Greg Schiano No. 12
June 29th, 2012
"I will be around for another year, won't I Mr. Glazer?"
The one thing a new coach in the NFL has is a honeymoon. Aside from a couple of malcontents more interested in left-handed cigarettes (allegedly), spinning discs pool-side in Las Vegas and turning practices into alcohol-free happy hours, most Buccaneers seem to be buying in to the New Schiano Order.
It was new Bucs coach Greg Schiano who has told his team, in so many words, the quicker you buy in the quicker wins will come.
So it was a bit surprising that when Eric Edholm of SportingNews.com, by way of Yahoo! Sports, listed all the NFL coaches in terms of job security and has Schiano only listed at No. 12.
12. Greg Schiano, Buccaneers
2011 record: 0-0
All-time record: 0-0
Seasons as head coach: NoneThe Buccaneers don’t intend to hit the reset button again, not after taking steps backwards as a franchise under Raheem Morris and fans starting to pine for Jon Gruden. The choice of Schiano wasn’t universally lauded, and the recent history of college coaches (Jim Harbaugh notwithstanding) has been a bit murky. But he’ll have every opportunity to set his plan in motion this season and build with an eye toward the future. There are expectations that QB Josh Freeman could regain his mojo, perhaps soon, which speeds up the process a bit for Schiano. But it would be stunning if GM Mark Dominik did an end around and let go of his new coach after a single season.
What Schiano needs to do to keep his job in 2013: Not look like most college coaches who stumble in this league. If Freeman improves at all, getting back closer to what he did in 2010, it’s a great start. Winning 3-4 games should just about ensure Schiano is back, although Freeman playing better almost certainly would result in more victories than that. Unless, that is, the defense incredibly found a way to get worse …
Unless something goes horribly awry, Joe just cannot fathom Schiano not lasting more than a year. He’s not a cradle-robbing, home-wrecking fraud like Bobby Petrino, though Joe has heard a respected voice in the NFL compare Schiano to Petrino.
Joe simply can’t imagine Schiano not being the Bucs coach in 2013. That’s why Joe is surprised by the No. 12 ranking.
June 29th, 2012 at 11:12 am
That list is about right, for the first 12 coaches anyway.
Looking at numbers 11 thru 1, and say the respective team only wins 2 or 3 games this year, playing their anticipated starting QB for at least 12 games, the only disagreements I have are John Fox and Ron Rivera being less secure than Schiano.
If Manning plays 12 games or more, and Fox can’t get more than 3 wins (not saying I think that will happen), then I could see him out. Same could be said for Rivera/Newton, especially if Newton takes a big step backwards as well.
But I would think the other 9 coaches on that list ahead of Schiano would be more likely to survive a 3-13 season than Schiano (not making a predicton of record, nor even saying that Schiano will be fired if the Bucs go 3-13, just saying those other coaches are in a better position should their teams go 3-13).
June 29th, 2012 at 11:39 am
FeemanBomb:
[Joe touched upon this earlier in the week. Please don’t highjack threads. If you have a link that is of interest, please instead email Joe. Thanks. — Joe.]
June 29th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Kind of a joke to even be talking about Schiano as lasting only a year. Unless the whole thing melts down out of the gate and he looks like the next Raheem Morris, he’s got 3 years, easily… Who is the “respected voice in the NFL” who is comparing him to Bobby Petrino? And, if this person is serious about the comparison, I would *love* to hear about the alleged similarities. That ought to be entertaining.
June 29th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Freemanbomb5
You are a day late and a dollar short on the Talib story.
June 29th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Further, on this notion of the failures of college coaches to transition… I would venture a guess that the success rate of college coaches rising to NFL head coaches is probably similar to that of coordinators hired to NFL head coaches. Most new head coaches fail to turn around programs, regardless of where they come from… So, the whole college coach problem is really a red herring… I mean, they come from college ranks, coordinator ranks, or they’re NFL HC retreads. The success rate of retreads isn’t great either.
