Koetter Talks Two-Point Commitment
June 17th, 2016
Roberto Aguayo versus going for two.
Dirk Koetter is an old school coach happy to be flexible and learn as he goes, but Koetter has no interest in being a guinea pig.
Koetter and the dean of Tampa Bay sports radio, Steve Duemig of WDAE-AM 620, spoke about the hot NFL topic of committing to two-point conversions last night.
The Bucs’ new head coach likes the aggression of going for two, and the data supporting it, but Koetter made it clear the reality of eliminating extra points doesn’t interest in him.
“We’ve studied it, and mathematically, it does make sense,” Koetter said of going for a two-point conversion every time.
“The hard thing is, you know, it’s like 48 percent,” Koetter said. “Say we go out there that first game, and we score three touchdowns and we don’t make any two pointers and we lose 21-18. Who’s going to get killed? You’re going to be on 620 [radio] and you’re going to be dog-cussin’ me the whole time.
“It’s just there’s just no groundwork. It’s never been proven. Pittsburgh went for it 11 times last year. I think they made seven or eight, but if you actually went for it 48 or 50 times, and you have one of those games when you’re 0-for-6. … To commit to it for a whole year, no, I would be scared to do it. And we didn’t, we drafted a heck of a kicker, Roberto Aguayo. Very excited about him and what he brings to the table. We won’t be doing it, but maybe somebody will.”
Joe certainly understands Koetter’s stance on going for two and takes no issue with it, though the Bucs have every weapon imaginable for two point-conversions, from giant wide receivers and tight ends to running backs with excellent hands, plus a mobile quarterback and a sound offensive line.
Enjoy the full Koetter-Duemig audio below:
June 17th, 2016 at 10:44 am
Call me an old-school conservative……but for me, you go for 2 when you are down by 8 or 16……or a few other select game situations….maybe if there’s a penalty & you go from the 1……
June 17th, 2016 at 10:50 am
Jon Gruden once went for two, down by a point with no time left on the clock.. And he made it, won the game and went home.
June 17th, 2016 at 11:04 am
I agree tbbf….GO BUCS!!!!
June 17th, 2016 at 12:04 pm
Yeah it’s never been done on a large scale. There are a few reasons to think it may not be good but you never know.
There are only so many plays you can run there and if you do it all the time it will become something the other team game plans for and is likely able to stop more frequently.
Also – if you’re the type of coach that wants to save their best scoring plays for key game situations you’d probably want to avoid going for 2 all the time because you’re giving away a lot of your scoring plays.
The only way I think it works is if you just run a standard shotgun pass play with a few options every time and have the types of WRs that can win contested or beat coverage more often than not on pure ability along with a really good QB. So even if the D knows what you’re going to do you convert more than 50% because of the players you have. Pitt can probably pull it off with Ben/Brown. It is crazy how good ANtonio Brown is at getting open in the end zone with such consistency
June 17th, 2016 at 12:11 pm
It’s like the stock market. You don’t buy stocks if you need the money soon because it’s too volatile even if it’s the best move in the long run. Koetter correctly identifies the problem with always gong for 2: volatility.
June 17th, 2016 at 12:22 pm
We drafted a kicker in the second round. That ends any argument for the two point play by the Bucs!
June 17th, 2016 at 1:58 pm
Going for 2 every time is not something I would support. If a team wanted to expand their use of 2pt conversation there is a much better method………………………….
(Pitts. 11 trys was because Scobbee couldnt make the XP consistently, a problem I hope we never have)
When you score your first TD(hopefully in the lead) you go for 2. You then kick the XP the rest of game unless it’s very late and 2 is needed. If you miss the first 2 of you cut your losses. If you make the 2 your golden and have an extra point of cushion in your advantage.
At the end of the day if the math tells you 2pt is at 48% your realistically hoping to get a single extra point throughout an entire game(if you go for 2 Everytime). So why not go for it once?……and if you make it why gamble the point gained by trying it again?
Another factor if favor of trying it once is the regularity of 4 point leads…….Had you missed the 2pt it would now be a 3 point lead. While 4 points is better it changes the strategy of the final two minutes, that missed point could actually be beneficial especially when facing a great QB like Brees or Brady.
June 17th, 2016 at 3:07 pm
BigHog sums it up best. We didn’t draft a kicker in the 2nd round for nothing. Going for 2 pts. is purely situational in my book.
June 17th, 2016 at 3:32 pm
Saw a story a while back about a high school coach who goes for 2 and goes for it on fourth down every time if they are out past their own 35 yard line.
The coach says he’s done the math and it works out about 80% of the time. Apparently some college and even some NFL coaches have gone to seek his advice / pick his brain.
June 17th, 2016 at 4:59 pm
I think when they moved the extra point, it put more value on kickers and our GM understands that. The rest of the NFL hasn’t caught on yet. And some on this board haven’t either.
June 18th, 2016 at 3:20 pm
[…] “We’ve studied it, and mathematically, it does make sense,” Koetter said, via JoeBucsFan.com. […]
June 18th, 2016 at 11:00 pm
Giant receivers & tightends and a qb not afraid to beat feet towards the endzone and still the lowest in scoring tds inside the 20 so that’s gonna help us this year on 2pt conversions. In the words of LLCoolJ No I don’t think so! You’re smoking some bad Cali if you think it will!
June 18th, 2016 at 11:08 pm
Clown alert clown alert! The post above my last. 2 pts conversions are a someting you have to do situation, when you need to tie a game. You go for it every time and see how many games you lose by that 1 almost guaranteed point you forfeit!
June 19th, 2016 at 8:13 am
The reason teams will not be going for 2 on a regular basis is, as Koetter points out early in the conversation, the success rate is 48%.
That would be the equivalent of 96% on PATS, which would be disastrously low.
The PAT rule change has emphasized accurate kickers. The Bucs saw first hand last season how difficult it is to win in the NFL without one.
June 19th, 2016 at 5:47 pm
[…] Dirk Koetter knows that he should be going for two a lot more often, but he really doesn’t want to. Which is why he came up with a silly rationalization to not do so, as he explained to Steve Duemig of 620 WDAE this morning (via JoeBucsFan). […]