Bucs Will Be Good; Just Not Yet
August 16th, 2010
As regular readers of Joe know, Joe thinks the world of Pat Kirwan. The CBSSports.com and Sirius NFL Radio analyst is usually dead-on in his observations.
Joe has liberally (and still has to clean out his notes) brought readers juicy nuggets from Kirwan’s recent day at One Buc Palace where he had full reign of the place and queried Bucs players and coaches in depth.
As a result, Kirwan typed a preview for the Bucs on NFL.com. In short, Kirwan likes the Bucs and believes they will be good. Just not in 2010.
Raheem Morris can motivate his young team, but until the real games start, it will be impossible to determine if this talented group can win games this year. A few years from now they could be a force in the NFC South with Josh Freeman, their 6-foot-6, 260-pound signal-caller. For now, however, they are a fearless group ready for an uphill climb towards respectability.
The Bucs have four of their first six games at home and a few of those games are winnable. A fast start would help their confidence, and allow them to build on last season’s 2-1 finish.
There are plenty of other morsels in Kirwan’s piece linked above that Joe strongly recommends readers to devour. But to finish, Kirwan believes it is “unrealistic” to expect the Bucs to finish .500 or better this season.
August 16th, 2010 at 11:24 am
I have a feeling we will see a lot of so called analyst, who bashed the Bucs all throughout the off season, come out a sort of back track on their words. I look forward to that douche Schein and Gannon. I would be surprised if we end up with 8 wins. But, Shein and Gannonn and some of these other guys act like the Bucs have 10 years of futility ahead of them
August 16th, 2010 at 11:27 am
A “few years”?
To heck with that noise!
August 16th, 2010 at 11:34 am
nick:
Joe Trusts you emailed Adam Schein last year with your outrage about how he was wrong about the Bucs.
Schein predicted the Bucs would win four games.
August 16th, 2010 at 11:39 am
so what joe doesn’t mean hes right..are we not better than last year?the teams we play are alil easier right?So wtf is it so hard to belive that we will win 8 to 9 games this season it happens all the time…If we dont we can bitch then..but come-on ppl
August 16th, 2010 at 11:49 am
Joe, Adam isn’t a genius because of his prediction last year. Anyone in their right mind knew the Bucs would struggle. The videos of him you have posted have been more about bashing than any real analysis.
August 16th, 2010 at 11:57 am
goodfellajay:
True, but the Bucs are counting on way too many rookies and second-year guys to be studs this year in order to win eight or more games. That doesn’t happen all the time.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
Joe, I respect Kirwan’s superb knowlegde of the NFL. But I can’t help but think that the Buc’s will be a little better than a below .500 team. I’m not saying they’ll be a playoff team, but I don’t think they’ll be a push over, either.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Wildcard in playoffs
Just throwin’ that out there.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Uh, Cannon, no.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
I disagree with both Kirwin and you Joe, sorry. Color me optimistic, but I think if the Bucs can squeeze 2-3 wins out of the first 5 games, they will have enough ingame work to take the next step. Then they could actually win 7 of the next 11 games in theory.
The would put them at either 9-7 or 10-6.
The main thing I believe people are missing is progression. The team could accidently win early in the season, but later, as their experience builds, each player will begin to “turn the lights on” so to speak. Maybe not all at once, but perhaps a couple at a time…resulting in more wins.
Couple that with the easier schedule, and we have a 500+ season.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Schein is entitled to his opinions.But he doesn’t have to be so obnoxous and hateful with them.One terrible year and he unloads on the bucs like we are the worse team ever.I agree with nick,I can’t wait until this jackoff has to eat his words.
August 16th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Wildcats? Wow, that’s a loose cannon !! Lol
August 16th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Another thought…more of a question actually…which positions historically learn the quickest?
Meaning, when they come in as rookies, what are the fastest adjusting positions (historically)?
August 16th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
Runnings backs Pete. Joe supects — educated guess — linebackers and/or cornerbacks would be second.
Kirwan did some research back over the summer — Joe linked to it — that suggested defensive tackle was one of the hardest positions for a rookie to learn. In the numbers that Kirwan posted, Roy Miller actually graded out better than defensive tackles drafted in the first round last year. That’s a plus!
August 16th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
That’s really cool. Of those DTs he researched, I wonder if they all started as rookies. I’ll have to dig around for that stuff.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Could be right about RBs, but if you look at WRs recently, I think you’ll see they can impact (not necessarily Pro Bowl, but impact) immediately. Look at Percy Harvin last year, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, among others. WRs have proven very quick to impact a team. Problem with WRs is there is usually a “sophomore slump”. They get by on speed and talent their rookie year, but by year 2, defenses have started to figure out tendencies. If Stroughter can have a good year 2, and Williams and Benn can have an “impact”, I think we’re greatly improved over last year. It may take longer for our 2 DTs to impact as much, but then again, look what we had last year, I can’t see a drop off at all, even if they struggle as rookies. Even a slight improvement at DT could change the whole D.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Some of you guys need to get real. The Bucs have ZERO depth. Injuries WILL happen. If almost anybody gets hurt, its over. Hell, if Freeman gets hurt, we won’t win a single game.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
I guess we should call you Mr. Pessimistic Louie.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
I thought it was a good writeup overall. Kirwan knows football pretty well and knows when to hedge bets, especially with a team as young as ours.
It’s early. Schiens always been a douche. Too much salt being given to either really is a bad thing.
This team will win at least 5 and at most 11. How’s that for a prediction?
I’d say the over/under is at 6.5.
August 16th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Louie your name says it all, remind me why are you a fan?? Not only are we a better team with a year under impact players belts but the players finally have system they are comfortable in. I think that is going to play a huge role in increased wins. Have we not forgotten that
August 16th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
we had players playing under a offense and defensive scheme they had no idea how to run last year for most of the season? I agree with Pete, I honestly think we win 8-9 games.
August 16th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
BamBamBuc:
Of late you are correct about wide receivers. For a long time there, it was a very risky pick drafting a wide receiver in the first round.
The first receiver I thought of as recently having an impact as a rookie was Percy Harvin.
August 16th, 2010 at 4:42 pm
I was just looking from the perspective that if young WRs can help this year (Stroughter and Williams, maybe Benn), that would be huge. The DTs we all expect to take time to grow, but I think many believe it can’t be worse than last year. Simply having the speed and athleticism McCoy and Price have will be an upgrade over last year.
August 17th, 2010 at 10:09 am
It’s a hard team to predict- we have some talent at Oline, LB. Secondary, and TE. We have inexperienced but talented players at WR,RB, and Dline. Tough ta figure! But it really all comes down to one guy- Josh Freeman. And it’s really a question of Faith- do you believe in this guy! The Media isn’t gonna take a chance on young talent, they don’t risk looking bad based on young Qbs. It’s easier to just base everything on last year, and predict the Patriots and the Saints.but life isn’t like that! Football is decided by PLAYERS, not statistics, not trends. Reporters aren’t payed to produce on the field. They are payed to review the work of those who produce! Like a restaurant critic- they ain’t cooking,they are just eating and talking about it! And they don’t take risk in print. They play it safe. For us , this team all boils down to faith- do you think Freeman can lead this team to victories? Do you believe in Josh ? If you do, then anything is possible this season! Because the NFL is all about Qbs! If Brett Farve is on your team- you are a contender, same with Payton Manning. If Josh is really turning into a franchise QB- then this team can win- NOW!