Numbers Geek Stressed Over Bucs Offense
October 7th, 2011
Joe has made it abundantly clear that he’s turned off by the numbers crowd when it comes to sports. They have done their best to ruin Joe’s enjoyment of baseball and thus far, fortunately, they have been unable to infest football.
Why does Joe hate the numbers crowd? Part of it has to do with nuns and rulers which Joe doesn’t want to get into right now. Part of it is something Joe learned in high school that someone can take numbers and statistics and twist them in such a manner that they could “prove” Hitler is in the White House Hank Williams, Jr. is a tolerant soul of a political analyst.
So it was with a bit of enjoyment that Joe heard a numbers guy call “The Opening Drive” yesterday morning with co-hosts Bob Papa and Ross Tucker, heard exclusively on SiriusXM NFL Radio. Audibly shaken in his belief that the Bucs have abandoned the deep pass, and armed with an array of statistics, this caller wanted to know if it’s the defenses the Bucs have faced that have taken away the long pass, or if Bucs offensive coordinator Greg Olson abandoned such plays.
Tucker, in short, wasn’t buying what the stat guy was selling.
“First, coaches don’t look at the game like you do. They look at each game as its own entity, like it’s own version of a little season. Second, if Arrelious Benn doesn’t step out of bounds Monday night, that skewers all of your numbers.
“Then you have to look at the defenses the Bucs played. Minnesota and Indianapolis play almost exclusively Tampa-2. Those teams shut off the long pass and give up the short passes. That’s why you saw the Bucs dump passes over the middle to Earnest Graham Monday night. Those plays were there all night.”
Tucker went on to say that the reasons the Bucs haven’t thrown much downfield is a combination of factors, including how Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman hasn’t been completely accurate in some games, how defenses have shut off the long pass for the most part, and how defenses are determined to lock up Mike Williams, thereby taking away the Bucs’ best deep threat.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Statistically Josh Freeman is the second most accurate passer in the game if you remove drops, kneel downs, and throw aways from his attempts. Still, the ones he has been inaccurate on have looked really inaccurate. Couple that with a few very bad decisions and it makes one seem like they have an accuracy issue. But I do no believe he does.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Just win baby.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
LOL!
October 7th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
The Bucs are doing what every NFL offense does: taking what the defense gives them. So far, opposing defenses have been content to give the short passing game. This has allowed the Bucs to have quite a few long 5-10 minute drives down the field. I honestly don’t care what the defense gives us…as long as we take advantage of it.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Homeruns and Hail Marys sure do bring a lot of excitement.
For me, I get most excited when I see a defense take over a ball game. I can care less about loft fantasy numbers. Let’s just go out there on offense, take care of the ball, minimize turnovers, and work on sustaining drives. If the Bucs O can keep from besting themselves, the. We will be pretty darn good.
Additionally, this will keep the D fresh and angry when they are out there.
Clayborn and Price are the two big “nasty nates” on the line. Bowers and McCoy possess extreme talent, and Michael bennett is a diamond in the rough. So long as we can keep assaulting opposing teams with our physical style of play, we will make the playoffs.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
I don’t know why that is funny. Drops and kneel downs are counted against him. They should not. Neither are a fault of his. Throw aways are generally considered a smart move so I don’t count that against him either.
October 7th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
@SteveK I’m with you. 3rd down conversions, no turnovers and few penalties will bring us wins.
October 7th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Joe said: someone can take numbers and statistics and twist them in such a manner that they could “prove” Hank Williams, Jr. is a tolerant soul of a political analyst.
Then Mauha Deeb said: “Statistically Josh Freeman is the second most accurate passer in the game if you remove drops, kneel downs, and throw aways from his attempts.”
(I took the Hitler line out, not bc I’m offended or thought it was wrong, but because I don’t know how to strike through text like that)
October 7th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
At least one of you got it lol I thought Joe might continue. Could have been awesome.
October 7th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
🙂
October 7th, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Doesn’t appear many are worried. I’m not.
I see the O-Line getting better and better.
I see the running game getting and better.
I see Josh getting and better.
The only two things lacking on offense is:
1. I want to see Williams and Benn get open better
2. STOP with the penalties already
I have no doubt though, that teams will HAVE to start game planning Blount more and more and Williams and Been and K2 or Stocker down the seam will have a field day.
October 7th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Besides, if you take away the INTs and all throws on 2nd & 7 and above, he is in the top 5!
October 7th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
@Dave Yeah buddy! lol
October 7th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
F checkdowns and give more touches to Blount. This guy is a beast.
C’mon man this week is going to be Olson if they abandon the run. Feed it to the Big Meat, he’s real hungry.
October 7th, 2011 at 5:50 pm
First off Buc ball is rarely pretty. Even during some of our better teams under other coaches our offense has rarely been a long throwing juggernaut. Last year Freeman made some nice long balls, but that was when alot of offenses were stacking the box on us trying to rattle a young QB that didn’t have a lot of help with his run game until Blount came along.
But one thing I have noticed is by having our offense on the field longer doing the short pass route, is that is has helped make our defense BETTER. Yes the young guys on defense are getting better through some experience and facing some soft o-lines the last couple of games, but by letting those guys stay off the field more and rest up, it is allowing them to do some of their best defensive work that hasn’t been seen since the days of Kiffen being here.
October 7th, 2011 at 7:04 pm
We are going to eat Alex Smith alive! McCoy and company are going hunting, and #11 is in their sites.
IMO, if Bucs D-Line can get to Smith early and hit him in the mouth we got this on lockdown.
October 7th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
Run & stop the run…..
October 8th, 2011 at 12:30 am
One or more points than your opponent. That is the only stat that matters.
October 8th, 2011 at 12:47 am
This is a misconception that I can’t stand.
JUST BECAUSE FREEMAN DOESN’T THROW IT DOWN THE FIELD, DOESN’T MEAN THE PLAY WASN’T DESIGNED TO GO DOWNFIELD.
Quarterbacks don’t just blindly throw to the first read no matter what.
October 8th, 2011 at 12:53 am
favre does. and stafford can.
October 8th, 2011 at 4:07 am
Since when did every supposed educated person out there confuse an analogy for a comparison?
October 8th, 2011 at 9:11 am
Kneel downs don’t count as a pass attempt, they count as a -2 yard run, so they aren’t affecting Freeman’s passing stats.