Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics
April 27th, 2011
For some odd reason in the 21st Century, the concept of statistics in virtually every aspect of sports has exploded.
Numbers, to a degree, can be enlightening. But the numbers crowd has grown so large if not obnoxious, statistics have become suffocating. It has nearly chased Joe away from baseball.
Joe’s waiting for the spreadsheeters to come out with a stat about the number of times a right-handed first baseman farts at the plate facing a lefty throwing in a day game.
Thankfully, the numbers crowd hasn’t killed football (yet) and the stat guys, led by FootballOutsiders.com, often bring thoughtful discussion behind their gibberish.
But eye-RAH! Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune brings an example of when stats either lie, or conflict.
In the five games Talib didn’t dress, the Bucs picked off only three passes. In 11 games with Talib shadowing the opposition’s best receiver, Tampa Bay registered 16 interceptions.
Ah, but here’s the key number: In the five games Aqib Talib didn’t play, the Bucs were 4-1.
So which is it, does the secondary stink like a used septic tank without Talib, or does the team win without him?
Joe, like many reasoned Bucs fans, will clearly take the 4-1 mark.
Now Joe has read how many Bucs fans have dropped to their knees, wailing in tears at the thought of Talib being jettisoned by Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik for his string of violent if not criminal acts, as if said Bucs fans lost their million-dollar lottery ticket.
Yet Joe has seen with his own eyes the Bucs win games without Talib. And Joe has yet to see Talib play in a Pro Bowl. Is Talib talented? Darn right. But will the Bucs crumble and become the Yucs without Talib? Joe isn’t buying that.
April 27th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
We will just be weakened without a true #1 corner against true #1 wr like Calvin johnson Andre johnson Reggie Wayne and so on. So we need to address it or hope that buggers can be that guy
April 27th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
I want Talib to help us and not any other team in the NFL.
April 27th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
No, the Bucs won’t crumble and become the Yucs without Talib, but the Bucs will brittle and become the Yikes without Talib.
April 27th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Per Rah “Stats are for losers “
April 27th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Right-handed first baseman farts at the plate facing a lefty throwing in a day game: FPA (Farts Per Plate Apperance)
0.02 day/ 0.5 night FPA’s
April 27th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Chris
Would this FPA stat, also be used for sharts?
April 27th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Joe, Talib’s absence had nothing positive to do with our wins, if anything we could have won much more easily with him, especially against the Lions and gone 5-0.
I feel he is an outstanding playmaker we cannot give up on yet.
April 27th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
Hey joe, yes you are right. 4-1 without talib. seahawks, Browns, Saints,washington and Lions. Now. When you name those teams. which team has a actual threat #1 WR? like most knowledgable people would say would be only calvin johnson. Want some statistics? Calvin johnson had 10 receptions for 152 yards a season HIGH. If the bucs get rid of aqib talib you are matching your biggest need now at CORNER. im sorry EJ biggers is nothing more then a #2 i prefer him at slot. but thinking 35 year old ronde barber covering, andre johnson, calvin johnson(again, maybe he doesn’t get beat as bad) greg jennings and that stacked offense, miles austin and the cowboys stacked offense, roddy white, reggie wayne and the peyton manning passing show. Yes like you said 4-1 against what 1 winning team? and what 1 actual threat reciever? the schedule this year we have is much more difficult and aqib will be needed more then ever. But hey you want him cut and if you think EJ biggers is the man and some 2nd or 3rd round corner can step up against any of those guys my hat is off to you. But if the bucs actually do indeed cut him if he isent charged(which i will be shocked) our chances of winning drop alot more then people think. You cant take your arguably best defensive player and think your gonna be better. This whole already assuming he is guily thing and everyone want him to be cut is so old. None of us were there and none of us know what happened. Unlike you, me and or any of us on this forum. Raheem is close to aqib and so is mark dominik. They actually care about who he is as a person and releasing could be one of the worst things. who knows what he could go get into. People need help and mentor’s. If anything the buccaneers as a team should have a vote wether to keep him or not. not rick stroud or joe or any of these analyst.
April 27th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Jonny finally i meet someone with some sense. ever think maybe is aqib was playing we would have been 5-0 went 11-5 and made playoffs? hmm.
April 27th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
OAK-
Sharts/sharting, SPA’s, are a totally different stat but has a direct correlation with FPA’s.
I once saw a right-hander go all preseason with a 0.037/0.75 FPA and 0.9 SPA!…BUT he crapped himself all season long.
April 27th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Chris
Now that’s some funny $h!t
April 27th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
Just like they have been finding other good players in the draft, there is always someone else who can do the job. He has been unreliable with injuries and a complete turd off the field. Rumors are he is the only sore thumb in the locker room too.
