Caution Flag For Doug Martin
June 22nd, 2012
One of the freshest breaths of air for Joe in the New Schiano Order is the drafting of first round pick Doug Martin.
The few times Joe has had a chance to talk to Muscle Hamster, he’s really a cool guy. Always wears a smile on his face, not unlike Hines Ward. Dude just loves football, and Joe supposes given his less than towering height, Martin loves to prove people wrong about how smaller players can’t play football.
Bradenton Herald columnist Alan Dell isn’t yet buying Martin as the next Ray Rice, however. Dell points to Muscle Hamster’s high school recruiting and Boise State’s soft schedule as caution flags for Bucs fans’ expectations for Martin.
Among the 32 first-round picks in this year’s NFL draft, Martin was the lowest-rated player coming out of high school by Phil Steele’s magazine, which is commonly known as the most accurate college football prognostication publication in the country.
Martin was rated the 279th best running back by Steele and one of just three first-round picks in 2012 who was not rated among the top 100 at their positions during their senior year of high school.
The others are defensive lineman Shea McClain (also from Boise State) and Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden, who at 28 years old is an anomaly.
While Dell has a point about Boise State’s schedule, there is little a school can do about its conference. A school has to be invited to join a conference; it can’t pick or choose and there is no logical reason a big-time conference would want Boise State.
In its non-conference schedule, Boise State always played a top-notch opponent. And when the Broncos played Georgia at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in 2011, a virtual home game for the Bulldogs, Muscle Hamster fared well against a team that if memory serves Joe later played in the SEC Championship game.
Oh, and Boise State beat Georgia 35-21.
As for his high school recruiting ranking, well, Rivals and that type Joe will rant on some other time (and Joe used to be a Rivals subscriber). But let’s not forget that there was this quarterback from northern California who didn’t receive one Division-I offer and had to play juco ball. Yeah, some guy named Aaron Rodgers.
Joe also seems to recall Steve Smith having to go the juco route as well. So Joe isn’t going to sweat Martin’s college recruiting rankings as a harbinger of doom in the NFL. After all, how many five- and four-star recruits didn’t amount to a hill of beans in college ball? Does the name “Willie Williams” ring a bell? How about “Fred Rouse?”
Remember: New York Giants general manager Jerry Reese, largely regarded as one of the top executives in the NFL, was allegedly ready to draft Muscle Hamster before Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik pounced in with a trade to swoop up Martin.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Clay Matthews – walk on.
J.J. Watt – walked on at Wisconsin after transferring from Central Michigan (I think it was Central Michigan, may have been Western Michigan).
Both first round picks, both have had huge success in the NFL (may be a bit premature to say that about Watt but he was one of the best defensive linemen in the league last year, regardless of experience). In this day and age there’s so much talent across the country it’s hard to pinpoint who will go on to blossom into an elite college player. Bodies are still developing, players are still honing their style. Interesting to see he was the lowest rated but I’m with you Joe. I would put very little (if any) stock into this.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Oooooh. He wasn’t highly ranked in highschool. Who gives a flying 3*$%? Martin is a beast.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:32 pm
The only thing that worries me when I went back and watched his film was that all of his impressive runs did not come in between the tackles but where always outside near the sidelines. if you go back and watch his highlights he ran exclusively tosses, sweeps, and pitches with great success but no inside runs like iso. was that because the coaches knew we was not a good inside runner or did they just want to play to his strengths? whatever the case may be, if he is planning to be the every down, or “bell cow”, running back he is going to need to master inside as well as the outside running plays that are called. I think he can pull it off given the chance.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:40 pm
The only thing that worries me when I went back and watched his film was that all of his impressive runs did not come in between the tackles but where always outside near the sidelines. if you go back and watch his highlights he ran exclusively tosses, sweeps, and pitches with great success but no inside runs like iso. was that because the coaches knew we was not a good inside runner or did they just want to play to his strengths? whatever the case may be, if he is planning to be the every down, or “bell cow”, running back he is going to need to master inside as well as the outside running plays that are called and I think he can pull it off given the chance. given all of that, I will be rooting for him to be that special back I think he can be.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:49 pm
To pile on, LaDanian Tomlinson had two offers out of HS, TCU and Baylor, most recruiting services barely had him on their radar… look how that turned out.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:49 pm
He has talent and heart with no glaring injury concerns at this point. That tells me he won’t suck. Is he worth the 1st round pick? Time will tell, but I liked it.
