 12:31 pm
@JOE: Why the lack of new helmet/logo/uniform? coverage? one post?
I need some news!
February 19th, 2014 at 12:32 pm
@Fuzzy
Incognito is a guard not a tackle.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:40 pm
You can find decent OG’s all day long in FA, but OT’s are a different story. It’s a fact that playing LT is the hardest position to play on the o-line. Next, is RT, center, and then both guards. Sometimes when RT’s start to digress, and depending on their size, they are switched to guard to prolong their careers. So it only makes since to draft an OT before an OG, especially in the first round. Also, the outside tackles are normally very tall and usually have longer arms and can operate better in space. Their size makes them more rare than the average OG.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:43 pm
Definatley pick him if he falls to the second round however, I dont see that happening. This is going to be a very interesting draft for us, I hope Licht has a really good plan.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:44 pm
How about a tackle in the 1st & a guard in the 2nd. Of course depending on FA.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:44 pm
He was referencing character not position you twit
February 19th, 2014 at 12:47 pm
@Getaclue,
Who are you talking to?
February 19th, 2014 at 12:49 pm
I am of the Rock Star mentality when it comes to the O-line. High 1st rd picks should be reserved for ‘skill’ position players that are NEEDED by the team. I don’t see the need to spend a high 1st rd pick on even the best of O-line players because of how our O-line was put together:
Penn – played in 112 gms, FA/signed off Minn practice squad
Carl Nicks – played in 73 gms, drafted in 5th rd/signed as FA
Jerremy Zuttah – played in 90 gms. drafted in 3rd rd
Davin Joseph – played in 100 gms, drafted in 1st rd
Demar Dotson – played in 54 gms. not drafted, signed as college FA
Only one 1st rd player, all others either FA or middle rd picks. Yes, of course, in hind sight we sucked mostly bc of injuries. But the beginning of the year expectations were very high; some felt we would have one of the best O-lines in the entire NFL. Injuries played a major role in the demise of “what could have been”.
Injuries work the other way too. Look at Jake Long, drafter #2 behind Matt Ryan. And not living up to expectations plays into O-line players just as it does with QBs, etc; remember Kenyatta Walker, drafted #9 overall?
If a team is going to take a chance on a high 1st rd draft pick, it needs to get some bang for its buck with a skill position player like QB, DE and maybe a special WR in particular
February 19th, 2014 at 12:51 pm
Hey Harry,
So, you think we should REACH, and draft a frail QB, only to be completely beat down because his O-Line can’t block?
I’d rather get an O-Line that can get the job done.
Greg Robinson/Jake Mathews, come on down. The price is oh so right.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:53 pm
“Oil Derrick Brooks Says”
OK my bad, don’t we need a guard too though? Why not load up on douche bags?
February 19th, 2014 at 12:54 pm
I would sign Richey Incognito in a heart beat (after the heat dies down). He would be incredibly cheap – maybe veterans minimum, and he is one of the best guards in the NFL. When he came to the Doll-fins he was on a very short leash as well bc of his previous bad behavior, and he played really well. This is a very cheap signing that would be big.
February 19th, 2014 at 12:55 pm
Forgive my ignorance but I haven’t read that much about Nix this offseason.
I keep reading about our horrendous guard play and I have to agree it was pathetic in 2013. But is there no chance Nicks will return? Even if Nix returned at 90% it would be a dramatic improvement over last year.
Davin is getting older but OL can play later in life. They’re not like running backs. Has everybody given up on Davin’s knee?
Just curious. I know it’s wishful thinking on my part but what if Joseph and Nicks returned to even decent if not all pro form. We could surely use an edge rusher.
That is my fantasy. I want an edge rusher!!! At this point I don’t even care if it’s Clowney or Mack or whomever, I just don’t want to depend on Bowers to provide any excitement. Clayborn is a decent DE but we need a dynamic, momentum changing edge rusher.
February 19th, 2014 at 1:01 pm
@stevek (MGM) Says:
“So, you think we should REACH, and draft a frail QB, only to be completely beat down because his O-Line can’t block?”
