The Over/Under For Bucs Wins In 2010
May 6th, 2010
Putting moves on an NFL tackling dummy is one thing for rookie Brian Price. Putting moves on an NFL guard will be quite another.
Joe is somewhat excited about the Bucs coming off the draft. This means the NFL, and the Bucs, have done their job.
An indirect result of all the hype surrounding the NFL draft is to get NFL fans worked up for the coming season. Largely, it’s an annual success story and it has worked on Joe as well.
While Joe has high hopes — key word there, “hopes” — for the 2010 campaign, reality slowly tends to creep back into focus.
It seems eye-RAH! Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune isn’t buying the draft hype. It appears he has believes expectations for the Bucs are lower than last season, so he wrote on the TBO.com Bucs Twitter feed.
A year ago, the over-under number on Buccaneer victories was 6.5. I have to think the number for the 2010 season will be in the 5 range.
Sadly, Twitter limits posts to 140 characters, so Kaufman couldn’t go into detail what leads him to believe this.
Joe was asked yesterday by a highly-prominent, highly-visible media outlet to help put together a Bucs season preview. Joe doesn’t know if he’s at liberty to release who assigned Joe this project (no, it’s not the Bristol Bolsheviks), but Joe will announce where it can be read at the appropriate time.
In the preview Joe worked on last night, he came to the realization that the Bucs seem to be putting a lot of hopes and, in turn, pressure, on their rookie defensive tackles and wide receivers, which may be unfair to the rookies.
Let’s be honest; how many rookies step off a college campus onto an NFL practice field and excel right away? Not many.
For the Bucs to expect four to do so is pushing their luck, at least for this season, at least for the immediate future.
Of course, Joe hopes all four rookies are studs right away. But Joe can see where and how Kaufman is coming to his conclusion.
To expect four rookies not to have a learning curve, well, that’s likely wishful thinking.
May 6th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
4-5… 5 is a good one for optimistic Bucs fans… but vegas isn’t a charity… they will give Tampa a 3.
May 6th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
I can last year’s over/under as 6.5 going into the seaon., we were coming off a 9-7 campaign (at one point, were 9-3) with a drastic change in front office and coaching stuff. We added some veteran talent (Winslow, Ward and Crowell), and the company line was “we fully expect this team to be in the playoffs.” There was reason to EXPECT that if there was a drop off, it wouldn’t be more than a couple games.
I would put the over/under for this year at about 4.5. Without any major changes to the coaching staff or adding proven talent to a team that went 3-13, you can’t EXPECT them be markedly better than what they did the year before (many people, included myself, want them to be markedly better). Even if they did make vast changes to staff and/or roster, few people would predict a 3-13 team to go better than 6-10 the next year.
The expectations of a team are largely based on how well they did the previous season, so it makes sense that expectations going into 2010 will be lower than what they were going into 2009.
May 6th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
Here is my two cents. The Bucs were “not good” to be kind in the early stages of last year, but after some changes and Raheem taking over the defense, they proved to be competitive later in the year. All this with the rooster they had last year and without a full offseason under Rah and Olsen. So far this year, they have upgraded their talent on both sides of the ball, factor in an entire off season with Olsen and Rah installing their system, and you have Josh with a season and this offseason under his belt, I find it really hard to believe that the Bucs can take a step back.
If your a believer in schedules, the Bucs schedule on paper is also easier(cross your fingers).
I have them winning 7-9 games.
May 6th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
I agree with you on this one Joe. While I want all the rookies to have great seasons, it just isn’t going to happen. Here’s to hoping one of them has a standout year!
May 6th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Steve from Oregon:
That’s a fair analysis.
May 6th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Agree with Steve 7-9 but if Josh off season work pays off it can be 9-7 cause we are better than the Panthers
May 6th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
I agree that expecting rookie talent to step in and immediately have success is asking a LOT. I also agree with Steve and his analysis of the schedule and time in the system.
I would also add this. We have two rookie WRs, and I would ask if anyone believes that neither of these two will be better than Clayton? If either one is better than Clayton, the team has improved, even with a rookie, even with that rookie not being an instant superstar. I would also add that AB (Bryant) was injured a significant part of last year. If either of the rookies were to be healthy the entire season, I see that as improvement.