I think we’ll be ok.
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Martin running more to the outside in college tells me that they may not have had the strongest O-line for running inside. It doesn’t speak to Martin’s ability to run inside. He can run anywhere there’s blocking.
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Living in Hawaii, I have watched a lot of Boise State, both on TV and in person. Make no mistake, their offensive line is very good, especially against their competition. However, this guy can definitely break tackles, and has some speed as well. Coming from Boise, you can guarantee he has been well coached, and is a winner. People don’t realize how good Boise State really is. Year after year they go on the road and destroy big name schools. That Georgia game wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. They really are that good. There’s no way to know for sure until the games begin, but I think he will be a very good pro, especially running behind our offensive line.
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:16 pm
I wonder where Tom Brady ranked in High School. Not to mention, a lot can change in 4 years, from 18 to 22, boys to men.
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:22 pm
To me this points to his work ethic…they are still basically kids in high school and I would hate to be judged solely on who I was coming out of high school. What this tells me is he worked his tail off in college to become a very productive player. The kid played special teams when he got there freshman year, and sophmore year he started playing defense. He did anything to help his team win. Injury to another RB a couple games into his sophmore year got him playing time and he never let that opportunity slip away.
Its crazy to say high school scouting reports have weight in the NFL. Maybe college but a lot can happen in that span. If you look back at the nations top recruits few of them play in NFL and fewer start. I am not worried about Martin, and even if he is never a productive player for us he is already pushing Blount to another level, he is already an asset to this team.
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Speaking as a subscriber to the paper Dell writes for: Alan Dell = Idiot. The man’s columns are typically as deep as a puddle and typically always goes after the low hanging fruit.
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Andre Reed, Kutztown State….
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:08 pm
for whatever it’s worth Doug Martin avg’d 4 yards a carry vs. quality teams and 6.5 yard a carry vs. the lesser teams.
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:09 pm
andrew- if you look at martin run his feet never stop (heighlights from youtube) he is shifty and always moving north and south he will be just fine inside , he sets up blocks carefully taken his next hole , and as far as offensive schemes boise state ran a spread offense wich means very rarely does the QB just hand off to the RB from under center , the man is a talent and not just at running
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Della’s story could’ve been written about Ray Rice….which to me adds to the similarities between Rice and Martin.
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:50 pm
I like how everyone keeps mentioning how “small” Martin is. Here’s a list (just off the top of my head) of good NFL RBs that he is larger than:
– Frank Gore, Ray Rice, MJD, DeAngelo Williams, etc…
The dude is a beast!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:11 pm
This may be one of the dumbest points I’ve seen a reporter make (not you Joe, the idiot you’re commentating on. Thanks for point this out. I’ll know that everything that this guy ever writes should be trashed). Who gives a rat’s a@$ how he was recruited in High School. As a Gator Alumn, I had to live through the misery of John Brantley (go ahead pile it on Noles fan. Can’t we all just get along? Go Bucs! See we can find common ground). He was one of the most highly touted QB’s coming out of high school. He should’ve never left. So that makes sense, let’s evaluate a guy based on how he was recruited at 17. Alright I’m done, I’m having a hard time dumbing myself down to that idiot’s I mean reporter’s train of thought. I think I’m being too kind just calling him a reporter. He should be Perezhilton.com’s NFL correspondent. Maybe he can start evaluating players on how they dress. “Pitty the fool.”
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:57 pm
I like the Martin pick, but Jerry Reese of Giants wanting to draft Muscle Hamster is just a rumor generated out of message boards and draftniks as they followed our pick with David Wilson. It is VERY possible they were targeting David Wilson all along.
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Everybody had Martin as the #2 ranked back. Doubt if they were targeting Wilson.
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:16 pm
What college tape are you watching to think he only runs outside? He had just as many runs right up the gut and he doesn’t back down if there is a LB in his lane. I’d look for some more youtube videos.
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Jessup is absolutely right. Martin is very effective running inside.
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:25 pm
@Bobby: And you know that how? Are you insider to 32 teams of the league?
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:37 pm
@Jonny 3.3,
While I totally agree with you that you never know how each team ranks the position, by most experts opinion Martin was the clear cut #2 back in the league. Again, that doesn’t mean Martin was #2 on the Giants board, but it would probably be a pretty good bet. Obviously, we will probably never know the truth, but more than likely the Giants would have drafted Martin. Regardless, at this point, all that matters is production on the field.