Whats the matter SteveK, can’t discuss anything but Johnny Football? And since you are soooo intelligent, explain to me how it is a reach when EVERY mock draft has 3 QBs going in the top 10?
I was discussing O-line, not whether we need a REAL FRANCHISE QB. IMO, Penn is fine, we can sign one or two FA guards or use a 2nd rd pick, Zuttah and Dotson are more than adequate
February 19th, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Meh Says
“I’d rather have a guard in the second than a tackle in the first. However, there’s a good chance either Robinson or Matthews will be BPA when we pick. I’m fine with a tackle as a BPA pick, but it isn’t really a need yet. The guard situation is a disaster though. We need to do something there big time someway or another.”
I can’t say I disagree with this logic. With Joseph aging and Nicks uncertain, Guard has to be the most important spot on the offensive line.
I can see a need at both tackles, but just not as large a need.
Really, except for Center with Zuttah, the entire line needs a turnover unless Nicks can come back and excel.
February 19th, 2014 at 1:11 pm
I told you guys we can’t draft Taylor Lewan. Wlliam Gholston would just punch him out again!lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqrFztA9boo
February 19th, 2014 at 1:12 pm
Dominick theory? You see what that gets you, fired.
Look at all the best rated o-lineman. They’re first round picks. Joe Thomas? Joe Staley? Jake Long? Ryan Clady? Duane Brown? Russel Okung?
February 19th, 2014 at 1:22 pm
Why don’t we draft the best players available in rounds 1 and 2(hopefully Watkins or a DE in the 1st or OL) then… like Lovie said spend up to the cap to get the rest of our needs. There is Macklin/Decker out there for WRs, Peppers, Greg Hardy, or Jared Allen for DEs, and plenty of good O linemen. If we could get 1 each of the WRs OLs or DEs listed here (depending on our draft/free agency depends who goes where) then add our best players available we should be decently set up. We have options. Just wait to draft a QB. I think next years draft is deeper for QB.
February 19th, 2014 at 1:51 pm
Lewan dropping out of the first round is about as likely as Clowney making it to the seventh pick. In other words, only in your dreams.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:02 pm
Some of the biggest O-line draft busts:
Kenyetta Walker, 2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 14th
Mike Williams, 2002 Buffalo Bills 4th overall
Jeff Faine, 2003 Cleveland Browns, 23rd overall (at least as he relates to CLE)
Kwame Harris, 2003 San Francisco 49ers, 26th overall
Robert Gallery, 2004 Oakland Raiders, 2nd overall
Alex Baron, 2005 St. Louis Rams, 19th overall
Chris Williams, 2008 Chicago Bears, 14th overall (Lovie!)
Jason Smith, 2009 St. Louis Rams, 2nd overall
Geeze, MGMers, I thought it was only QBs that failed at such a HIGH rate!
@ODB: I think unforeseen injuries and drafting badly is what gets you fired. My earlier point was you have to use middle rd picks and FA somewhere, so IMO, I would use it on the Oline. High 1st rd picks are for skill positions like QBs, WR and DE, etc, again, IMO
February 19th, 2014 at 2:06 pm
James Pearlman:
What more is there to report? Bucs said helmet/logo change to be announced Thursday.
Frankly, Joe is depressed about this. The helmets were fine. There really is no good reason to change them. Smacks of a cheap gimmick.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:07 pm
@Harry
That’s not a bad turn-over margin compared to how many have been chosen that still remain as the starters. If anything, it shows how rare it is to find that perfect LT and RT. similar to the QB’s in that regard.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:09 pm
@ODB: btw, using YOUR examples, where is Jake Long? Why is he no longer with the Doll-fans? How come Russell Okung only played in 8 games in 2013?