I have no problem getting rid of him and have confidence in Dominck replacing him this year or next year.
To start the season, I have confidence in Biggers, Barber, and Lewis and a pass rush will go A LONG WAY to making the whole secondary weven better.
April 27th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
DYLAN
“They actually care about who he is as a person and releasing could be one of the worst things. who knows what he could go get into. People need help and mentor’s. ”
Yes, but they have been doing that for years now and his transgressions are getting worse. There comes a point where you cut the cord and move on… with a person and as a team.
April 27th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
In baseball the skid marks are on the outside, or Brown side out.
As mad as I get at Talib and his shenanigans, I don’t want to see him go. I’d rather see a very hardcore intervention program for him with no suspension or prison time.
April 27th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Arguably our best defensive player is about to leave and some are supporting this? He isn’t convicted of anything. Does anyone really think that with Grimm (slow/not a coverage guy), Sean Jones (average), EJ Biggers (up and coming guy but where does he cap off), and Ronde (45 years old) we will be able to keep up with anyone, especially without a pass rush?
If we do actually plan on getting rid of Talib, I pray we snatch up Ras-I or Johnny Patrick in the 2nd.
April 27th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
@DAVE
Could you show me any sources that mention Talib being a sore thumb in the locker room?
April 27th, 2011 at 5:54 pm
“Joe’s waiting for the spreadsheeters to come out with a stat about the number of times a right-handed first baseman farts at the plate facing a lefty throwing in a day game.”
Its twice as bad in Texas
Talib makes us better, hands down. No, we won’t be the Yucs without him, but why go there if we don’t have to?
April 27th, 2011 at 7:57 pm
Ah, but it wasn’t because Talib wasn’t doing his job, was it? Clearly, he was not the reason they lost games.
April 27th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Oh, dear lord. Joe, are you actually going to sit there and suggest that Talib is the reason for those losses????
And no Pro Bowl??? Come on now, you know the Bucs players have been snubbed in recent years from the Pro Bowl, with only the rare occasion being more than an alternate.
I’m sorry, Joe, but this is creative journalism. You are trying to find ways to justify cutting Talib, and you are bending the facts to suit your agenda in this.
Yes, the Bucs have won games. But of the games they’ve lost, how often was talib the cause or in how many of those games did he not give 100%?
So don’t sit there and try to make people think Talib was the cause of those losses. And even though that is not what you said directly, you certainly are inferring it.
Clearly you are trying to suggest that readers/fans have to choose between one or the other. That’s not the case. They can easily have both.
And, as long as you are tossing out stats, why not pull up all the games Talib played in? Why edit the list?
The truth is, the Bucs went 6-5 WITH Talib in the games he played in. They had a WINNING RECORD WITH HIM.
Or how about him having 6 of 19 picks for the Bucs last year? Or the fact that Ronde only had half that many, Grimm only had 1/3 that many and the rest of the team picks? All by a differnt person each time.
Or how about the fact that Talib scored 1/3 of the TDs off Interceptions last year?
Come on now…if you want to use stats, use them all, don’t pick a small sampling of games because they suit your agenda.
April 27th, 2011 at 8:20 pm
One more stat…of the 10 wins last year, Talib played in 6 of them. 6 of 10.
April 27th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
And it’s amazing how many stats throws out there when the Bucs are winning. Methinks that statement was wrong.
April 27th, 2011 at 8:28 pm
And while on the subject of stats, for years stat geeks have beentold stats do not matter. It’s what a guy does on the field that counts.
That’s bull.
If Warren Sapp had only 3 sacks per year, don’t tell me people would not have wanted him cut.
If Styles White had more sacks, would you still want him cut?
Please.
April 27th, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Pete:
Oh, dear lord. Joe, are you actually going to sit there and suggest that Talib is the reason for those losses????
Talk about twisting words! 🙂
April 28th, 2011 at 2:09 am
Reading all the posts here and it’s shocking how quick everyone forgot that we drafted Myron Lewis last year and at the end of the year he was starting to look real good.
April 28th, 2011 at 2:27 am
@JT4ya
Not forgetting, just remembering that we needed a CB before this Talib mess. We still needed someone on the opposite side. We still do.
April 28th, 2011 at 4:06 am
There is no doubt we can win without Talib. Besides Freeman, I don’t think any one player is that important where we can’t win without him. He’s not yet an ELITE CB. But in absolutely no way shape or form are we better without Talib. That’s just silly talk! Take him away in the Arizona and Cincinnati games – do we win? Probably not. That’s 2 games and the difference between going 10-6 and 8-8. Of course it’s all speculation, but I sure like our chances better with him on the field than not. But that’s just me.