Instead of all this garbage people say about college coaches, I would love to see actual stats over the last 20 years of the winning pct. of those 3 sources of NFL coaches… I’d like to see the length of time they remain in the job on average, and I’d like to see their playoff appearance pct. as well as their playoff winning pct… I doubt we’d see a great disparity among the 3 groups.
June 29th, 2012 at 12:44 pm
I agree with George, that the success rate of colleges coaches jumping to the NFL is probably about the same as the over all success rate of new head coaches. I think the reason people feel that it’s less is that of the 3 groups that George referenced, is that College Coaches are more so associated with winning than the other two groups. Coordinators are noted for success (not necessarily winning) on their side of the ball, and if retreads were associated with winning, they probably wouldn’t be retreads, they’d be current coaches.
So when College coaches come to the NFL and are no longer winning as much (which is an adjustment they have to get used as well, not too many college coaches would consider 5 or 6 losses a “good season”), they are more heavily scrutinized.
Also George, to your question about the respect NFL voice comparing Schiano to Petrino, I’ve heard Tim Ryan on “Moving the Chains” make that reference, although he was quoting his “trusted sources”, unnamed of course, not necessarily voicing his own opinion (although Ryan has made that reference multiple times, and when you hear him talk about the Bucs, he doesn’t sound too optimistic about them this year, using words like struggle and hard-road when describing their season).
I believe Joe has referenced Tim Ryan before.
June 29th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
That Petrino comparison has been made by Tim Ryan on Sirius Radio. I’ve heard him say it a few times, but he never provides any specific facts as to why the comparison is made, other than they both came from college. Personality wise, there is nothing about Schiano that reminds me of Petrino. Chip Kelly seems the better comparison to Petrino.
June 29th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
I don’t see Schiano being much higher than 10 so number 12 is an okay ranking. I think if the Panthers and Bucs finish with the same horrible record, I believe Rivera gets fired BEFORE Schiano does. As for John Fox, if Denver flops, it’s probably John Elway’s fault because his fingerprints are all over that roster.. still, John isn’t likely to be going anywhere if Denver flops.
I think the likely scenario of the Bucs firing Schiano is if we see a full-scale players revolt like the one that nearly got Coughlin fired twice from the Giants. Of course winning Super Bowls ended all of that talk but if Schiano is a complete hard ass and the team is still competitive, perhaps he gets fired.
June 29th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Remember Raheem’s first season? Even when he WON he lost because the wins were meaningless and it cost them a shot at SUH (then again, boy band general manager Mark Dominik would have taken McCoy anyway if they were both on the board. His words.)
The point is, if Radio Raheem survived that first season despite blowing the quarterback competition between Byron and Luke and firing both his offensive and defensive coordinators then there is no reason to think that GS wouldn’t get through 1 year.
June 29th, 2012 at 1:51 pm
The ONLY thing Schiano and Petrino have in common is they’re both male football coaches. Schiano has little things like character, honesty, and responsibility, things Petrino doesn’t even know the meaning of.
June 29th, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Winning is the best deodorant.
June 29th, 2012 at 6:27 pm
This dude is obviously clueless… Dominik is not firing anybody and if the team doesn’t succeed this year it will Mark hitting the road not Schiano..
June 29th, 2012 at 9:53 pm
I hate it when reporters/bloggers point at the college coach failure rate.
More head coaches that are promoted from the NFL fail each year than college coaches coming to the NFL do. As a matter of fact, there’s at good chance that any year a college coach failed as an nfl head coach, at least three times that many non-college coaches failed.
June 30th, 2012 at 9:48 am
Pete:
Why do you hate facts?
Feel free to cite success rates of college-to-NFL coaches the past 20 years, and compare same statistics to NFL assistants being promoted.
July 5th, 2012 at 5:26 pm
I think Schiano brings a winning formula to this franchise. Maybe not at the NFL level but he has the tools you look for in a winning head coach. My perception of the interveiw footage Ive seen, and his bio is he has a perfect blend of Dungy/Gruden both of which I loved as head coaches. I hope we at least win our division, with the debacle in New Orleans and the talent on our team to beat the rest of our division.