Not trying to be nit picky with you my friend. My point here is injuries happen to all NFL draft pick/players, like with Nicks and Joseph. We had two major Pro Bowlers go down. My feeling is if either one stayed at the high level of play, who knows where we would end up, and maybe Dom is still here. AND the Rock Star’s way of building an O-line works.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:13 pm
@Joe: What are your feelings on signing Incognito? I think he would be a steal, for obvious reasons; probably could be signed at vet’s min. And if the Glazers might be ok with signing Vick, heck, Incognito was (wrongfully?) loved by his teammates in MIA.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:20 pm
who the heck is nicks. is he on the team?
he should be manning the buffet line.
just noticed Joseph and Penn are on the “may be cut list” on NFL.com
makes sense, unless they take a pay cut. given what they have shown in recent times both would be atking a pay cut here or elsewhere. further more would you want a malcontent over the hill on your team?
we need to see some OL FA’s being signed ASAP.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:22 pm
The only OTs worth taking in the first round to me are Robinson & Matthews.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:27 pm
@Harry.
We disagree. Most of all the truly great OT’s are first rounders. Look at the grades for OTs right now. It’s full of first rounders.
Now if you want to talk about guards, centers and safeties in later rounds, then I agree. But, for a top shelf LT to be on your team for the next decade plus? First round is the best way to go, imo.
These numbers are from 2010 (back to 1993), and look at top 16 drafted OT’s and their success rates vs. QBs and DEs (found on Walterfootball, but #’s don’t lie)
Position
No. of Prospects Hits Busts OKs TBAs
QBs 29 13 12 2 2
Defensive Tackles 33 15 15 2 1
Offensive Tackles 31 18 5 3 5
Quarterback Hit Rate: 48.2%
Defensive Tackle Hit Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Hit Rate: 69.2%
Quarterback Bust Rate: 44.4%
Defensive Tackle Bust Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Bust Rate: 19.2%
There’s plenty of great WR’s found in mid rounds – Anquan Boldin (2nd), Vincent Jackson (2nd), Steve Smith (3rd), Marques Colston (7th!). I could go on, but, don’t feel like continuing to search.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:39 pm
@ODB:
Good post; interesting stuff. To use one aspect of it, I read an article recently where the writer researched (to death – he gave soooo much info) the success rate of where QBs are drafted. He even broke down the 1st rd into segments. Really good stuff…
Highest success rate was for QBs chosen in the first 7 picks. I don’t recall it exactly, but around the 50% you said. Beyond the top 7 picks was like less then 15%. This is my biggest reason for wanting to draft one this year (as you know, I am for moving up if need be). I just don’t think we will see this opportunity again for many years.
If MG8 fails to live up to what we need, then what do we do in future years? We all agree FA doesn’t get you anything and middle round picks for a QB are a total gamble. If we are drafting in the middle of the round, how can we then afford to trade picks to move up if we can’t do it now when we are only at 7?
February 19th, 2014 at 2:44 pm
Harry:
Why would you want to sign that cancer? The Rams were doing backflips when they dumped him and that was a team in need of o-linemen.
February 19th, 2014 at 2:58 pm
@Joe
Really just for the reasons I stated. I am a Bucs fan, but have followed the Doll-fans since Shulas days. When Incognito played for them, he was one of the best guards in the league, probably still is. He also knew he was on his last leg back then, as you point out, so he was on his best behavior with the Dolphins until the Martin incident. In addition, we could sign him for Vets Min, I am sure.
So if you feel Incognito is a cancer (and I agree, he is an ass, I don’t know about the “cancer” part), isn’t this Lewan in the same boat? Bad behavior, bad attitude. But we like that in our linemen, no? You know what you are getting with Rickie, you keep a very short leash on him, and he would come cheap.
I am not being a smart zzz, but tell me why I am wrong? Politically incorrect?
February 19th, 2014 at 3:20 pm
Harry:
If you dont know why you are wrong, there is no point in discussing it.
February 19th, 2014 at 3:24 pm
Joe,
I was asking an honest question, but whatever. Is it controversial, yes. More controversial than when the Eagles signed Vick? NO. That was about as controversial as it gets. Sorry to bother you with my question.