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:39 pm
So by that reasoning the Bucs should just get rid of Martin and bring back Dominik’s beloved Kregg Lumpkin, who Mark continually touted as the highest rated RB coming out of HS. Real insightful reporter there, what an idiot.
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Dan:
Joe has season tickets to FSU and can tell you Brantley was screwed from the day he stepped onto campus at Gainesville. He was one of the nation’s best pocket passers and Urban Meyer tried to turn him from a pocket passer into an run-option quarterback. That’s on Meyer. Joe has ALWAYS believed good coaches mold their offenses/defenses to highlight the best talents of their players, not to shoehorn a player into a system that he is not fit for.
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Watching Doug Martin’s college highlights leaves me with nothing spectacular. He seems like a solid well rounded player who may be in the league a long time. Nothing more.
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:03 am
After 3 games, I hope the naysayers will have the guts to say they were wrong. Martin is going to be an outstanding player. Go Bucs!
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:53 am
Who cares about how HIGHLY he was ranked coming out of high school… it’s just a stupid comment..
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:08 am
High school playing prowess directly affects NFL ability? That’s a brand new one to me.
Marshall Faulk had only one division 1 offer to play RB, San Diego St. LSU recruited him… as a CB. College playing schedule is not a huge deal either. Tomlinson and Faulk both went to Non-BCS schools and those two are without question the best RBs to play in the last 15 years.
Bryce Brown was the highest rated RB in the nation 4 years ago… the Eagles picked him in round 7 (and that was a huge reach) in this past draft. He totalled less than 500 yards rushing… IN HIS CAREER. Brown is a huge longshot to make the Eagles roster.
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Joe:
We could go back and forth on Brantley, and I don’t necessarily disagree with you about Meyer screwing Brantley. I’ll go a step further though. Yes Meyer is to blame but Addazio even more so. He’s terrible. Meyer’s offense worked just fine with Leak, also a pocket passer because Meyer had a capable OC that could make it work. Mullen new how to utilize a pocket passer in Meyer’s version of the spread. It’s just like you said, good coaches know how to mold their systems around their players. Brantley never grasped the run-pass read, and that severely messed him up mentally to the point it ruined his ability to pass read. And lining him out as a wide receiver on more than a couple plays a game was about as dumb as you can get. First you cut your field in half because they know you’re not going to run that way or pass to him, which is why CB’s would always cheated inside when we did that. On top of that fact we may have thrown the ball like 5% of the time in the formation, which means we’re telling the defense “Hey guys we’re not throwing the ball.”
The overall point I was trying to make was I think reinforced by you. Why wasn’t Martin highly touted out of HS? Maybe he didn’t have good coaching. Maybe he was late to develop. Just as a player can improve, a player can regress. The bottom line was a damn fine back in college. That makes what he did in high school at this point irrelevant. That what makes the fact the Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round irrelevant. That’s why some analysts may point to what the guy did in high school, no respected analyst will ever cite how a guy was recruited in college as evidence he won’t be a good player. Some analysts may even look at that as a positive. They may say he proved his detractors wrong and proved he can play and deserved to be more highly recruited. Or he showed his ability to improve by going from a lowly recruited back to one of the top backs in the draft class.
Great site Joe. Used to be a pig Pewter Report fan, but they’ve gone so downhill. Coincides with you coming around, Jim Flynn leaving (Charlie Campbell was awful, don’t know if you like him but if you do, sorry he was awful), and that crappy redesigned website they put together. Keep up it up. And can you please summons Rachel Watson somehow. I got a great business idea (bout to finish my MBA so I think of these things). How about a Joebucsfan.com swimsuit calendar, with Rachel Watson on the front cover. You could recruit former Bucs cheerleaders or just regular Bucs fans worthy of being on the “JoeBucsfan.com Swimsuit Edition Calendar”. Would be a great seller. Plus, just think. You’d get to coordinate a swimsuit calendar with Rachel Watson. That’s a lot of time together.
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:06 pm
This guy has got to be freaking kidding. When I graduated high school I weighed 95lbs. Four years later I weighed 230. What you are in high school is no indication of what you will be in real adult life.
How many high schools have complete weight rooms and strength coaches? Almost all colleges with football programs have these.
June 24th, 2012 at 5:02 pm
@Miguel….that weight gain was from the munchies???