As for our new DT’s… we mainly had Hovan and Sims with Miller rotating in last season. We may see a drop off from Hovan, but again I ask if anyone believes neither of the two rookies will be better than Sims? I think this is also immediate improvement at least at one DT spot. It should at least balance out (positive/negative), and Miller now has a year under his belt which could shift this to a positive.
We were a 3-13 team last year. It’s not hard to figure that even rookies could make this team better than last year. Question is… how much? I’m in the group of 7 to 9 wins this year based on schedule, rookie impact, and continuity.
May 6th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
Realistically, Joe, Not only can you “not” expect rookies to come straight off a college campus and excel, you cannot even expect them to keep up with real veterans of the game. Yes, McCoy may have a gome or 2 where he looks like Sapp of old. But 5 games out of 6 he is going to look like Booger McFarlane after Sapp left. None existant. Same for Price. (I expect price to be better than McCoy). It just isn’t feasible for any of them to come straight from college and be good in their 1 year. Especially if they just get “called out” in the media, instead of coached, like last year! I expect 3-4 wins. 5 if the football Gods are kind!
May 6th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
The bucs will win at least 6 or 7 games after Josh Freeman came in last year they went 3-6 with more experience for the whole team and a easier schedule how could you only think the will only win four games
May 6th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Vegas has missed on the over under year thing before…case in point Atlanta two years ago. They are usually pretty good though. I understand where Tampa 2 is coming from, but I refuse to be so sure in either direction. I agree with the 7 and 9 based on schedule and continuity. Last year’s guys will be better, and they will all be using one system.
Now, it may be a reach for all four or five rookies to hit, but we have two example in Tampa. Clayton and Williams hit their rookie years…Oh, well let’s hope these guys hit their rookie year and keep on rolling. Injuries and concentration issues can be checked at the door please.
May 6th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Well, we are going to the playoffs this year guys, maybe not as division champions, but certainly as a wild card. Tampa beat the NFL Champion Saints at home, minus all the new talent we just drafted. Our schedule is no where near as bad as last year. The players love Raheem, and will play hard for him. Bates and Jagged Zinsky are gone. This is an exciting time to be a Tampa Bay Fan, and also an excellent time to get season tickets, before the fair weather Tampa fans jump back on the bandwagon.
May 6th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Any more wins than 3 and I will be damn surprised. If they don’t beat Cleveland, 0-5 start is almost inevitable.
May 6th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Vegas doesn’t make actual predictions , they just place the line on a number that they knows they will get even money bet on both sides.
The line is determined by public perception , that is why they will move the line if need be to even out the betting. Vegas doesn’t take the chance of guessing wrong , they leave that to us.
May 6th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
I also see that Brian Price chose #92 ??
He is looking more and more like Booger McFarland every day , LOL.
May 6th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Eric you don’t know what youre talking about youre probably a falcon fan
May 6th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
We are three years ahead of schedule!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
I think Steve from Oregon put it best and I believe we shall thrive better in “one” offensive and defensive system. Freeman will be more settled in, the O line will know what blocking scheme they are going to do, the young players improved alot towards the end last year and should be much more improved this season (without all the confusion), and if 2 of our rookies shine as starters and the rest contribute on special teams, we are a better team playing an easier schedule. Expect to see inconsistancies with so many young players but over all we should win a few early games and then again finish even stronger than last year giving us 6-7 wins.
May 6th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
We really need for that Big FB we just signed to work out to help out our struggling short yardage and red zone offense. How many times were we inches away from winning or extending plays (Skins game). A produtive (true) FB and a field goal kicker (that doesnt miss) and we are in business.
May 6th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
We would be six years ahead of schedule if we never hired Bates and Jags , and had a QB battle in training camp between two bums.
May 7th, 2010 at 6:43 am
@Eric
It’s that “3 years ahead of schedule” that makes me believe that we are in for another year of “comedy of errors”. They had a good draft. that cannot be denied. But if you think back to last year when some good young players were just called out in the Media instead of being taught the basics, that is what holds back my optimism. While any good army or team needs a good General, I’m afraid that we go into the 2010 season with Elmer Fudd as our leader once again.
May 8th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
I think our wins this year will come against
Cleveland
St Louis
Carolina (1)
Detroit
Couple of the others will be a toss up that could literally go either way. Best we do this year is probably 5 wins. There are a lot of new players on the team and it’s a transition year. We either transition into a well rounded team or remain mired in mediocrity.