February 19th, 2014 at 6:07 pm
Nice homework on the Prospects Hits Rate vs Busts Rate by Position.
[Let the Chorus Sing:]
-Women Lie, Men Lie
-Women Lie, Men Lie
-Women Lie, Men Lie
***The numbers don’t lie****
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdsdObXA2Gk
February 19th, 2014 at 6:08 pm
Hit Rate vs Bust Rate
February 19th, 2014 at 8:36 pm
Meh Says:
February 19th, 2014 at 12:07 pm
I’d rather have a guard in the second than a tackle in the first. However, there’s a good chance either Robinson or Matthews will be BPA when we pick. I’m fine with a tackle as a BPA pick, but it isn’t really a need yet. The guard situation is a disaster though. We need to do something there big time someway or antoher.
Meh Says:
February 19th, 2014 at 12:08 pm
And Lewan is a real dirtbag. I’d pass on him no matter the round
++++++
Drafting any OG before round 3 is borderline insane. Good tackles are a rarity, good guards can be found in round 5 and beyond.
As for Lewan being a dirtbag, you’re right. I too prefer my offensive linemen to be passive gentleman…errr. wait… dirtbag offensive lineman? I’m on board if there is any way (and there isn’t) he slides to round 2 or we trade back in round 1.
February 19th, 2014 at 10:25 pm
@Harry:
I wasted a few hours researching all of the quarterbacks chosen in the first round in the last twenty years. (1993-2013). I would be happy to post some of the percentages if anyone is interested. If my numbers are correct, there have been a total of 51 QB’s chosen in the first round during that time, and they have played an aggregate of 384 seasons. 28 of these were picked within the first 7 picks of the first round. There have also been 13 QB’s chosen as the very first pick of the first round.
tickrdr
February 19th, 2014 at 11:18 pm
@tickrdr Says:
“…I wasted a few hours researching all of the quarterbacks chosen in the first round in the last twenty years. (1993-2013)…”
Sure, tickrdr, I would be interested. No such thing as a waste of time if you have good info and if you enjoyed yourself. I mean, we waste a lot of time in here, so whats the difference.
But my interests are more in line with how rapidly the success rate of QBs drafted goes down the lower they are chosen in the draft. In the article I read, it was insane how fast it went down.
February 20th, 2014 at 12:26 am
@Harry:
As noted above, there have been 51 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL draft in the last 20 years. You are correct that their AVERAGE performance does improve somewhat the closer you get to the top of that round, but not as much as you might think. For instance, those 51 players have played an aggregate total of 384 seasons. If I were to pick an arbitrary QB rating as a standard against which to measure their performance, say 83.9 as an example to just pick a number out of the blue…… then there were 120 total seasons where those first-rounders had a rating higher than 83.9 (120/384=31.2%). Please note, this is any season ever in their career, not just their rookie seasons.
Or stated the opposite way, that means that almost 69% of those seasons resulted in a QB rating less than 83.9. Looking at the individual players, there were 17 (17/51=33%) who NEVER had a single season with a rating greater than 83.9 in their entire careers!
Let’s also pick an arbitrary number of TD passes in a single season…..oh say 19. Out of those same 384 seasons, only 114 (114/384=30%) seasons resulted in that many TD’s. And 21 of those players (21/51=41.1%) never had a single season with at least that many TD’s. And another 9 players had a single season with 19 or more TD’s. Not even if they played 16 games. The numbers are even worse when you look for seasons with a TD/INT ratio greater than 2.1 (19/9)…… only 57 total seasons out of that 384 = 14.8%…… any season in their career, not just their rookie campaigns.
Now these are taking ALL first rounders, even those chosen later in the first round like Daunte Culpepper (11th), Ben Roethlisberger (11th), and Aaron Rodgers (24th), so the numbers MUST be better when you are talking about the studs taken near the top of the round? Actually they do improve……… somewhat.
Anybody interested?
tickrdr
February 20th, 2014 at 8:55 am
@tickrdr
that is very cool info. You did a ton of research, obviously. Thanks for all the information.